Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight finishers Jiri Prochazka vs. Jamahal Hill will battle this weekend (Sat., Jan. 18, 2025) at UFC 311 from Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California.
There are a few ways to look at this main card match up. A pessimist could view it as the battle of Alex Pereira’s leftovers. An optimist could argue that this is a championship bout in a non-”Poatan” world. I’ll split the difference and argue it’s an absolute banger between hard-hitting former champions who could very possibly regain gold when Pereira retires or loses his strap.
Prochazka hasn’t lost to anyone other than Pereira in about a decade. Hill is one of the quickest to rise from Contenders Series to UFC gold and clearly has great natural fighting instincts. The forecast calls for violence, so best strap in!
Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
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Prochazka vs. Hill Betting Odds
- Jiri Prochazka victory: -105
- Jiri Prochazka via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Jiri Prochazka via submission: TBD
- Jiri Prochazka via decision: TBD
- Jamahal Hill victory: -115
- Jamahal Hill via TKO/KO/DQ: TBD
- Jamahal Hill via submission: TBD
- Jamahal Hill via decision: TBD
- Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
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How Prochazka Wins
Prochazka is a madman with a system. His game is to cause chaos and fatigue, and few are better at landing haymakers under such circumstances. There are a ton of neat tricks to his approach, which is why he’s been able to build such an incredible record in his many years of combat.
In this bout, Prochazka doesn’t want to get stranded at the kicking range. That’s been a problem for him recently against Pereira and Aleksandar Rakic: his opponents try to blast his legs, keep him away, and leave him walking into counter shots. Admittedly, those are two of the best low kickers in the division, and that’s not Hill’s game generally, but I would still expect the Southpaw to be firing his left leg and looking for counters.
Pressure is the solution — intelligent pressure, ideally. Prochazka is at his best when feinting loosely on the outside and shifting stances behind snap kicks, using his movement to hide the blitz. When Prochazka does engage, he has to be wary of the check hook counter that Hill is known for. If he can weave beneath it and come up firing, however, he’ll likely be in position to do serious damage.
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How Hill Wins
Hill doesn’t do anything too fancy. As a 6’4” Southpaw with natural power and conditioning, he doesn’t really have to! “Sweet Dreams” is dangerous at every range and decidedly difficult to hold down, making him a difficult match up for most.
I alluded to the likely Hill game plan above of keeping Prochazka back with kicks then countering him on the way in. A key difference between Hill and Pereira/Rakic is that Hill is a leftie, meaning the calf kick won’t be nearly as available. He’ll have to take his left leg to the inner thigh, body, or head, which is generally a bit more difficult and could leave him open to counters if thrown naked.
For Hill, the big adjustment to make is an emphasis on front kicks. Prochazka’s stance-shifting style often leaves him square, meaning his stomach/solar plexus/chest makes a large target. Hill kicks hard, and snap kicks up the middle do not feel good even for one as tough as “BJP.” A few hard kicks up the middle will convince Prochazka to push forward. With a bit of patience, Hill can then look to line up his counter punches, though making sure to exit after firing should be a priority as well.
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Prochazka vs. Hill Prediction
There are plenty of similarities between these two. Both thrive in their division on the virtues of size and athleticism. While Hill capitalizes on Southpaw fundamentals — a proven recipe for MMA success if there ever was one! — Prochazka has his own unique approach that has its faults but has worked far, far more often than not.
The ultimate question is whether or not you believe Hill can keep Prochazka off him for a long time or stop him early with a counter. I don’t feel confident in either situation. Pereira is the heaviest hitter in the sport, and it still took him multiple kill shots to finish “The Czech Samurai.” His incredible durability and will to win should allow him to (eventually) get his own licks in, and Prochazka is a spectacular finisher once momentum shifts into his corner.
Part of my reasoning is also that we’ve never really seen Hill in a brawl with a prime slugger. Beating up Glover Teixeira was a good win, but that bout came after Prochazka dragged him into deep waters in one of the best fights ever. Outside of that bout, Hill has only slugged it out with … Johnny Walker? Post-knee injury Thiago Santos? Nobody on his resume is nearly as dangerous, young, and durable as Prochazka, and I don’t believe Hill has enough of a technique edge to make up the difference.
It’ll be difficult and bloody, but “BJP” gets the job done in the usual fashion.
Prediction: Prochazka via knockout
LIVE! Watch UFC 311 PPV On ESPN+ Here!
LIGHTWEIGHT REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) kicks off its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., Jan. 18, with its seemingly-unstoppable lightweight champion, Islam Makhachev, defending his 155-pound crown against top-seeded division contender, Arman Tsarukyan, in the five-round main event. In UFC 311’s championship co-headliner from inside Intuit Dome in Inglewood (Los Angeles), Calif., undefeated 135-pound contender, Umar Nurmagomedov, challenges newly-minted bantamweight titleholder, Merab Dvalishvili, for the undisputed crown. UFC 311 will also feature the exciting returns of former light heavyweight champions Jiri Prochazka and Jamahal Hill, as well as the pivotal middleweight showdown between Kevin Holland and Reinier De Ridder, and so much more! UFC 311’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (Preliminary card) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 311 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN+/ESPNEWS “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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