Today I wanted to look and provide turnover and explosive play data (TOX), along with what I call Adjusted TOX (ATOX) through the 2024 regular season. The TOX stat takes turnovers and explosive plays for offenses and defenses, and creates a differential for each, which is very valuable historically to winning. Let’s start with this, and by the end of the article, I will define ATOX and present those results as well.
First, here are explosive plays for offenses and defenses in the 2024 regular season:
The Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 regular season was above average in totality on both sides of the ball. 57 explosive plays allowed on defense tied for ninth-best, while 66 explosives on offense ranked tenth. Though many things derailed in the five-game losing streak to end the season, the defense ranked similarly at eighth per my last TOX stats through Week 11, while the offense improved all the way from 18th.
While that seems encouraging, game circumstances paint a different picture than the numbers. Playing from behind in several of the last outings forced the offense into the catchup game, inflating their explosives, and often not getting the desired result of victory. On the flipside, the defense allowing much more rushing success, and being down on the scoreboard had a similar impact, with opposing offenses to play more conservatively.
There were encouraging moments like a whopping ten explosives on offense against the Bengals in Week 13, winning that shootout 44-38, when the defense allowed five explosives. But the second matchup in the season finale points to inconsistency with the offense getting just one explosive, letting the defense down that kept QB Joe Burrow and company from any explosive plays, and losing 19-17.
Next up, here are turnovers and takeaways:
Pittsburgh was above average in each once again, particularly with 33 takeaways on which tied for first in the NFL, while 17 turnovers on offense downtrended to tenth. Through Week 11, each tied for fourth-best in the league when the team had an 8-2 record.
The team went 2-and-5 the rest of the way, including nine turnovers in seven games, compared to eight in ten games to start the season. So, the offense not taking care of the football as well had a major impact in the Steelers’ demise to close the 2024 season.
Once again, a prior study has some more details if you’d like to check it out: 2024 regular season CATS.
Now let’s see how the turnover and explosive play differentials shake out:
- Explosive Diff = Explosive plays (offense) – Explosive plays allowed (defense).
- Turnover Diff = Takeaways (defense) – Turnovers (offense).
The Steelers came away with above-average marks, as expected from the season views earlier. Their turnover differential was the better mark at plus-16, ranking second league-wide, and a plus-nine explosive differential ranked tenth.
Landing in the top ten in every aspect so far is of course encouraging compared to previous seasons. But a lack of consistency from game to game, especially when it mattered most to close the 2024 season, has many overlooking the good moments when a playoff win (or more) seemed plausible. The painful end of the season, against mostly playoff teams, is an unfortunate asterisk to the late-year downward spiral.
The main goal for 2025 should be performing more steadily in these terms, especially considering virtually every team on the top right of the last visual made the postseason. Of course, there are several factors that go into winning, with the TOX stat being one of the most important to team success historically.
Now that we’ve broken down all the moving parts, here are the TOX differentials:
- TOX Differential = Turnover + Explosive play differentials.
12-of-14 playoff teams had a positive differential, re-emphasizing the importance of the stat. The exceptions were the Rams and Chiefs. Both are playing well, with the latter looking to make history as the first three-peat Super Bowl Champions and have defied many stats in 2024.
The Pittsburgh Steelers ranked sixth with a plus-25 TOX differential in the 2024 regular season, trailing five postseason teams who all finished with better records. Pittsburgh faced Philadelphia (#1 TOX differential), and of course Baltimore (fourth) out of that group this season, with a combined 1-and-3 record in those matchups.
ATOX adds additional context, so let me break the adjustments I make for explosive plays.
- Adjusted explosive plays = total explosive plays + double-explosive of 40 yards or more (multiplier of two) + triple-explosive of 60 yards or more (multiplier of three) + explosive touchdowns (multiplier of six).
The goal is to see who has gotten more (or less) value on their explosive plays, considering a 20-yard catch isn’t nearly as valuable as a 99-yard rushing touchdown, for example.
Here are adjusted explosive plays to date:
The defense was the stronger unit this season with a 107 adjusted explosive play number that ranked fifth, compared to tying for ninth in the initial view. Kept a lid on extreme explosives overall, encouragingly. Of the 57 explosive plays allowed, 12 were over 40 yards. No 60-plus yarders though, and just four explosive touchdowns allowed.
