After the latest round of Premier League matches, we use the Opta supercomputer to assess the likelihood of the teams near the bottom of the table being relegated.
21 January
Only one of the first 31 seasons of Premier League football saw every team promoted from the second tier a season earlier end up being relegated back in their first campaign in the top flight. Back in 1997-98, Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Crystal Palace all fell back into the second division after only one season in the Premier League.
Last season, the 32nd Premier League campaign, saw it happen for just the second time, as Luton Town, Sheffield United and Burnley all fell back into the Championship one season after winning promotion to the top tier of English football. As things stand, it looks like occurring for a third time and in successive Premier League seasons for the first time ever.
The bottom three currently consists of Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town, with Wolverhampton Wanderers loitering above the drop zone on goal difference. Despite there being 16 matchdays remaining, the Opta supercomputer doesn’t see much of an outcome other than the bottom three falling through the trapdoor at the end of the season.
Southampton are on course to be the worst Premier League team of all time. With just six points from 22 matches, it’s the lowest at this stage of a single season behind Derby’s seven points from 22 games in 2007-08. Derby ended on 11 points, so Southampton still have to pick up five more in their remaining 16 games to even equal that.
Across top-flight history, Southampton’s points tally is the lowest after 22 games (based on three points for a win) since Sheffield United in 1975-76 (6 – W1 D3 L18), while only one team has ever won fewer after 22 games of a top-flight campaign in England – Bolton in 1902-03 (3 – W0 D3 L19).
This leaves Southampton 10 points from safety already, and the supercomputer sees them relegated 99.8% of the time across its current 10,000 simulations.
Leicester City aren’t far behind them in the supercomputer’s current relegation projections, with the Foxes falling into the Championship in 91.0% of the 10,000 simulations today.
After beating West Ham on 3 December to get the Ruud van Nistelrooy era off to a great start, they’ve lost seven consecutive league games for only the fourth time in their history after previously doing so in April 2001, September 1990 and January 1932.
That April 2001 run eventually stretched to eight defeats in a row, which is their club record. Their next league game comes away at Tottenham on Sunday, where they could equal that record, although Spurs are arguably one team that Leicester wouldn’t mind facing at the moment (more on them later).
Ipswich complete the trio of promoted sides in trouble, albeit only separated by Wolves in 17th on goal difference. That could have been different, had the Tractor Boys not capitulated in a 6-0 home loss to Man City on Sunday, which saw them suffer their heaviest home defeat since a 6-0 loss to Liverpool in the Premier League back in February 2002.
Kieran McKenna’s side are relegated in 71.3% of current Opta supercomputer simulations, with a daunting away trip to league leaders Liverpool up next. They have only won seven points from 12 home games this season, but their next match at Portman Road comes against Southampton on 1 February – an ideal chance to improve their chances of crawling out of the relegation zone.
Wolves lost 3-1 at Chelsea on Monday night, but it was a result that was hardly unexpected, even given the Blues’ recent poor form. That defeat has Wolves teetering above the relegation zone and four points behind Everton in 16th, giving some justification to their relegation chances being 30.8% today and the Toffees only 6.4%.
Everton’s excellent home win over Tottenham on Sunday takes them within four points of Spurs with a game in hand, albeit against rivals Liverpool. More importantly it stopped a run of six Premier League games without a win (D3 L3) and gave their new/old manager David Moyes a platform to build upon in upcoming weeks.
The supercomputer sees the relegation battle unlikely to involve any side outside the current bottom five teams, but if Tottenham and Manchester United keep up their terrible form, things could rapidly go downhill – especially if the bottom three start picking up points.
As things stand, Tottenham were relegated in just eight of the 10,000 simulations, while Manchester United’s “worst team ever” fall into the Championship in six of those simulations.
31 December
They had to wait a long time for it, but Ipswich Town finally earned their first home win of the 2024-25 campaign this week. It came in somewhat surprising circumstances, too, with the Tractor Boys winning 2-0 against Chelsea.
Those three points lifted Ipswich up into 18th place and just two points from safety. Everton in 16th do have a game in hand, though, and Kieran McKenna’s men are still in a precarious position. Their chances of relegation dropped thanks to their win against Chelsea, but they remain a heavy 71.5% shot to go down. The fact is 72 teams in Premier League history have had 15 points or fewer after 19 games. Fifty of them (69.4%) ended up being relegated. So, history is still against Ipswich.
Leicester City are now second-favourites for relegation (74.8%) for the first time since early October. Defeats to Liverpool and Man City mean it’s now four losses on the spin for Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side. It’s the club’s worst run in the competition since April 2023 (also four losses in a row).
Wolves continued their unbeaten start to life under Vítor Pereira. Boxing Day brought them a famous 2-0 home victory over Manchester United, before a late Jørgen Strand Larsen goal won them a point away at Tottenham. In fact, Pereira is just the fourth manager to go unbeaten in his first three top-flight league games in charge of Wolves (W2 D1) after Andy Beattie in 1964, Ronnie Allen in 1967 and Sammy Chung in 1977. They now have just a 40.3% of relegation.
Everton had strung together three resilient performances to pick up valuable draws against Arsenal, Chelsea and Man City, but their unbeaten run came to an end on Sunday at home to high-flying Nottingham Forest. The Toffees are outside the relegation zone and do have a game in hand, but they need to start converting draws into wins to make their current relegation percentage (11.5%) diminish further.
