Arsenal are on the verge of elimination from the EFL Cup after defeat to Newcastle, but there’s plenty still to play for this season, even if a trophy now looks much less likely.
There’s more than one way to view Arsenal’s recent form.
The headline fact is that Tuesday night’s 2-0 loss in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final against Newcastle was their first defeat in 14 games. Their previous loss – a 1-0 defeat at Inter in the Champions League – came more than two months ago, on 6 November. On the face of it, Arsenal have been on a very good run of form.
They are still in with a chance of winning four competitions this season, even if their League Cup chances are now hanging by a thread and Liverpool appear to be in the driving seat in the Premier League title race. They’re well-placed to qualify for the Champions League knockout stage and they are the most likely team to take advantage of any slip Liverpool make domestically. And they’ve been playing for the last few weeks without their best player, Bukayo Saka, who suffered a serious hamstring injury at Crystal Palace just before Christmas.
But the more pessimistic-minded fan might take an alternative view. There have been a few unconvincing performances over the two-month unbeaten run that was ended this week. Draws against Fulham, Everton and Brighton were disappointing results in which they struggled to convert chances, while they created little in open play against Manchester United and relied on set-pieces to win that game. They were also way off their best in the narrow home win over an organised but relegation-threatened Ipswich Town. There’s also the fact that Saka will be out for a prolonged period of time.
The loss to Newcastle has left them staring elimination from the competition in the face. Only once before has a team overturned a first-leg two-goal deficit in the League Cup semi-finals, and that was more than 20 years ago, when Aston Villa won 3-1 at home in the second leg against second-tier opposition in Tranmere Rovers. The task facing Arsenal, away to Newcastle, is a much bigger one than that.
Also, if you believe the Opta supercomputer’s assertion that Arsenal have a 10.8% chance of beating Liverpool to the Premier League title, or that they have a 14% likelihood of winning the Champions League, the FA Cup starts to look concerningly like their only chance of silverware this season. Arsenal kick off their FA Cup campaign with a home game against Man Utd this weekend. Winning that competition is certainly possible, but it’s still a long, long way off.
So, is there any reason to worry about Arsenal and their progress (or lack thereof) this season? Should a team as good as this be without a major trophy since the FA Cup triumph in Arteta’s first season in 2019-20?
It’s first of all worth saying that even if there is a doomsday-like feeling about Arsenal after their best chance of a trophy this season appeared to slip through their fingers at the Emirates this week, there’s still a great deal of football to be played before anyone starts writing 2024-25 off.
There’s even the possibility that they go to St James’ Park and win by two goals. Two of their last five trips there have ended in 2-0 victories, and the underlying numbers from their first-leg defeat suggest they might have scored three goals. It wasn’t the first time this season that they have created more than enough to win a game they ultimately fell short in.
Manager Mikel Arteta has been quick to point out when he felt his side should have got more from a game.
“I’m disappointed, as we fully deserved to win the game,” he said after the goalless draw with Everton, for example. “We did all the right things, we generated big chances, they didn’t create any… so it’s disappointing.”
Arsenal’s expected goal (xG) data proves they have tended to dominate games in terms of chances created.
They have been beaten on xG in only five of their 30 games in all competitions this season. And their two ‘biggest’ xG defeats – the only two where they have ‘lost’ by more than 0.7 xG – came in games when Arsenal had a man sent off in the first half: the 2-2 draw at Manchester City and the 2-0 defeat at Bournemouth.
They have also won the xG battle in 18 of their last 19 games in all competitions, the exception being last week’s draw at Brighton, when the hosts’ xG was boosted by them being awarded a debatable penalty.
Tuesday’s loss to Newcastle was one of those games where the numbers suggested Arsenal might have got more from it, and a lot more, at that. “If you look at what both teams produced and the dominance it’s not the result that reflects the story of the game,” Arteta said afterwards.
Arsenal produced 3.09 xG to Newcastle’s 1.22, but lost 2-0. “The reality is they were super-efficient with the chances they had and we weren’t,” Arteta said. “At this level, in these kinds of scenarios, you need to impose yourself.”
Indeed, Arsenal missed all six of their big chances, including Gabriel Martinelli hitting the post from a one-on-one, Kai Havertz miscuing a header from right in front of goal, and Jurriën Timber putting what looked a simple header over the bar from a corner. Newcastle scored with both of their two big chances.
While Arsenal did have some very good chances in open play – including those for Martinelli and Havertz – they also, not for the first time this season, created more than half of their chances through dead balls. Of their 3.09 xG, 54.0% came from set-pieces (1.67 xG).
Their reliance on set-pieces hasn’t really been much of a problem simply because they are so good at them. They very often score from at least one – on another day they would have scored two or three against Newcastle – and that can be all they need to break the back of a stubborn opponent before tearing them apart when they have to come out in search of an equaliser.
That is exactly what happened in the 5-2 win at West Ham in November, while they went 2-1 up at Crystal Palace last month with a set-piece goal before going on to win 5-1.
But on the days when *checks notes* Gabriel Magalhães, William Saliba and Timber don’t have their shooting boots on, it is infuriating for the fans to watch the forward players squander chances. Their top scorer in Premier League games this season is Havertz, on seven goals. Fourteen other Premier League players have scored more goals than him. For a fourth season out of five in England, Havertz has once again underperformed compared to his xG (7.8). He just isn’t a proper goalscorer.
Tuesday’s defeat was made all the more painful with the in-form Alexander Isak on the scoresheet for the visitors given Arsenal have long admired the Swedish centre-forward. Many feel a player like him could be the final piece in the puzzle for Arsenal, who have fallen just short in the last two title races.
Maybe he could be, but to assume so would take away from the fine work Arteta has already done. He has completely changed perceptions and ambitions at Arsenal in his five years there.
It isn’t time to panic just yet. The season certainly isn’t over. Even the League Cup semi-final isn’t.
Six points behind Liverpool (albeit having played one game more), Arsenal are definitely still in the title race.
Also, they have proven with recent results and performances against the likes of City and Liverpool that they can win individual games against the best teams around, and that means they will be competitive against any opponent in the Champions League. Their defence is genuinely exceptional, and that will provide the foundations for a challenge in Europe.
And in the FA Cup, they are favourites to beat United this weekend, and have as good a chance as anyone of going on to win the competition. The defeat to Newcastle has just put extra pressure on that game and that competition.
The weeks before the return leg against Newcastle could be huge for Arsenal’s season. By the time they travel north for that game, they’ll have played league matches against Tottenham, Aston Villa and City, likely still without their best creative threat Saka.
But they have shown in recent weeks and against Newcastle that creativity isn’t their problem. Their underlying numbers show they are still producing more than enough in the attacking third to win just about every game. It’s now about converting their opportunities.
A trophy is still very much within reach.
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