This weekend (Sat., Jan. 11, 2025), Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns home to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada for UFC Vegas 101.
I seem to recall reports of a long-term Apex closure that were met with celebration, but that no longer seems to be the case. Indeed, “mid-2025” turns out to be the fourth day of the year. At any rate, fight fans are likely starving for some UFC action, so I’m not sure the venue matters much in this case. The card overall is a bit thin on the side of name value (see it here), but I expect the ESPN+ main card at least to deliver some quality scraps.
Let’s dig into all the main card fights leading up to the main event:
Photo by Josh Hedges/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Welterweight: Santiago Ponzinibbio (-110) vs. Carlston Harris (-110)
Best Win for Ponzinibbio? Sean Strickland For Carlston Harris? Impa Kasanganay
Current Streak: Ponzinibbio has lost two straight, whereas Harris lost his last bout
X-Factor: How washed up is Ponzinibbio?
How these two match up: I’m really not sure what to expect here.
Ponzinibbio was at his peak when injury and illness struck him down, stranding the Argentinian boxer on the sidelines for over two years. On his return, “Gente Boa” is clearly a different man, slower and less powerful even if the will to win remains alive and well. Conversely, Harris didn’t even join the UFC roster until the age of 34. He hasn’t been overly active, but “Mocambique” has won four out of six bouts, largely on the strength of power punches and front chokes.
We’ve known Ponzinibbio lost a step for a while now. The question is whether or not he’s declined further? He looked pretty good against Miguel Baeza, but that win is over three years old now. In the time since, he’s won just one out of four fights, and that was a third-round come-from-behind KO!
The problem is that Harris is not a particularly outstanding fighter. He’s good, certainly, a tough finisher without the most consistent means of winning fights. It feels like he’ll have to stop Ponzinibbio to defeat him, and that’s only been accomplished by more powerful hitters than the Guyana native.
As much as it pains me, I think Harris is the fresher fighter at this stage of the game.
Prediction: Harris via knockout
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC
Middleweight: Cesar Almeida (-298) vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan (+240)
Best Win for Almeida? Ihor Potieira For Alhassan? Niko Price
Current Streak: Almeida won his last bout, while Alhassan enters off a “No Contest”
X-Factor: Alhassan is a serious KO threat
How these two match up: Fireworks.
Almeida is an accomplished professional kickboxer who has competed for Glory and fought the likes of Alex Pereira. Stand up is obviously the 36-year-old prospect’s strength, as he has the reactions and relaxations of a man who’s spent a lifetime striking. As for the rest of his game, well, it’s coming along reasonably well given this is just his eighth MMA fight!
Alhassan has been in the cage for far longer. “Judo Thunder” is a tremendously strong fighter regardless of weight class, capable of ragdolling opponents with big throws or overwhelming them with pure punching power. At 39 years of age, Alhassan is still plenty dangerous even if his gas tank is more and more of a liability.
A few years ago, I expect Alhassan would be able to use a bit of veteran grit and some well-timed takedowns to sway the odds in his favor. As it stands, I’m not sure I trust an older Middleweight (who should probably still be a Welterweight) to reliably wrestle for more than one round.
It sounds a lot more likely than Almeida uses his speed and combinations to control this one standing for his third UFC victory.
Prediction: Almeida via decision
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Middleweight Chris Curtis (+215) vs. Roman Kopylov (-265)
Best Win for Curtis? Brendan Allen For Kopylov? Cesar Almeida
Current Streak: Curtis lost his last bout, Kopylov returned to the win column
X-Factor: Curtis doesn’t always adjust to his opponent’s game plan well
How these two match up: This is almost guaranteed to be a kickboxing match in four-ounce gloves.
Curtis is a really unique striker. The Southpaw boxer works behind his shoulder and elbow quite well, allowing him a rare comfort in the pocket to slip and roll. Often, he’ll fire back with uppercuts and body shots, and his game really kicks off when his opponent is forced to stand their ground and trade. Kopylov, conversely, is a rangy kickboxer in the more classic leftie mold. He’s got a sneaky uppercut and fast combinations, but more often than not, Kopylov is slamming home left kicks and left hands on opponent’s stuck at distance.