Southampton’s miserable first half of their campaign culminated with another defeat away to Crystal Palace. After taking the lead through Tyler Dibling, goals from Trevoh Chalobah and Eberechi Eze consigned Saints to their 15th loss of the season. They have just six points after 19 Premier League games this season (W1 D3 L15) – only Sunderland in 2005-06 (6) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (5) have also ever had as few as six points at the half-way mark. At 99.4%, they are almost guaranteed to go down despite the recent appointment of Ivan Juric.
23 December
Throughout Premier League history, being bottom of the table at Christmas has always carried considerable significance – for a while, it was seen as the death knell in a relegation battle.
While four teams have avoided the drop despite being at the foot of the table at Christmas, it still remains something of a benchmark. And it’s fair to say, history won’t make Southampton feel any more optimistic.
Saints, who appointed Ivan Juric on Saturday, did at least end a run of four successive Premier League defeats on Sunday when they drew 0-0 at Fulham. That was their first away point of the season – although it’ll unlikely have supporters suddenly contemplating a second consecutive campaign in the top flight.
After all, in 20th place they stay with six points, half as many as anyone else, with Ipswich Town and Wolves on 12 each.
Understandably, then, Saints’ relegation likelihood ahead of Christmas according to the Opta supercomputer is 97.8%.
As bleak as that looks, who’s to say the new manager can’t inspire a sudden improvement in their fortunes?
For instance, relegation rivals Wolves had lost six on the trot before the weekend and appeared to be sinking without much of a trace, with disciplinary issues also proving problematic.
But in Vitor Pereira’s first match at the helm on Sunday, Wolves ran out 3-0 winners at Leicester City – they held their three-goal lead by half-time, too.
After the prior matchday, their relegation chances went up to 67.2%, so said the Opta supercomputer; now, that’s come down to 52.4%.
They’re by no means out of the woods yet, with 12 points not enough to take them out of the bottom three, but it’s a positive start to the new regime.
Another consequence of that result was to see Leicester’s survival hopes reduce considerably. The Foxes still sit just outside the relegation zone with 14 points, but in the Opta supercomputer’s season projections, they’re now the third likeliest to go down instead of Wolves.
Ruud van Nistelrooy’s side were relegated in 62% of the latest season predictions after that defeat.
Ipswich Town’s situation didn’t improve over the weekend as they were comprehensively thrashed 4-0 by Newcastle United at Portman Road on Saturday, Alexander Isak’s hat-trick doing most of the damage.
Nevertheless, it didn’t actually impact their outlook a great deal. Their relegation probability is at 76.9% in the latest projections, an increase of only 2.3 percentage points from a week ago.
Everton held Chelsea to a 0-0 draw at Goodison Park on Sunday, which most would agree was good result for the Toffees. It saw their relegation probability increase ever so slightly from 7.6% to 7.8%, but it’s hardly a cause for alarm at this point.
We also shouldn’t completely discount Crystal Palace yet. They were thrashed 5-1 at home by Arsenal on Saturday and sit level on 16 points with Everton (who’ve played a game less), though they are still only relegated in 1.6% of the season simulations.
16 December
In what felt like a pivotal weekend for the clubs at the foot of the Premier League table, the bottom two sides, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Southampton, sacked their managers.
Gary O’Neil’s reign at Wolves came to an end after yet another late defeat and questionable discipline from his players at the final whistle, while Russell Martin’s spell at Southampton finished on Sunday evening, just seven months after he had guided them back to the top flight via the Championship play-offs last season.
Southampton’s woes continued with another thrashing, this time at the hands of Tottenham Hotspur at St Mary’s. Five-nil down at half-time, the second half saw little meaningful action at either end of the pitch, as Martin’s time as Saints’ boss came to an end later that night.
Their latest defeat didn’t come as much of a shock to the Opta supercomputer, and it’ll be little surprise to most that their chances of relegation this season now stand at 97.9%, slightly higher than before the weekend (97.0%).
A 2.1% chance of survival is kind considering they’ve become just the third team in Premier League history to win five points or fewer from their opening 16 matches of a season, after Sunderland in 2005-06 (5) and Sheffield United in 2020-21 (2). None of the previous nine teams to have won fewer than nine points from their first 16 games of a Premier League season have avoided relegation.
But history offers a slightly brighter outlook for Wolves, who currently sit on nine points after 16 games.
Their latest defeat, an injury-time loss (and head loss by some players at the full-time whistle) to Ipswich Town saw the curtain fall on O’Neil’s reign as boss. However, four teams have been in their exact position before now (nine points from 16 games) and avoided relegation at the end of the season: Coventry in 1995-96, Wigan in 2007-08, Sunderland in 2013-14 and Southampton in 2018-19.
In the current supercomputer simulations, Wolves (67.2%) are relegated less often than Ipswich (74.6%), but that’s gone up from 47.2% from before Matchday 16, while Kieran McKenna’s side have fallen by over 13 percentage points since then (87.9% vs 74.6%).
Leicester City suffered their first defeat under Ruud van Nistelrooy with a 4-0 defeat at Newcastle on Saturday. Across his three games in charge, Leicester have faced 74 shots – more than any other team in the division.
Their chances of relegation now stand at 49.9%, which is slightly higher than it was before the weekend’s action (46.3%). Their upcoming clash with Wolves on Matchday 17 could make a big difference to those projections in either direction, however.
Arguably the least expected result of the weekend in the Premier League was Everton’s 0-0 draw at title-chasing Arsenal.
Sean Dyche’s side frustrated the Gunners and won a valuable point, despite showing little attacking intent themselves. They attempted just two shots all game, worth just 0.09 expected goals, and landed none on target.
Before the weekend’s action, the Toffees were relegated in 14.2% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 season simulations, nearly double the current projection (7.6%).
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