Much could still go awry. But for now, we play the cards we are dealt. Here’s our College Football Playoff predictions.
With three more weeks of regular-season games and conference championships still to come, many questions linger.
Maybe the most pressing: Will there be space in the 12-team College Football Playoff for an at-large team from outside the Big Ten and SEC?
The answer might be unsatisfying for almost everyone: Yes, but it will probably be Notre Dame. Then again, the Fighting Irish bowing out before Selection Sunday would open the door to the most chaotic outcome possible.
A Notre Dame loss in Week 12 to Army would leave the possibility that the Black Knights win the AAC with an unbeaten record and – maybe, just maybe – pave the way for two Group of Five teams to make the field and the Big 12 to miss out altogether.
Imagine that Brett Yorkmark press conference.
Much could still go awry. But for now, we play the cards we are dealt. Here’s my projection of where things will land in less than a month, with data from Opta Analyst providing key context.
That includes each team’s TRACR rating and “playoff potential” score (as of Wednesday). Playoff potential is a projection of how a team’s resume will look on Selection Sunday. Scores of 90 and up indicate an ironclad playoff case, while 80-90 puts a team in the mix and anything below that suggests a bid is pretty much a long shot.
1. Ohio State (8-1)
- Current committee rank: No. 2
- TRACR: 36.3 (No. 1)
- Playoff Potential: 99.8 (No. 1)
Ohio State’s ranking here reflects my belief that they’ll win a Big Ten Championship rematch with Oregon, which beat them by a point in Eugene a few weeks ago. That game is a tossup, though, so don’t read too much into which Big Ten team slots at No. 1 in the College Football Playoff rankings and who lands between No. 5 and 7 with a home game in the first round.
Why the belief in Ohio State? Mainly because after I wrote about the Buckeyes’ short-yardage running woes, they bullied Penn State’s defensive line to close out a key win. The Buckeyes’ 36.3 TRACR rating is the best in the sport, and I think Opta computers are right.
2. Texas (8-1)
- Current committee rank: No. 3
- TRACR: 35.1 (No. 2)
- Playoff potential: 99.6 (No. 3)
The Longhorns are the best bet to win the SEC, and whoever takes that crown will seed no worse than No. 2 in the playoff field. I like how the Longhorns grow good running backs on trees, and I like how Steve Sarkisian has dialed up winning game plans for Quinn Ewers after an injury earlier in the season seemed to rob him of some of the typical zip he puts on the ball.
Most importantly, the Horns have the best defensive TRACR in the country and have mostly dominated on that side of the ball. (The main exceptions are games against Georgia and Vanderbilt in which turnovers put the defense in losing positions.)
3. Miami (9-1)
- Current committee rank: No. 9
- TRACR: 19.7 (16th)
- Playoff potential: 58.1 (11th)
The Hurricanes are the best team in the ACC, and they are still a good reasonable to play in the conference title game even after a disappointing Week 11 loss at Georgia Tech. Miami’s defense (52nd in TRACR) prevents it from being a real national title contender, and no amount of superheroism on Cam Ward’s part will be enough to get the team through three playoff games unscathed.
But those are problems for another day, and avoiding an upset against Clemson or SMU in the ACC Championship will get The U to this spot with an automatic bye as one of the top four conference champions.
4. BYU (9-0)
- Current committee rank: No. 6
- TRACR: 8.5 (45th)
- Playoff potential: 12.6 (19th)
The Cougars are good. Are they good? The jury is still out, and I do not expect them to turn their current 9-0 mark into a 12-0 regular season. I expect BYU to lose one of its next two games against Kansas or at Arizona State.
The Jayhawks have had a miserable year but might have finally solved their offensive woes in an upset of Iowa State last week, and KU’s 14.5 TRACR (ranked 27th) outflanks BYU’s 8.5 (45th). But the nice thing about starting 9-0 is that BYU has margin for error, and as the only near certainty to play in the Big 12 Championship, the team is the sensible pick for this automatic bid.
5. Oregon (10-0)
- Current committee rank: No. 1
- TRACR: 23.1 (10th)
- Playoff potential: 90.8 (No. 7)
The Ducks will either land here or as the highest-ranked team at No. 1, depending on how that date with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship goes.
They’ll be a threat to win the whole thing. But they will be a much bigger threat if receiver Tez Johnson, who got hurt in a Week 10 at Michigan, gets back to good health.
