Unfortunately, the 2024-25 Pittsburgh Steelers story came to another abrupt playoff halt, still with no playoff wins since 2016. They were throttled in the Wild Card Round by their rival Baltimore Ravens 28-14.
Couple of notes before we jump in. Thanks to Thomas Mock for his great work that helped me learn much of what I’m using in the series visually. Spikes and clear throwaways are removed due to being the correct situational decision, along with bats at the line of scrimmage. Four throwaways and a bat were removed.
QB Russell Wilson went 20-of-29 passing, with a 69.0-percent completion rate. Pretty strong numbers, but we know stats don’t always tell the full story. The throwaways included antsy play form Wilson, bailing on clean pockets at times, and not getting through his progressions cleanly. Yes, the offensive line needed to play better too, but four sacks on Wilson weren’t all their fault.
Receivers also deserve their share of the blame with two drops, the first play of the game that had me saying here we go again, a reoccurring issue from the season finale. Speaking of reoccurring, the offense had yet another slow start, with several horrendous facts. In the first half: only two first downs, 1-of-5 on third down, 59 total yards, just 19 rushing, didn’t get to the red zone, and no points scored.
First half Ravens offense: 19 first downs, 7-of-8 third downs, whopping 308 total yards (164 rush, 144 pass), and 3-for-3 in the red zone. While the Steelers offense did nothing, it was also the defense that deserves severe blame for the 21-0 deficit at halftime. Not playoff caliber, too much to overcome against the clearly better team last Saturday night.
Back to Wilson, this also puts context to some strong stat lines, that came when the game was virtually over by halftime. In total, he threw for 270 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, four big-time throws (season-high), no turnover-worthy plays, and his best 91.7-percent adjusted completion rate of 2024.
Too little too late, and maddening why Pittsburgh is such a horrid team to start games: no first drive TDs in 2024, outscored 73-0 in first quarter of their last six playoff games. Recipe for the most recent disaster and several years of playoff pain.
Especially gruesome this game with no points the entire first half, and a defense that allows more than expected in a whole game before heading into the locker room, and was down trending overall in the five-game losing streak to end the year. Something’s gotta give.
Let’s start with a simple view of the 24 charted passes, with number of throws at each pass distance for the game:
#1. 0-5 air-yards: 50.0-percent. 12 passes. The first play of the game was a stop route to TE Pat Freiermuth, unfortunately dropping the pass as he did on the final play of the season finale, part of the rough start on a should-be routine play. The following play was another stop route to TE Darnell Washington at 4-air yards, adding churning YAC for a 9-yard gain.
After a 3rd and 1 four-yard run by RB Jaylen Warren avoided a first drive three-and-out, Wilson had happy feet and seemingly effected his accuracy on a crosser to WR Mike Williams, falling incomplete. The opening dive then stalled on a 3rd and 6 three-yard scramble, where Wilson held it facing quality coverage, forcing a punt.
Drive two was a three-and-out result, ending with a 3rd and 7 out route to Freiermuth at 5-air yards, giving valiant YAC effort but corralled by multiple Ravens for the same yardage. This led to no first quarter points.
Next drive was similar pain, a 3rd and 1 that was also targeted short of the sticks, and frustratingly solo tackled for a second straight three-and-out fail. This was after two successful runs, and tired of Pittsburgh either heaving or throwing short of the chains on the money down.
Even more frustrating was punting on the following 4th and inches, knowing the potency of Baltimore’s offense. No faith from HC Mike Tomlin, leaning on a regressing defense to end the year, and the Ravens scored the next drive to lead 14-0.
With four minutes in the second quarter, WR George Pickens got his first catch on a stop route, taking the five-air yard pass for an eight-yard gain to start the drive. The next 2nd and 2, Wilson dumps it to Warren at the line of scrimmage, wiggling for some YAC for 5-yards, the only passing first down of the first half. Next play was the Fields throwaway on his lone pass attempt under duress. Two total snaps, not the involvement many wanted.
Then, 3rd and 8 was a negated go ball catch by Pickens, but clearly pushed off on an offensive pass interference that would have had Pittsburgh in the red zone. Instead, a thoroughly behind the chains 3rd and 18, cutting their losses with a flat route to Freiermuth for nine yards against off coverage. Fifth straight failed drive, and Baltimore getting time to punch it in once again for a 21-0 first half beatdown.
Backed up near their own end zone, Wilson is antsy and the stop route to Washington is low and nearly on the ground to your tall TE, come on. Quite a while until the next attempt, with the hole Pittsburgh dug themselves.