This match up is made interesting by the Southpaw vs. Southpaw dynamic. It’s made less interesting by the fact that Curtis doesn’t really know how to cut off the cage after 43 professional bouts. If Kopylov opts to copy the Jack Hermansson low kick and circle approach, I’m not sure what “Action Man” can do about it … and Kopylov should be way better at that strategy than “The Joker” himself!
If Curtis cuts the cage well, this is anybody’s fight. History tells us that won’t happen though, so I’ll side with the younger Russian.
Prediction: Kopylov via decision
Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images
Featherweight: Christian Rodriguez (+195) vs. Austin Bashi (-238)
Best Win for Rodriguez? Raul Rosas Jr. For Bashi? Askar Askar
Current Streak: Rodriguez lost his last bout, while Bashi recently won his UFC debut
X-Factor: “CeeRod” is an excellent spoiler
How these two match up: Once again, we have a “Veteran vs. Prospect” match up, but the veteran is only 27 years old!
Indeed, Rodriguez fights with a composure and slickness beyond his years. His upset over Rosas Jr. is the perfect example: Rodriguez didn’t panic at all when Rosas Jr. was on his back, waited out the round, then proceeded to drop a beating on the young grappling ace. Speaking of young grappling aces … Bashi is a talented wrestler, undefeated (13-0) and just 23 years of age. His recent UFC debut showed a quickly developing obvious physical talent, but did it show a fighter too green to defeat Rodriguez?
I am not sold on Rodriguez at Featherweight. Generally, I feel like he’s the size of a Bantamweight, just one who isn’t particularly good at cutting weight for whatever reason. Size is a huge factor in this sport, and it felt like part of the reason why Rodriguez fell to a Julian Erosa guillotine after tuning him up on the feet.
Fortunately, it doesn’t seem like Bashi is a particularly large Featherweight either at 5’6.” The two are similarly sized, even if Bashi is a bit more thickly muscled. It doesn’t seem like the kind of difference that will allow Bashi to easily ground “CeeRod,” a historically difficult task. At this stage of their respective careers, Rodriguez should be able to outlast the initial wrestling barrage and start landing the heavier blows sooner than later.
Prediction: Rodriguez via decision
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Welterweight: Punahele Soriano (+164) vs. Uros Medic (-198)
Best Win for Soriano? Miguel Baeza For Medic? Tim Means
Current Streak: Both won their last bout
X-Factor: Just how good is Soriano’s Welterweight wrestling?
How these two match up: Heavy-hitting Contenders Series products will throw down.
Soriano was a fairly one-note fighter at Middleweight, an athletic leftie with solid natural power. In his Welterweight debut, however, he really showed off a dominant wrestling game against Baeza. If he can consistently combine those two weapons … baby, you’ve got a stew going!
Medic’s kickboxing is the most standout skill between the pair. The Serbian “Doctor” hits quite hard and has a knack for timing huge connections and creating knockout blows. He puts together his punches and kicks very well and has thus far only struggled against opponents who ground him.
Thus the question: how good is Soriano’s wrestling at 170 pounds? How much of Soriano’s ground dominance over Baeza was the result of the Floridian’s losing streak and generally declining confidence? This fight will tell us a lot about whether that was a one-off win or telling of Soriano’s promising future as an 170-pound wrestle-boxer.
For now, I’m still unconvinced. If Medic can mostly keep it standing, he should take this in dramatic fashion.
Prediction: Medic via knockout
LIVE! Stream UFC Vegas 101 On ESPN+
STRAWWEIGHT SHOWDOWN! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads back to its APEX venue in Las Vegas, Nevada, on Sat., Jan. 11, 2025, with an important 115-pound main event featuring jiu-jitsu phenom Mackenzie Dern, who looks to avenge her 2019 loss to Brazilian bruiser Amanda Ribas. In addition, longtime welterweight slugger Santiago Ponzinibbio returns to face off against “Mocambique” mauler Carlston Harris in UFC Vegas 101’s hard-hitting co-headliner.
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Vegas 101 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 4 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 7 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Vegas 101: “Dern vs. Ribas 2” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
