Yes, most, if not all QBs aren’t as effective under pressure. But the ones who can hang tough and avoid disaster are often the best in those situations. We take a closer look at 2024 QB performance under pressure.
It is no secret that quarterbacks can determine the outcomes of games – and even entire seasons – in the NFL.
But certain changes in the modern era have made traditional counting statistics less reliable when analyzing who the best and worst quarterbacks are in a given season.
Completion percentage numbers have been inflated by the rise of screens, swings and pop passes, while yardage and touchdown totals can be buoyed in garbage time or against soft defenses. The very best passers, however, have always been able to deliver while under duress, and that remains true in 2024.
Our data team has tracked every pass thrown this season, allowing us to focus just on plays in which at least one defender logs a pressure. We’re going to look at quarterbacks who have a minimum 50 adjusted pass attempts while under pressure (excludes throwaways and spikes).
But it’s important to note that Geno Smith of the Seattle Seahawks (202), Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs (185), C.J. Stroud of the Houston Texans (185), Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals (180) and Matthew Stafford of the Los Angeles Rams (179) have attempted the most passes in the NFL while under duress.
And Drew Lock of the New York Giants (41.8%), Anthony Richardson of the Indianapolis Colts (40.7%), Derek Carr of the New Orleans Saints (40.5%), Jacoby Brissett of the New England Patriots (40.1%) and Deshaun Watson of the Cleveland Browns (39.7%) have thrown the highest percentage of their adjusted attempts under pressure.
So when the heat is on, who has delivered this season and who has crumbled under the pressure?
Pressure Point No. 1: Adjusted Completion Percentage (NFL Average: 57.3%)
- The Top: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (67.4%)
- The Bottom: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (37.9%)
Tagovailoa ranks third in the NFL with a 74.6 completion percentage on his adjusted attempts, and that number only dips to 67.4% while being pressured. That’s important because Tua is for the most part able to maintain his efficiency under duress.
Only Will Levis of the Tennessee Titans, Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers and Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys have a smaller differential between overall adjusted completion percentage and completion percentage under pressure among those with an overall completion rate of at least 65%.
However, Tua is the only QB in the top seven with a completion percentage above 70.
On the flip side, Brissett (minus-18.2%), Gardner Minshew II of the Las Vegas Raiders (-15.1%), rookie Bo Nix of the Denver Broncos (-14.5%) and surprisingly Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens (-14.5%) have the largest differential between overall completion percentage and completion rate under pressure.
Tagovailoa has a good lead on Seattle’s Smith (64.9%) in terms of pressured completion rate, while Jared Goff of the Detroit Lions rounds out the top three at 63.9%.
It is worth noting that Tagovailoa (20.9%), Smith (19.8%) and Goff (20.8%) each throw an above average portion (17.8%) of their pressured attempts to checkdown receivers. This trio clearly benefits from knowing where to find its safety valves when protection breaks down.
It’s probably why only Baker Mayfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (22.0%) has thrown a lower percentage of his adjusted attempts under duress than Tua (22.1%). It’s just not worth it because Tagovailoa’s first reaction is to dump it off quickly once he feels pressured.
Richardson’s 37.9% completion rate while under pressure is by far the worst in the league, but he’s also completing less than half of his total attempts this season. Brissett has a 44.3% completion rate that sits second from the bottom, while Lock is third at 47.5%.
Pressure Point No. 2: Well-Thrown Rate (NFL Average: 74.5%)
- The Top: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (87.2%)
- The Bottom: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (57.3%)
Tagovailoa is atop this leaderboard as well, but Burrow of the Bengals is not too far behind him at 83.9%. Kirk Cousins’ 81.6% well-thrown rate (WT%) under pressure wasn’t good enough to keep him from getting benched by the Atlanta Falcons.
But if we look at quarterbacks with the smallest differential between overall well-thrown rate and WT% when pressured among those with an 80 WT% or better, we see an interesting list of performers under duress.
While Tagovailoa holds a small lead in well-thrown percentage under duress, Burrow and Cousins have displayed accuracy with a greater level of difficulty.
Tua has averaged 6.98 air yards per attempt (the league average is 9.90) while pressured, while Burrow is averaging 10.27 air yards per attempt and Cousins is at 9.58. This can help to illustrate the relative strengths and weaknesses of even the better quarterbacks in the league.
Tagovailoa is not known for improvisation skills or cannon arm, so Miami coach Mike McDaniel has built an offense around quick hitters to keep him on schedule. If a rusher comes free to disrupt the timing of the play design, there is often an underneath option to avoid negative plays.
Richardson and Brissett (57.4%) are again in the bottom, with Aidan O’Connell of the Las Vegas Raiders third-to-last at 62.7% and Trevor Lawrence of the Jacksonville Jaguars next at 67.5%.
Lawrence has regressed since 2022, when he had 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions in his sophomore season to earn a Pro Bowl selection. Over the last two seasons, he has 33 touchdowns and 21 interceptions in 26 games.