After two penalties, it’s 1st and 15. RB Najee Harris gets the checkdown, wide open over the middle at 2-air yards, and adding good YAC including churn for 11 yards. Good effort that wasn’t displayed across this Steelers team. This was followed up by a throwaway, where Wilson had time, and looking left where Austin was open, a clear miss in my opinion.
This created a 3rd and 4, a nice scheme and pitch/catch on a slant to Pickens, taking the 5-air yarder plus YAC for the 11-yard conversion. Where are these types of plays early in the game though?
On the final drive, the final example followed a Wilson five-yard scramble, bailing for no apparent reason quickly. This 2nd and 5 throw was a quick out to Pickens with 8:36 left in the game, corralled for 6-yards, and thankfully the whistle blew on forward progress with the ball stripped late.
#2. 5-10 air-yards: 29.2-percent. Seven examples, just one yet to be mentioned, pointing to the stale nature of the pass game particularly early. More pain after a throwaway (T Broderick Jones beat bad inside), a Harris false start, and 2nd and 15 sack (Jones beat bad around the edge).
This detrimental stretch led to a 3rd and 22 with 6:47 left in the game with a 28-14 deficit. Another huge hole dug, and in four down territory gained just seven yards to WR Van Jefferson tackled quickly.
#3. Explosive (20-plus air-yards): 25.0-percent. Six here. Several attempts, but none in the terrible first half.
The first was 3rd and 9, Wilson having good pocket presence backed up on his own end zone, stepping up for a nice throw and catch over the middle by WR Calvin Austin despite a big hit for 25 yards. Really the first great offensive feeling at 10:49 in the third quarter.
Same drive, it’s 3rd and 5. Wilson launches a pretty go ball on a nice concept, a slot fade with a rub to free Williams, catching it at 24 air yards and adding YAC for a 37-yard gain, nice conversion. But in typical fashion, a great play has been book-ended with horrendous plays, here being two straight throwaways (predictable play-action flat well covered, unnecessarily antsy).
This led to 3rd and 10. Thankfully, it was a good read and throw to Jefferson, who stacked the corner in single coverage, after moving the safety to the middle with his eyes. This much 32 air-yarder was a much-needed end zone strike, cutting the deficit to 21-7 mid-third quarter. Props on this three 3rd down conversion drive, emphasizing the offensive potential that lacks consistency.
Embarrassingly, Baltimore went on to score another TD, extending their lead to 28-7. Pittsburgh responded with another explosive touchdown, an out and up hole shot that Wilson threaded at 25 air yards to Pickens, who plucked it and spun away from the safety for the waltz-in YAC score. Glimmer of hope late third quarter, with a 28-14 scoreboard, but sadly was just a tease with that being the final score.
Two more attempts on the final drive. This go ball was thankfully not another offensive pass interference on Pickens, with less egregious hand use at the catch point, going up high for the grab and impressive toe-tap for the 26-yard gain mid-fourth quarter.
6:14 left, last ditch effort on 4th and 15. Wilson seemingly locked onto his decision pre-snap to target Austin, streaking deep over the middle but was triple covered on the Hail Mary desperation, nearly intercepted. Continued example of excruciating results, and undesirable situations due to self-inflicted wounds.
#4. Behind-the-Line: 20.8-percent. Five plays. First one followed a failed flea flicker sack (free blitzer, nearly stripped, tries to step up). Led to 2nd and 14 late first quarter, a wide-open dump off to Warren with YAC for a seven-yard gain, but the drive was a three-and-out fail.
Next one followed the first explosive play to Austin. Another open dump off to Warren, who had space, but lack of blocking limited his YAC on the five-yard gain. Followed up by a sack, rolling left with options, but decides to scramble getting zero yards.
Then, two on the following drive later in the third quarter, both to Harris and on first downs. The first was an open dump off with a nice block from Freiermuth, gaining nine yards on the first play after going down 28-7 on the scoreboard. The other was a screen, with great blocks, vision, and cuts for an explosive 21-yard gain. This was one of the rare short targets that reaped great YAC benefits in the entire game.
Final one came late third quarter, where Jones allowed a QB hit (debatably late), where Wilson took the checkdown to Warren, who did well just to churn and avoid negative yards on the two-yard gain. The following play was another third down fail, with a poor Warren block forced Wilson into scramble mode and brought down. Peaks, but ginormous valleys.
T-last. 10-15 air-yards: 0.0-percent. NONE.
T-last. 15-20 air-yards: 0.0-percent. NONE. It’s well documented that Wilson is a high percentage short target, or moon ball passer. But to have zero throws to the intermediate range (10-20 yards) is baffling and simply not acceptable.
Here are the dots of completions/incompletions for the game:
Last point painfully visualized, with no charted passes even close to the intermediate range. Illustrates Wilson’s predictable MO, primarily short passing and throw it deep. Thankfully, he connected on a majority of the latter, or this game would have felt even worse than it already did.
