Arsenal’s hopes of reaching the League Cup final were dealt a severe blow by Newcastle on Tuesday. What chance do they have of overturning the deficit? Here’s what history tells us.
The prospect of another trophyless season at Arsenal looms larger after a frustrating 2-0 home defeat to Newcastle in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final on Tuesday night.
Mikel Arteta’s side attempted 23 shots, amassing an expected goals total of over three, but were made to pay for their painful inefficiency in front of goal. In fact, only once have Arsenal had more shots without scoring in a match under Arteta – against West Ham in December 2023 (30).
Newcastle, on the other hand, were clinical. The irony will not be lost on Arteta that it was Alexander Isak – a player the Spaniard has long coveted – who opened the scoring, finishing brilliantly with his left foot.
In doing so, the Swede notched his 50th goal for Newcastle in his 89th appearance, making him the third-fastest player to that milestone for the club in the Premier League era, behind Andy Cole (50 games) and Les Ferdinand (89).
Anthony Gordon then ensured Newcastle will go into next month’s second leg at St James’ Park with a two-goal advantage that might prove insurmountable.
That two-goal lead feels seismic, particularly with the second leg at St James’ Park, where Arsenal have lost their two previous visits without scoring. They’ve only managed two shots on target in their last 180 minutes of football there.
Something that also doesn’t bode well for Arsenal is history. There have been 32 occasions in which a team has lost their first leg of a semi-final in the League Cup by two or more goals.
Only once in history has a team overturned that deficit to progress to the final. That was Aston Villa in 1993-1994, who lost the first leg away from home 3-1 against Tranmere Rovers, before winning the second leg 3-1 and eventually progressing on penalties. Plus, Villa were playing against second-tier opposition, something which will not be the case for Arsenal.
Twenty teams have lost the first leg of a League Cup semi-final by exactly two goals, so historically speaking, there’s roughly a 5% chance of a side progressing.
Arsenal aren’t just any side, however. The Opta supercomputer is more bullish on their chances of qualifying for the final. They are still definite outsiders, yes, but the model gives them a 19% chance of making it through to the final.
That does mean Newcastle have a huge 81% probability of making it to their second League Cup final in three years. Eddie Howe’s men are in brilliant form, with this victory their seventh in a row in all competitions. They’ve conceded just twice in that run, keeping five clean sheets.
What will concern Arteta is how imperious they are at home: they’ve lost just twice at St James’ Park in their last 20 games.
Newcastle are now firmly in the hunt to win this competition; it would be their first major trophy since an FA Cup win in 1955.
The quest for a second trophy under Arteta continues…
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