As the tennis world descends upon Melbourne for the first grand slam of the year, we turn to the Opta supercomputer to find out its 2025 Australian Open predictions.
The first grand slam of the year is almost upon us. The Australian Open begins in Melbourne on Sunday, with plenty for tennis fans to look forward to.
Current World No. 1s, Jannik Sinner and Aryna Sabalenka, are looking to defend their respective singles titles at the event, while a number of other storylines lurk.
How much closer can Iga Swiatek get to regaining the WTA No. 1 ranking as she attempts to break her Melbourne hoodoo? Can Carlos Alcaraz complete the Career Grand Slam, or will Alexander Zverev finally break his proverbial duck?
Let’s find out what the Opta supercomputer thinks…
Who Will Win the 2025 Australian Open? The Quick Hits
- Jannik Sinner is the clear favourite (23.45%) is to defend his Men’s Singles title
- Aryna Sabalenka (12.06%) is also the favourite to defend her Women’s Singles crown
- Jack Draper and Karolina Muchova set to belie their seedings
2025 Australian Open Men’s Predictions:
It won’t come as a surprise to anyone, but Jannik Sinner is the clear favourite to claim back-to-back Men’s singles titles at the Australian Open. As per the Opta supercomputer, the ATP No. 1 is given a 23.45% likelihood to defend his crown.
Becoming the youngest-ever player to defeat ATP top-five opponents in the quarter-final, semi-final and final of a grand slam set the tone for Sinner’s 2024, going on to prove he is currently the best tennis player in the world on a hard court, if not overall.
Complementing big groundstrokes and incredible agility for his size with a now-bulletproof serve, Sinner was close to untouchable on hard courts last year, becoming only the fourth player since the introduction of the ATP Masters 1000 format in 1990 to finish a season with a 90+% win rate – along with Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal.
The court speed at Melbourne Park is beneficial to a big serve, making Alexander Zverev the second favourite to take the Men’s singles title according to the Opta supercomputer, albeit at a relatively slim 6.94%.
The only player to really defeat Sinner on a hard court last year was Carlos Alcaraz – excluding Andrey Rublev’s win in Montreal, with Sinner backing up for his second match in a day after rain delays – but the Spaniard is considered third favourite for the tournament, at 5.23%.
At 21 years and 266 days on the day of the Men’s singles final, Alcaraz could become the youngest male player all time to achieve the Career Grand Slam – winning each of the four grand slams at least once – but he’ll have his work cut out on one of the ATP Tour’s faster hard courts.
Taylor Fritz is fourth-favourite at 5.14%, but perhaps the most eye-catching part of our pre-tournament predictions is 15th seed Jack Draper, who is sixth-favourite at 3.67%. This, despite being in Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic’s section of the draw.
Still, it’s Sinner and daylight according to our model for the Men’s singles, and anyone else’s path to the title likely goes through him.
2025 Australian Open Women’s Predictions:
In comparison to the Men’s singles, the Women’s singles draw is wide open, with the WTA Tour now in a long-awaited era of consistency for its top players. Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is considered the favourite to make it a third at Rod Laver Arena per the Opta supercomputer, but at a more competitive 12.06%.
Sabalenka could become the first player to win three consecutive Women’s singles titles at the Australian Open since Martina Hingis (1997-99), and currently holds the best winning percentage (82.0%, 50-11) of any active player at grand slam events on hard court. For those curious, Naomi Osaka (79.7%, 47-12) is next-best on the surface.
But what of the chasing pack?
Iga Swiatek is second-favourite to claim the Women’s singles title at 8.45% with the supercomputer. The former WTA No. 1 has found life difficult against power on faster surfaces, as evidenced by initial struggles against Sofia Kenin and Danielle Collins in Melbourne last year, before bowing out in the third round against Linda Noskova.
Despite disparate results, Swiatek could ultimately be buoyed by recent performances in the United Cup, getting into winning positions and managing to problem-solve against those who will likely be her fellow contenders for the title – Coco Gauff, Elena Rybakina and Karolina Muchova.
Little is separating Gauff (7.01%) and Rybakina (6.33%) as the third and fourth-favourites respectively. Meanwhile, despite being the 20th seed, Muchova is considered fifth-favourite at 5.23% – like the rest of the tennis world, the Opta supercomputer is also hoping for just one injury-free season for the Czech star.
How Our Tournament Simulator Works:
Our tournament projection model simulates the outcome of the tournament 10,000 times, estimating every player’s likelihood to get through each round of the draw based on their skill strength, where they are in the draw and the skill of the potential opponents they could face.
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