Lawrence and Richardson at least have youth and athleticism to lean on, while Brissett’s playing career appears to be in its twilight.
Pressure Point No. 3: Air Yards Per Attempt (NFL Average: 9.95)
- The Top: Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts (15.38)
- The Bottom: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (6.98)
It’s easy to see the contrast in styles here. As we’ve already mentioned, Tua’s immediate response to pressure is usually to hit the checkdown or safety-valve option. Richardson, however, opts to go for the big play.
It also gives further insight into why Richardson’s completion percentage and well-thrown rates are so low compared to Tagovailoa. After all, the shorter the throws, the easier it is to be accurate.
Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills is the only QB in the league to have a well-thrown rate above 76% while also averaging more than 11 air yards per attempt. The MVP candidate ranks second in aggressiveness under pressure, averaging 13.09 air yards per attempt in those situations.
Bryce Young of the Carolina Panthers is third with 11.98 air yards per pressured attempt, and his efficiency (69.2%) is somewhere between that of Allen and Richardson.
Pressure Point No. 4: Pickable Pass Rate (NFL Average: 5.53%)
- The Top: Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals (1.11%)
- The Bottom: Jameis Winston, Cleveland Browns (11.96%)
If Cincinnati’s defense hadn’t given up an AFC-most 387 points in the first 14 games, Burrow might be right in the thick of the MVP conversation. The former top pick leads the league in passing yards (4,641) and touchdown passes (42), and ranks third with a 109.8 passer rating and fifth in total EVE (387.7) among QBs.
And teams that have tried to coax Burrow into throwing an interception by pressuring him have failed miserably. Only two of Burrow’s 180 attempts under duress have been deemed “pickable,” for a ridiculous 1.11% pickable pass rate that’s far ahead of Mayfield’s next-best 2.56%.
Burrow has been so sharp with defenders closing in on him that he is statistically more likely to throw a pick from a clean pocket (1.72%).
Las Vegas Raiders QB Aiden O’Connell (-5.86%), Arizona Cardinals QB Kyler Murray (-5.25%), Watson (-4.61%), Joe Flacco (-4.53%), another Colts quarterback, and Brissett (-4.25%) have had sustained the largest drops (worse) in pickable pass percentage (PKP%) under duress.
Winston, O’Connell (11.86 PKP% under pressure) and Flacco (11.43%) have also been the most generous QB this season. Winston, who recently told reporters that he was praying to be liberated from his habit of throwing Pick-6s, has given defenses a chance at an interception on 11.96% of his pressured attempts.
Since he entered the league in 2015, only Stafford (17) and Derek Carr (16) have thrown more Pick-6s than Winston (14).
Pressure Point No. 5: Release Time (NFL Average: 3.24)
- The Top: Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens (3.82)
- The Bottom: Joe Flacco, Indianapolis Colts (2.81)
These results could potentially reveal an interesting trend that has been growing in NFL quarterback play. A quick release has traditionally been associated with quarterbacks who decisively read defenses and get the ball to playmakers.
It is the improvisers, however, who have enjoyed more success under pressure. General managers seem to have known this, with teams reluctant to invest in pure pocket passers over the last decade or so.
Jackson has an average release time of 3.82 seconds under pressure, using his unparalleled athleticism to escape trouble while keeping his eyes downfield. As we mentioned earlier, the reigning league MVP has much lower adjusted completion percentage on pressured attempts but his pickable pass rate (4.35%) is better than league average. He also leads the NFL in QB EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected).
Caleb Williams of the Chicago Bears (3.52), the previously mentioned Allen (3.56) and Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles (3.56) have had relative success while holding onto the ball longer than average, but Hurts’ 79.6% and Allen’s 78.0% well-thrown rates stand out.
Flacco has the quickest trigger against pressure, followed by Cousins (2.82), Minshew (2.92) and Cooper Rush of the Dallas Cowboys (2.93). Of these bottom four, only Minshew (4.90) has a PKP% better than the league average (5.53). Rush is at 6.98%, Cousins sits at 7.80% and Flacco has a whopping 11.43%.
For comparison, Jackson has a 4.49 PKP%, Williams is at 5.84% and Allen is at 3.14%. Hurts, however, has a 7.53 mark despite his high well-thrown percentage.
Above Average Across the Board
Overall, which quarterbacks have truly been the most well-rounded performers versus pressure this season?
While Tagovailoa certainly ranks at the top or high in many of these categories, it could be argued that his low air yards per attempt should remove him from the elite.
So let’s take a look at who has been at least above the league average in adjusted completion percentage (57.0%), well-thrown percentage (74.3%), air yards per attempt (9.9) and pickable pass percentage (5.53%) while under pressure.
There are only three who meet all of these qualifiers: Burrow, Herbert and Carr.
Check out our NBA, NFL, college basketball, FBS and FCS coverage. And follow along on Instagram, Bluesky, Threads, Facebook and X for more.
