We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Celtic prediction and preview. Will either team secure a top-eight finish?
Aston Villa vs Celtic Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Aston Villa heavy favourites to finish the league phase of the UEFA Champions League with a win (59.6%).
- Both teams can still finish in the top eight and qualify automatically for the last 16.
- No Scottish side has beaten an English team away in the European Cup/Champions League since Celtic won at Leeds United in 1970.
A Battle of Britain to close out the league phase of the UEFA Champions League? Don’t mind if we do.
On top of that, both Aston Villa and Celtic have something riding on it.
Villa sit in ninth, just one place outside the automatic qualification spots for the last 16. They’re only behind Bayer Leverkusen on goal difference and are one of six teams on 13 points, meaning there’s plenty of potential for chaotic score checking throughout what promises to be a frantic Wednesday night.
We’ve had a go at figuring out who needs to do what on Matchday 8, but for Villa to finish in the top eight they essentially need to:
- win and hope one of Leverkusen, Atalanta, Milan or Atlético Madrid don’t so they can take their spot;
- hope none of Monaco, Lille, Feyenoord or Brest behind them win by a big margin to swing the goal difference.
A draw is unlikely to be enough for Villa, and it definitely won’t be for Celtic.
Brendan Rodgers’ men are 18th in the table but only have one point less than Villa, so things can change pretty quickly. Should Celtic win, they can finish in the top eight if enough teams above them fail to win, although it would take quite a few surprising results.
They are guaranteed at least a place in the play-off round, though, qualifying beyond the group stage/league phase of the Champions League for the first time since 2012-13. Celtic have won three games in the competition this season, having not won more in a European Cup/Champions League edition since 1973-74 (4), when they ultimately reached the semi-finals.
Celtic will hope to repeat their efforts from last season, when they won their final game of the group stage in the Champions League (2-1 vs Feyenoord), though they have never previously done so in back-to-back campaigns.
They’ll have a big task overcoming Aston Villa, who haven’t even conceded at Villa Park in the Champions League this season. Wins over Bayern Munich (1-0) and Bologna (2-0) were followed by a goalless draw with Juventus, and after a 1-1 draw against West Ham on Sunday, Villa remain unbeaten in their last 11 Premier League home games (W6 D5) too.
Ollie Watkins and Morgan Rogers have been in excellent form, but they are still looking for their first Champions League goals for Villa (7 appearances each, 10 shots for Watkins, and 14 shots for Rogers). Indeed, the only player to attempt more shots without scoring than Rogers (14) in the competition this season is Milan’s Theo Hernández (15).
At the other end, though, Emiliano Martínez has been earning his praise. Based on the quality of shots on target faced (via xG on target), only Girona’s Paulo Gazzaniga (+5.1) has prevented more goals than Martínez in the Champions League this season (+4.7 – four conceded from 8.7 xGOT). Overall, the Argentine stopper has saved 31 of the 35 shots on target he’s faced in the competition this season (88.6%).
Celtic will need to find a rare away win. They’ve only won one of their last 21 away games in the Champions League (D5 L15), and are winless in 11 since beating Anderlecht in September 2017 (3-0). Nevertheless, their last two away trips in the competition did see them earn respectable 0-0 draws at Atalanta and Dinamo Zagreb.
Rodgers has a good record against Villa, though. The former Liverpool and Leicester City boss has won nine of his 19 career meetings with Villa (D4 L6), with Crystal Palace (10 wins) the only English side he’s recorded more victories against.
As for team news, Villa will be without Tyrone Mings after the defender limped off with a knee injury in Sunday’s draw with West Ham.
Daizen Maeda will be suspended for Celtic, who will also be without Kyogo Furuhashi due to the notable handicap of him no longer playing for them. The Japan international scored 12 goals in 32 appearances for the club this season but was sold to Rennes earlier this week. Former Hoops favourite Jota moved in the other direction but is ineligible for this game due to not being registered.
Aston Villa vs Celtic Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever meeting between Aston Villa and Celtic. The only time Villa have previously faced Scottish opposition in Europe was against Hibernian in last season’s UEFA Conference League qualifying, winning 8-0 on aggregate.
Celtic have drawn each of their last three games against English opposition in the Champions League, with their most recent such game being a 1-1 stalemate at the Etihad Stadium against Manchester City in December 2016.
Only one Scottish team has ever beaten an English opponent away from home in the European Cup/Champions League, which was Celtic when they defeated Leeds in April 1970 (1-0). Since then, English sides have gone unbeaten across the seven such fixtures (W5 D2).
Aston Villa vs Celtic Prediction
Aston Villa know they’ll likely need to win to haul themselves into the top eight, and the Opta supercomputer believes they’ll get it, with Emery’s men victorious in 59.6% of simulations.
Celtic certainly need three points as well as several results to go their way, and they claim a win in 19.4% of sims, while a draw that would almost certainly see both in the play-offs occurs in the remaining 21.0%.
The supercomputer considers it to be marginally more likely that Villa make the top eight than the play-offs, doing so in 52.6% of simulations. Celtic only manage to sneak into the automatic qualification spots in 0.1% of sims.
Aston Villa vs Celtic Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here are the Opta Power Rankings for both sides.
Aston Villa vs Celtic Squads
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Robin Olsen, Joe Gauci, Matty Cash, Kosta Nedeljkovic, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Tyrone Mings, Ian Maatsen, Lucas Digne, Boubacar Kamara, Ross Barkley, John McGinn, Youri Tielemans, Emiliano Buendía, Amadou Onana, Jacob Ramsey, Morgan Rogers, Leon Bailey, Jhon Durán, Ollie Watkins.
Head Coach: Unai Emery
Celtic: Kasper Schmeichel, Viljami Sinisalo, Scott Bain, Alistair Johnston, Greg Taylor, Liam Scales, Auston Trusty, Alex Valle, Maik Nawrocki, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Reo Hatate, Anthony Ralston, Luis Palma, Nicolas Kühn, Hyunjun, Luke McCowan, Arne Engels, Paulo Bernardo, Callum McGregor, James Forrest, Adam Idah, Adam Montgomery, Daizen Maeda,
Head Coach: Brendan Rodgers
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