Can Ruben Amorim turn things around in the Premier League? We look ahead to Thursday’s clash with our Manchester United vs Southampton prediction and preview.
Man Utd vs Southampton Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester United are favourites against Southampton, winning 69.0% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Southampton are winless in their last 17 Premier League away games (D4 L13), the club’s second-worst run in top-flight history.
- United are unbeaten in their last 15 games in the competition against Southampton.
Ruben Amorim will hope the tides are turning after impressive performances against Liverpool and Arsenal.
Manchester United’s next test is to put away struggling Southampton on Thursday night at Old Trafford.
United edged past Arsenal in the FA Cup third round on penalties after a 1-1 draw across 120 minutes. Backup goalkeeper Altay Bayindir proved the hero, denying Martin Ødegaard’s spot-kick in regular time before pushing away Kai Havertz’s penalty in the shootout as 10-man United booked their place in the fourth round despite Diogo Dalot being sent off in the second-half of normal time.
Bruno Fernandes opened the scoring at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, adding to his assist for Lisandro Martínez’s opener in a hard-fought 2-2 draw with Liverpool last time out in the Premier League.
Amad Diallo equalised late on in that clash at Anfield after goals for Cody Gakpo and Mohamed Salah had put the league leaders ahead. Diallo has now been involved in nine goals in his last 12 Premier League starts, scoring three and assisting six, and could become the first African player to reach double figures for goal involvements in a single campaign for United.
However, Amorim desperately needs to see improvements at the back, particularly from set-pieces. Although they defended crosses resolutely against Arsenal, United have conceded nine of their 28 league goals this season from corners, and as many from headers – that accounts for a league-high percentage (32%) in both counts.
Only struggling Wolves have conceded more goals overall from both methods (10 from corners, 10 headers) in the 2024-25 Premier League, though Amorim may at least take some confidence from United’s last two defensive showings.
Returning to Old Trafford, however, could be another issue. United have lost each of their last three Premier League games at home, last losing more consecutively in February 1934 as a second-tier side (5), while they last did so in the top flight in October 1930 (6).
United will fancy ending that losing streak here given Southampton are winless in their last 17 Premier League away games (D4 L13). They have only suffered a longer run between March 1985 and February 1986 without a top-flight win on the road (19).
Ivan Juric’s side were hammered 5-0 at home by Brentford in their last league outing – they already sit 10 points adrift of safety at the bottom of the table. However, Southampton clinched a morale-boosting 3-0 victory over Swansea City in the FA Cup third round on Sunday.
Kamaldeen Sulemana fired Juric’s side ahead against their Championship opponents before a brace for Tyler Dibling sealed Southampton’s first win in any competition since their 1-0 victory over Everton in early November.
As for team news, Amorim will remain without Jonny Evans, Luke Shaw, Victor Lindelöf and Mason Mount, while Marcus Rashford – who has been linked with a move away from Old Trafford – will be assessed on his return from illness. Dalot is suspended after being sent off against Arsenal.
Ross Stewart and Jack Stephens are the only confirmed absentees for Southampton, who will hope to welcome back Joe Aribo, Mateus Fernandes, Flynn Downes and Will Smallbone.
Man Utd vs Southampton Head-to-Head
It could be another disappointing outing for Southampton considering they have failed to win any of their last 15 Premier League games against Man Utd (D8 L7) since a 1-0 triumph at Old Trafford in January 2016.
However, Southampton have lost in just three of their last 10 trips to the red half of Manchester in the competition (W2 D5). They had suffered defeat in 13 of 14 Premier League Old Trafford visits before that.
United were 3-0 winners in the reverse fixture this campaign, with Matthijs de Ligt, Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho on target in a game that saw Stephens sent off.
Man Utd vs Southampton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to see anything other than a home win on Thursday, with United triumphing in 69.0% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Southampton managed a rare away victory in just 13.8% of the same data-led sims, while the draw was ranked at 17.2%.
Juric’s side seem destined to drop down to the Championship, suffering relegation in 98.8% of Opta’s end-of-season simulations. United, meanwhile, finished the campaign in 13th most often (16.8%).
Man Utd vs Southampton Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Thursday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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