Looking at the 36-team league table in the Champions League can be quite daunting, so we’ve summarised the biggest stories to keep an eye on ahead of the final matchday of the league phase.
The new-look Champions League has one round of matches remaining, but there is still a lot to play for.
Unlike the four-team group stage we are used to, the final matchday has something riding on it for most teams involved.
While the bottom nine teams have been eliminated, only the top two – Liverpool and Barcelona – are guaranteed of a spot in the last 16. Arsenal are very, very nearly guaranteed a top-eight place but there is a(n incredibly unlikely) set of results that would send them to the play-offs. We’ve explained all the possible permutations if that’s what you’re after.
That leaves 25 teams still playing for something on Wednesday night. Just two of the 18 fixtures are complete dead rubbers involving two already-eliminated teams, leaving 16 meaningful games for you to follow simultaneously.
Obviously, that’s far too many matches to keep up with, so we’ve summarised the main storylines for you to look out for in the final round of matches.
Are Manchester City Heading Out?
The headline story from the league phase is that 2023 champions and favourites for the competition before this season started, Manchester City, are outside the play-off positions heading into the final matchday.
Only a win will see them through, but they do at least know that a win will definitely be enough because they are facing Club Brugge, who are three points ahead of them but with an inferior goal difference.
In normal circumstances, most would probably back the reigning Premier League champions to beat a Belgian side at home in a must-win game.
City have won both of their previous meetings with Brugge, winning 5-1 away and 4-1 at home during the 2021-22 group stage. Meanwhile, Brugge have lost 12 and won none of their 14 previous away games in England.
But Brugge are no pushovers. They are unbeaten in the last four Champions League matches, winning two and drawing two, including a 1-0 win over Aston Villa and a goalless draw at Juventus. They haven’t lost in any competition in 16 games, a run that stretches back to October.
Extend that run and they will be in the knockouts, while City will crash out. City’s progress is by no means guaranteed.
Is the Top Eight Decided Already?
With Liverpool and Barcelona already through and Arsenal almost certain to join them, there are realistically five top-eight places still up for grabs.
Most currently in the top eight will fancy their chances of staying there. Inter (fourth) will back themselves to keep up their 100% home record in the Champions League this season against Monaco (10th); Atlético Madrid (fifth) should be able to beat already-eliminated Salzburg; Milan (sixth) will be confident of a result against Dinamo Zagreb (26th) and Bayer Leverkusen (eighth) should feel similarly against Sparta Prague (29th).
The biggest hope for Aston Villa – currently only outside the top eight on goal difference – is that Atalanta (seventh) slip up at Barcelona, though with Hansi Flick’s side already through, there is a chance they take their foot off the gas in this game.
The other possibility for Villa is that they beat Celtic by at least two goals more than Leverkusen beat Sparta and overtake them with a superior goal difference. However, given Villa have only scored nine goals in seven Champions League games so far and have only won one game by three clear goals in any competition this season – 3-0 vs Young Boys in September – that feels unlikely.
The top eight might not be completely set in stone, but there is also a chance nothing changes in those positions on the final matchday.
Stuttgart vs PSG is Both the Game to Watch and the Game to Avoid
VfB Stuttgart head into MD 8 in 24th place, clinging on to the final play-off spot as things stand. However, they face arguably the highest-stakes game of the final round of fixtures, hosting 22nd-place Paris Saint-Germain, who themselves need a result to be sure of a play-off place.
Stuttgart do have a two-point cushion, but would be relying on Man City and Dinamo Zagreb both failing to win should they lose to PSG, so they have to head into their match aiming to get at least a point. A win would guarantee a play-off spot, but given their seven-goal advantage over Zagreb, a draw should be enough, too. Meanwhile, a point for PSG will secure their place in the play-offs.
So, might a fixture that has as much riding on it as any other game on Wednesday night in fact be the least entertaining? Both teams could settle for a draw.
The two sides come into this game on decent runs of form, with identical records of eight wins from their last 10 games in all competitions. They both have attacking firepower for their opponents to fear, which might in turn discourage their opponents from coming out of their shells as they prioritise not conceding.
A winner-takes-all game could in fact turn out to be a bore draw that suits everyone.
Will Liverpool Avoid Real Madrid and Bayern Munich?
The new league phase format of the Champions League is designed to – in theory at least – reward teams for finishing high up the table.
That assumes, however, that the top 24 teams finish in order of best to worst. If that happens, the teams in the top two then avoid the third, fourth, fifth and sixth best teams in Europe until the semi-finals. They would also avoid the next best teams (seventh to 14th) until the quarters. Their round-of-16 opponent will come from the four teams finishing between 15th and 18th.
Liverpool, the only side guaranteed to finish in the top two, will face one of those four teams. Before the start of this season’s Champions League, according to the Opta Power Rankings, the 15th, 16th, 17th and 18th best teams in the competition were Juventus, Girona, Monaco and Stuttgart.
However, heading into the final round of fixtures this week, the teams currently occupying those positions are Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus and Celtic. Much less favourable opponents, we can all agree.
Given there are 16 other teams within three points of that group, we shouldn’t expect that they’ll all finish the night in the positions they start it, but there is a chance, and Liverpool fans will understandably be keeping half an eye on Bayern and Real’s results in the hope that they move out of that middle group.
They did of course beat holders Madrid 2-0 at Anfield in November in this season’s competition, but lost seven and won none of their previous eight meetings with them. Bayern, meanwhile, might not be at their strongest, but you could forgive Liverpool for wanting to avoid them.
So, will Liverpool’s reward for finishing in the top two be a round-of-16 heavyweight clash? We’ll soon find out.
Who Will Just Get Lucky?
The margins are so tight in the league phase that, just like in the largely random knockout-stage draws that the Champions League always had prior to this season, there is going to be an element of luck involved.
For example, Man City could quite feasibly finish in one of the bottom two play-off places, earning themselves a two-legged play-off against a team finishing either ninth or 10th in the overall table. It could be that those two teams are Lille and Brest, two sides who have performed impressively in Europe but probably aren’t as strong as those positions would suggest. They currently sit fifth and eighth, respectively, in Ligue 1, Europe’s fifth-strongest league according to the UEFA coefficients table.
If City were to win that play-off, they would then face a team that finished seventh or eighth in the Champions League group stage. The ‘reward’ for finishing in the top eight for those two teams would be the prospect of facing a revived giant, assuming City do what they always do and improve in the final few months of the season.
Perhaps, then, just like the old format, the only thing that really matters is getting through. Beyond that, luck of the draw could be the biggest factor in deciding each team’s fate.
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