Completion Rates By Distance:
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 5/5 (100-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 9/12 (75.0-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 5/7 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 0/0 (N/A).
15-20 air-yards: 0/0 (N/A).
Explosive: 5/6 (83.3-percent).
Strong rates overall, particularly impressive on explosives, including both touchdowns. But the stats only tell part of the story, as I laid out thoroughly earlier.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 7/9 (77.8-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 3/3 (100-percent).
Inside hashes: 2/3 (66.7-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 3/4 (75.0-percent).
Outside right numbers: 5/5 (100-percent).
Nice percentages again, perfect outside the right numbers and left numbers to left hash, but all five air yards or less. Nice deep connection to Austin between the hashes, but the lone explosive incompletion was the near pick Hail Mary.
Now for the heat-maps for charted-passes, then completions only:
We see similar charts on all charted attempts and completions only, with the exception being the last-ditch desperation heave incomplete into triple coverage. Seemingly healthy pass distances if you didn’t watch the game. But ignoring the intermediate area of the field, and not having an explosive attempt until the second half, when you’re already down insurmountably were abysmal facts in getting throttled.
Here are all 471 charted throws for Wilson and Fields in the 2024 regular and post season:
#1. 0-5 air yards: 40.8-percent. Previously 40.3-percent. 2023 35.0-percent.
#2. 5-10 air yards: 25.1-percent. Previously 24.8-percent. 2023 23.8-percent.
#3. Behind-the-line: 16.3-percent. Previously 16.1-percent. 2023 18.5-percent.
#4. Explosive: 14.9-percent. Previously 14.3-percent. 2023 12.4-percent.
#5. 10-15 air yards: 9.6-percent. Previously 10.1-percent. 2023 13.0-percent.
#6. 15-20 air yards: 6.8-percent. Previously 7.2-percent. 2023 10.8-percent.
The full 2024 spectrum sheds light on needed changes moving forward. 0-5 air yards is most common for all passing attacks, but it dominating the pass distance share by this much should be looked at, over five-percent higher than 2023.
The best news was an uptick in explosives, with greater success than we’ve seen in Pittsburgh for quite some time. Wilson brought that no doubt, but with it comes an avoidance of intermediate passing, which defenses know and makes their job much easier. Whoever is QB in 2025, this needs to change.
WILSON:
Behind-the-line: 49/57 (86.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 101/127 (79.5-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 53/76 (69.7-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 18/29 (62.1-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 12/33 (52.2-percent).
Explosive: 27/48 (56.3-percent).
FIELDS:
Behind-the-line: 15/20 (75.0-percent).
0-5 air-yards: 57/65 (87.7-percent).
5-10 air-yards: 30/42 (71.4-percent).
10-15 air-yards: 8/16 (50.0-percent).
15-20 air-yards: 5/9 (55.6-percent).
Explosive: 6/21 (28.6-percent).
These numbers emphasize the differences in the two quarterbacks’ seasons. Wilson had higher rates behind the line, and past ten air yards which neither QB targeted often. Was substantially more successful on explosive passes (nearly doubling Fields). There was a conservative lid on Fields in the first six games of 2024, and would be interesting to see what that could look like if given a legitimate QB1 opportunity.
Completion Rates By Location:
WILSON:
Outside left numbers: 57/90 (63.3-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 57/67 (85.1-percent).
Inside hashes: 18/25 (72.0-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 53/62 (85.5-percent).
Outside right numbers: 50/74 (67.6-percent).
FIELDS:
Outside left numbers: 35/53 (66.0-percent).
Left numbers-left hash: 14/20 (70.0-percent).
Inside hashes: 11/13 (84.6-percent).
Right hash-right numbers: 30/38 (78.9-percent).
Outside right numbers: 22/34 (64.7-percent).
Wilson had more areas of higher rates, with the exceptions being outside the left numbers and inside the hashes. The extreme middle of the field was the least targeted across the board, lower on my radar than many folks, rather more in between the numbers past ten air yards one of my biggest hopes for change in 2025.
I’ve been saying that for a while though, so this is one of the many hopeful changes I’ll believe when I see unfortunately, no matter who Pittsburgh’s quarterback is in 2025.
To close, here are the dots along with heat maps for all charted attempts and completions only:
Agonizing end of the year storyline for the 2024 Pittsburgh Steelers, who showed promise during it. When facing tougher opponents toward the end of the year, they crumbled. Similar discussions to past seasons, with too much lack of creativity and scheme despite a new OC in Arthur Smith. This organization really needs to look in the mirror and make serious change if they expect a different result, particularly in the postseason.
Less insanity, more action, I’m begging you.
