Brentford are favoured by the Opta supercomputer to inflict yet more misery on Spurs this weekend. Look ahead to the game at the Gtech Community Stadium with our Brentford vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Brentford vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Brentford the favourites, giving them a 44.2% win probability to Tottenham’s 31.9%.
- Ange Postecoglou could be become the first Spurs manager in over 30 years to oversee five straight Premier League defeats.
- Brentford are the league’s leading home scorers but have failed to win their past four at the Gtech.
Tottenham are looking to arrest an alarming run of form to alleviate the pressure on Ange Postecoglou when they make the short trip to face Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium on Sunday.
Postecoglou is a man under increasing scrutiny at Spurs, who have lost six of their past seven Premier League matches (D1), with no team amassing fewer points since this run started on 22 December.
You have to go back over 20 years for the last time Spurs lost five games in a row, a run of six in October and November 2004 – a streak that included three defeats each for Jacques Santini and Martin Jol.
No Spurs manager has lost five on the spin since Ossie Ardiles way back in 1994, with the Argentine overseeing seven straight defeats.
A win in the Europa League on Thursday provided some respite, though. Tottenham’s academy trio of Mikey Moore, Dane Scarlett and Damola Ajayi helped them overcome Elfsborg 3-0 to confirm their passage into the competition’s last 16.
Results may have been underwhelming, but for the neutral, there’s been no shortage of excitement in matches under Postecoglou. His 61 top-flight games have seen an average of 3.6 goals per match—the highest goal ratio of any manager with 50 or more matches managed (120 goals for, 98 against). The fewest games required for a manager to both score and concede over 100 goals is 65, a record set by former Brighton boss Roberto De Zerbi.
While Tottenham have struggled as a collective, Dejan Kulusevski has been a bright note. No player has created more open-play chances than his 51 in the Premier League this season, while his average of 2.5 created per 90 minutes this term is bettered by only two Spurs players in a season on record (minimum 900 minutes) – Christian Eriksen in 2015-16 (2.6 per 90) and Aaron Lennon in 2010-11 (2.51 per 90).
In a good omen for Spurs, Brentford’s previously strong home record has hit a rough patch, with the Bees now winless in their past four at the Gtech (D1, L3). They have now gone 13 matches without a home clean sheet, last having a longer league run between November 2003 and April 2004 (14). They are, however, the league’s leading scorers on home soil with 29 and picked up just their second win from 10 games at Crystal Palace last weekend.
Interestingly, the team scoring first in this fixture has failed to win the previous five encounters, with Spurs fighting back to win twice, Brentford once, and two draws.
You should certainly expect goals in this one, too. Brentford and Tottenham are two of three sides, alongside Wolves, whose games have seen 80-plus goals in the Premier League this season (83 for Spurs, 82 for Brentford). The Bees have faced the most shots faced against them (429), and only four sides have had more than Spurs’ 333 shots at goal.
Bryan Mbeumo is likely to be the hosts’ danger man. The Cameroon forward has 17 goal involvements this term (14 goals, 3 assists), with only four players involved in more. Ivan Toney is the only player to have recorded more in a single season for Brentford (20 goals, 4 assists in the 2022-23 campaign).
Thomas Frank was hopeful Kevin Schade and Christian Nørgaard would be fine after both were substituted in last weekend’s win at Palace, though Rico Henry has a hamstring issue after only recently returning from a long lay-off.
Tottenham’s scarcely believable injury list has undoubtedly contributed to their woes, and centre-back Radu Dragusin is the latest to be added to the treatment table. He picked up a knee injury in the second half of the game in midweek.
The Romanian joins James Maddison, Wilson Odobert, Guglielmo Vicario, Brennan Johnson, Timo Werner, Dominic Solanke, Destiny Udogie and Cristian Romero on the sidelines for this one.
Brentford vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Brentford have faced Spurs seven times in the Premier League and have recorded just one victory in those matches (D3 L3).
Each of the three games played between these sides at the Gtech has finished in a draw.
Spurs were victorious the last time these sides met, coming out as 3-1 victors at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in September. They are now looking to complete a league double over the Bees for the first time.
Brentford vs Tottenham Prediction
Brentford’s impressive form at the Gtech this season means they are rated as favourites with the supercomputer to triumph over Tottenham, winning 44.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Despite their well-documented struggles, Spurs still retain a 31.8% chance of coming out on top, with the draw occurring 24.0% of the time.
Brentford currently occupy 11th spot in the Premier League table are most likely to finish there come May (17.4%). Spurs, conversely, are stumbling down in 15th and have a 20% chance of finishing there come the end of the season. Their chances of being relegated are only rated as 0.3% possibility.
Brentford vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
