But what we’re talking about here is looking at teams that stay within a certain statistical framework on the metrics site. It’s something that we look at every year in our “Contenders and Pretenders” series that has accurately predicted the eventual national championship winner in each of the seven years we’ve done it (that had an NCAA Tournament).
Every* national champion in the KenPom era has fallen within the following parameters heading into the NCAA Tournament: A top 57 offense (2014 UConn was a huge outlier here; the rest have been top 21 offenses), a top 37 defense and a team ranked in the top 25 in adjusted efficiency margin.
*Baylor technically had the No. 44 defense in 2020-21 heading into the tournament, but that wasn’t an accurate representation of who the Bears were that season. Baylor had a top 10 defense before the Bears were forced to take 21 days (!!!) off due to a COVID-19 outbreak. When they returned, they struggled so badly that they fell to No. 44. But Baylor had a week between the Big 12 Tournament and the NCAA Tournament and shored up those holes, winning the tourney while playing top 10 defense again.
Obviously, there’s still time before the NCAA Tournament hits, so a team that isn’t hitting those thresholds yet isn’t doomed to fail. That includes this year’s Baylor team, which fields KenPom’s No. 76 defense. A few strong weeks defensively could pull Baylor back where it needs to be. But it’s worth noting that of the top 12 from AP’s Week 6 poll, Baylor is currently the only one failing to hit the necessary KenPom breakpoints.
