Wales face Les Bleus for the 50th time in France. Can they cause an upset in the opening match of this year’s men’s Six Nations? We look ahead to the game with our France vs Wales prediction.
The 2025 men’s Six Nations kicks off under the Friday night lights in Saint-Denis, as France take on Wales – the 50th time these two sides have met on French soil.
Les Bleus will be full of confidence after winning all three of their Autumn Nations Series matches, including a statement victory against the All Blacks. In fact, in the last three years only South Africa and Ireland – the reigning world and Six Nations champions respectively – have won away to France.
Meanwhile, visitors Wales come into the match on the back of a record run of defeats. They have lost their last 12 in a row, with their last victory actually coming on French soil, against Georgia at the 2023 Rugby World Cup.
There isn’t a lot of positivity around Welsh rugby at the moment. However they have been somewhat of a bogey team for France in the Six Nations. The Welsh have won away to Les Bleus on five occasions since Italy joined the tournament in 2000, more than any other side. Current head coach Warren Gatland (2) or his assistant Rob Howley (1) were in the hotseat for three of those wins.
Historically, Friday night tournament openers have been kind to the away side as well, with the visiting side winning on each of the previous four occasions that the Six Nations curtain-raiser has taken place on a Friday.
It’s something France and Wales will be well aware of, given that they each hosted two of those four games. Additionally, in three of those four matches, the team who won on the opening day went on to lift the trophy, including Wales in 2019.
The only exception came in 2015 when England won in Cardiff in Round 1 but missed out on points difference on that famous Super Saturday in the final match.
Overall, Friday fixtures have been the most profitable for away sides in the Six Nations, with 58% being won by the visiting team, although it helps that only 12 matches have taken place on that day.
The scales may well tip slightly more towards the home teams after this weekend, but for now Wales fans can dream…
Strengths
The kicking battle could be key in this match and it’s an area of the game both sides are comfortable utilising when necessary, although they favour different methods.
France averaged the most kicking metres of any Tier One nation in Test rugby last year – by a long way – as they aimed to turn the opposition and win the territorial battle. It was a contrast to Wales who opted to kick shorter but more contestable kicks. That was certainly not a bad tactic given their numbers were incredibly similar to South Africa’s.
France were extremely accurate with their kicking too, and managed to pile the pressure onto their opponents with a 50-22 kick on four occasions – the joint most of any Tier One side in 2024, alongside England and their upcoming opponents, Wales.
Wales, as alluded to, opted to kick more contestable kicks last year, with 15% of their kicks from hand in last year’s Six Nations coming via an up-and-under – a tournament-high.
The kicking battle and the contrast in styles between France and Wales will certainly be interesting to watch on Friday night.
Weaknesses
With France one of the favourites to win this year’s Six Nations, it’s not surprising that they don’t have many weaknesses. However, one area they will be keen to correct from last year was the number of points they gave up when their opponents reached the red zone.
France conceded 3.4 points per 22 entry in the 2024 Championship and although they didn’t concede many 22 entries overall, they were a long way behind champions Ireland and even England in this department. Those two sides were both able to find a balance between limiting 22 entries and stopping opponents from scoring when they did get into the danger zone.
Given their current run of form, highlighting all of Wales’ weaknesses really feels like we’d be sticking the knife in, so we’ll keep it brief: in attack they need to cause the opposition more problems.
In the Six Nations last year, the five other sides all gained between 3.4 and 3.8 metres over the gainline from each carry on average compared to 2.7 metres for Wales. Gatland’s side were the only team to get over the gainline from fewer than half of their carries (46.5%)
Wales need to find a way to get on the front foot to give themselves any chance of having a successful tournament.
France vs Wales Fantasy Picks
If you’re one of the thousands of players taking on your friends in this year’s Fantasy Six Nations game, you might be wondering who to pick. Don’t worry though, we’re here to lend a hand, highlighting the players who might net you some big scores.
Of course, Antoine Dupont will likely be in 90% of teams this year after missing out last time, but you can’t go wrong with either scrum-half in this game – both know their way to the try line.
We won’t dwell too long on the France skipper, who is the top-ranking scrum-half in European rugby this season for tries (1.2), try assists (1.7), carries (15.4), metres gained (88), defenders beaten (5.4) and offloads (3.2) per 80 minutes (min. 240 minutes played). Instead we’ll give his opposite number some kudos for his form this campaign.
Tomos Williams has faced France on six occasions in the Six Nations, registering three tries and three assists in his 200 minutes of playing time – an average of a try involvement every 33 minutes.
His form has been incredible for Gloucester too this season. He has scored six tries and assisted a further six in the Premiership, with no player managing to better his tally of 12 try involvements this campaign (level with Max Llewellyn and Harry Randall).
In the pack, Jac Morgan is likely to pick up some points for his defensive work rate, coming into this match having made an incredible 55 tackles across his last two matches for Wales (27 vs Australia, 28 vs South Africa).
Meanwhile, Paul Boudehent may provide a similar output for France. He made 39 tackles during the recent Autumn Nations Series and didn’t miss a single hit. He also scored three tries for Les Bleus across those three matches.
With tries by forwards counting for more than tries by the backs – at least in fantasy rugby – a similar run of form during this year’s Six Nations could mean he is the man to push your team to the top of the league and secure you those all-important bragging rights.
France vs Wales Prediction
France won this match against Wales in 90.2% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-game simulations, with Wales winning only 9.1% of the time.
The Opta supercomputer score prediction for this France vs Wales match is 38-17 in favour of the home side.
France vs Wales Lineups
France
15. Thomas Ramos, 14. Théo Attissogbe, 13. Pierre-Louis Barassi, 12. Yoram Moefana, 11. Louis Bielle-Biarrey, 10. Romain Ntamack, 9. Antoine Dupont, 1. Jean-Baptiste Gros, 2. Peato Mauvaka, 3. Uini Atonio, 4. Alexandre Roumat, 5. Emmanuel Meafou, 6. François Cros, 7. Paul Boudehent, 8. Grégory Alldritt.
Replacements: 16. Julien Marchand, 17. Cyril Baille, 18. Georges-Henri Colombe, 19. Hugo Auradou, 20. Mickaël Guillard, 21. Oscar Jegou, 22. Nolann Le Garrec, 23. Émilien Gailleton
Wales
15. Liam Williams, 14. Tom Rogers, 13. Nick Tompkins, 12. Owen Watkin, 11. Josh Adams, 10. Ben Thomas, 9. Tomos Williams, 1. Gareth Thomas, 2. Evan Lloyd, 3. Henry Thomas, 4. Will Rowlands, 5. Dafydd Jenkins, 6. James Botham, 7. Jac Morgan, 8. Aaron Wainwright.
Replacements: 16. Elliot Dee, 17. Nicky Smith, 18. Keiron Assiratti, 19. Freddie Thomas, 20. Tommy Reffell, 21. Rhodri Williams, 22. Dan Edwards, 23. Blair Murray
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