Was an issue in the two losses against Baltimore though, allowing multiple in the Week 16 loss, and a 44-yard run to RB Derrick Henry en route to ending Pittsburgh’s postseason early.
Offensively, Pittsburgh down trends from tenth (66 explosive plays) to 140 adjusted explosive plays, which landed 12th. Still above average, but points to a lack of extreme value in comparison that can hopefully be maximized in the future. Eight 40-plus explosives, with none of 60 or more, and eight explosive touchdowns. Went 6-1 in games they had an explosive TD this season.
While they had two in their most recent Wild Card performance, they were in desperation mode in the second half, after both sides of the ball dug a 21-0 hole that was insurmountable. Hard for any stat to overcome that.
Next, a similar view for adjusted turnovers and takeaways:
- Adjusted turnovers/takeaways = total turnovers (including fourth down fails and missed field goals) + interception or FR explosive return (multiplier of two) + double explosive (multiplier of three) + triple explosive (multiplier of four) + touchdown (multiplier of six).
Similar to adjusted explosive plays, but stronger multipliers considering they are less frequent.
Here are adjusted turnovers and takeaways:
Nine playoff teams land on the top right, and all 14 lands above average in one or the other, playing a factor in being in the tournament.
Pittsburgh’s defense was their better unit again, tying for tenth with 58 adjusted takeaways. But that’s stale in comparison to tying for first prior to the adjusted numbers, highlighting a lack of yards and TDs. Four explosive takeaways, three double explosives fared well, but no triple explosives and one explosive TD (LB Payton Wilson’s 21-yard fumble recovery). Nine teams had multiple explosive turnover TDs, including six playoff squads.
Compared to the Steelers’ raw 17 turnovers on offense (tenth), their 46 adjusted turnovers fell to a more average 15th, so both sides of the ball lacked this value in 2024. Two explosive turnovers, one double explosive, no triples, but two explosive TD turnovers. The latter were 51 and 37-yard pick-sixes on Russell Wilson, both in divisional games in Weeks 13 (Bengals) and 16 (Ravens). Largely took care of the ball in 2024, but not late season.
Now that we’ve viewed the results for offense and defense, let’s get to the adjusted turnover and explosive play differentials:
Stacking the numbers on both sides of the ball, Pittsburgh was above average in both adjusted explosives and turnover differentials. Their plus-33 adjusted explosive play differential ranked ninth, and their plus-12 adjusted turnover differential landed 13th. The defense deserves the most props, ranking best in both, particularly adjusted explosives. The offense fell in both adjusted numbers, particularly in adjusted turnovers.
While the team was encouragingly above average in several aspects of the study this season, the last statement is unfortunate considering the mantra and extreme importance in Pittsburgh’s identity of taking care of the football. That being the worst result of the study, and occurring later in the season as the team faltered, points to some reasons for the painful outcomes to the unfortunate close of the 2024 season.
To close, here are the adjusted TOX (ATOX) differentials in totality:
Pittsburgh’s plus-45 adjusted TOX differential ranked eighth-best in the 2024 season. On the whole that is encouraging, including a vast improvement from 2023 in explosive plays on both sides of the ball, and continuing some good things in terms of turnovers and takeaways.
In the majority of their ten wins this season, those factors were strong and contributed to those results. But when facing their gauntlet of a schedule late season, things dipped overall in their five-game losing streak to close the year, including yet another first round playoff exit.
That lack of consistency, particularly against playoff teams, was a big reason some fans went from the high of a contender to the depressing pretender view on the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers. The adjusted stats also pointed to strong baseline stats lacking in extreme value compared to the most successful teams in the NFL. Specifically, their eighth-ranked ATOX fell from sixth in the baseline TOX differential.
6-of-7 teams with a stronger ATOX made the postseason, with Detroit an example of a team that found extreme value in the adjusted stats, jumping all the way from a ninth-ranked TOX to third ATOX. Philadelphia and Buffalo topped both differentials, highly contributing to their success and still being in the dance, while Baltimore sent Pittsburgh home as a top-five team in each.
Being more consistent, stepping up against playoff-caliber opponents, and finding more extreme value in ATOX should be huge goals for the 2025 season.
Thanks for reading and let me know your thoughts in the comments.