6. Penn State (8-1)
- Current committee rank: No. 4
- TRACR: 21.1 (13th)
- Playoff potential: 61.1 (10th)
The Nittany Lions can’t be considered a national title contender, given James Franklin’s inability to get over the hump against the elite teams that pop up on their schedule. But Penn State is clearly a playoff team, and nothing we’ve seen from the Lions so far indicates that they will do anything against Purdue, Minnesota, or Maryland other than blow those teams out.
Expect Penn State to make the College Football Playoff at 11-1 with its best wins having come against middling Big Ten teams like Illinois, USC and Wisconsin.
7. Notre Dame (8-1)
- Current committee rank: No. 8
- TRACR: 26.6 (No. 8)
- Playoff potential: 84.1 (No. 9)
The formula for the Irish is simple: Win out, and you’re in. Don’t, and you’re not. They’ll be favored all the way in against Virginia, Army and USC, but the latter two aren’t walks.
Army has its own playoff aspirations and runs a more effective version of the flexbone offense that Notre Dame beat against Navy in Week 9. USC is a road game, and the Trojans are more dangerous than a 4-5 record with five one-score losses indicates. Notre Dame erased its margin for error when it lost to NIU in Week 2.
8. Georgia (7-2)
- Current committee rank: 12th
- TRACR: 30.8 (No. 7)
- Playoff potential: 88.8 (No. 8)
The Bulldogs have two losses, but I don’t think they’ll take any more. With the committee slotting the Dawgs at No. 12 this week, it seems clear that beating Tennessee in Athens on Saturday and then handling pleasantries against UMass and Georgia Tech will preserve their place in the top 12 when the committee gets around to final decisions.
But a road game in the first round likely awaits.
9. Indiana (10-0)
- Current committee rank: No. 5
- TRACR: 31.0 (No. 6)
- Playoff potential: 99.6 (No. 3)
The Hoosiers are 10-0 and having a dream season in every way. That dream is due for an interruption when IU visits Ohio State in two weeks, but I believe Indiana will keep a defeat close enough that as long as the Hoosiers don’t mess up against rival Purdue the week after that, they’ll preserve a playoff spot.
Purdue may be the worst team in the Power Four – and to that point, Indiana would have an 11-1 record without a single win against a team that hasn’t lost at least four games. I expect that would be enough, because I don’t think the committee will try to justify excluding a one-loss Big Ten team.
The Hoosiers’ 99.6 playoff potential score reflects that Opta computers feel the same way: Based on past committee behavior, an 11-1 Big Ten team missing a 12-team field would be bizarre. (Is that me insisting there’s no way the bureaucrats screw IU in favor of, say, a 10-2 Alabama? No.)
10. Tennessee (8-1)
- Current committee rank: No. 7
- TRACR: 32.3 (No. 5)
- Playoff potential: 97.3 (No. 6)
A loss to Georgia this weekend could doom the Vols but probably would not, given a head-to-head win against Alabama and the likelihood that the committee will show a lot of deference to 10-2 SEC teams. Tennessee has a talented roster and should do well in the more “beauty contest”-centric parts of committee evaluation.
While I think the committee will do everything it can to include a 10-2 Bama, it won’t be able to justify that against a Tennessee team with the same record and a win over the Tide. It is possible, after last year’s dismal decision to bounce unbeaten Florida State in favor of 12-1 Alabama, that the committee finds a way to get Bama into the field this year.
But in the scenarios contemplated here, that would be more likely to come at the expense of an 11-1 Indiana than a 10-2 Tennessee.
11. Alabama (7-2)
- Current committee rank: 10th
- TRACR: 34.2 (No. 4)
- Playoff potential: 97.4 (No. 5)
Alabama is poised to finish 10-2, with the same record as an Ole Miss team that isn’t on its schedule this year. The committee can’t put a 10-2 Bama over a 10-2 Tennessee, but it can over Ole Miss, and it appears slightly favored to do so based on ranking Alabama No. 10 and Ole Miss No. 11 this week.
Add in that the tiebreaker situation currently looks good for Bama to get to the SEC Championship against either Texas or Texas A&M, and the Tide have a narrow but workable inside track to remain in the field. It would only take one or two things falling out of place elsewhere, though, for Ole Miss to snare this spot.
12. Boise State (8-1)
- Current committee rank: 13th
- TRACR: 10.9 (38th)
- Playoff potential: 17.9 (16th)
The committee likes the Broncos a lot, and given that it has no choice but to include a Group of Five team, I think it may pat itself on the back by slotting Boise higher than No. 12. But for now, this is the safest place to project the Broncos.
Phenomenal running back Ashton Jeanty is part of a physical run game that the committee seems to respect more than some of the elite non-power offenses of years past.
First four teams out: Ole Miss, Kansas State, SMU, Clemson
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