Our college basketball WAR metric reveals who are the hardest players to replace this season. The top 10 includes standouts from the blue bloods, but also a couple from up-and-coming teams.
It’s WAR week at Opta Analyst.
Earlier this week, we highlighted the top 10 Division 1 men’s players by our new college basketball WAR (Wins Above Replacement) this season and explained what made each of these players valued by the metric.
Now, we’re doing the same with the top 10 women’s players.
When you compare the top players in WAR in men’s and women’s basketball, you can see that the best players in the women’s game have compiled more value when compared with replacement players. In fact, every player on this top 10 list has at least 5.0 WAR; in the men’s game, only Braden Smith of Purdue has that much.
This means there are some truly elite superstars playing women’s NCAA basketball. And here are the 10 that have compiled the most value (as of Friday).
1. JuJu Watkins, USC (6.53 WAR)
Watkins burst onto the season last year and was a first-team All-American as a freshman. She hasn’t had a sophomore slump.
Watkins ranks third in VAPR, our rate statistic designed to measure how well a player has played on a per-minute basis. But she jumps to the top of the WAR leaderboard because she’s averaging over 33 minutes per game, significantly more than the two players ahead of her in VAPR. That has given her more time on the floor to add value.
She may be averaging less points than last year, but she’s been a much more efficient scorer and has a better feel for the game. Opposing defenses have keyed in on her all season and she’s improved her decision-making and cut down on her turnovers, averaging one less turnover per game this season (4.1 last year, 3.1 this year). She ranks ninth in offensive VAPR (O-VAPR).
Defensively, she’s a legitimate playmaker. Only six players in the country are averaging at least 1.75 blocks and steals per game, and Watkins clears both of those marks easily (2.3 steals and 1.9 blocks). She’s ranked 13th in defensive VAPR (D-VAPR), making her one of only four players in the country to be ranked in the top 15 in both O-VAPR and D-VAPR.
2. Sarah Strong, UConn (6.47)
It might be surprising for some to see a UConn player ranked second who isn’t Paige Bueckers. But anyone who has followed the Huskies closely this season knows how impressive Strong has been during her freshman season.
Strong is also ranked first in VAPR, so she’s performed the best on a per-minute basis and also added the second-most value overall.
She’s an underrated offensive player because she’s only averaging 17.6 points, which is a very good but not elite mark. But that’s because of the context of the talented team around her. UConn has asked Strong to do a lot of different things offensively, and she’s been good at all of them.
Strong is shooting 70.4% on 2-point attempts and 37.0% on 3-point attempts. Her 64.9 effective field-goal percentage is 10th in the country, and a remarkable number for a high-volume scorer. And she’s more than just a tip of the spear offensive player. She may not be the primary engine for the offense, but she’s a willing and able passer as well. With all of these skills, she’s ranked second in O-VAPR.
Defensively, there isn’t much of a drop-off, as she’s ranked eighth in D-VAPR. Strong is one of the best multi-faceted defenders in the country and impacts the game on the perimeter and at the rim when needed. Her versatility on both ends is a huge component in her ranking second overall in WAR.
3. Hailey Van Lith, TCU (6.31)
Fit is such a crucial part of basketball, and Van Lith has found the perfect fit for her game this season at TCU.
After a somewhat disappointing campaign statistically at LSU, Van Lith’s numbers are up in both traditional and advanced statistics. It’s fair to say some of her WAR value is tied up in the fact that she’s ninth in the country in total minutes, as she’s only 15th in VAPR. But she’s still had a remarkable season thus far.
Van Lith has thrived being on the ball more with spacing around her. She’s really benefited from playing alongside Madison Conner, one of the best high-volume shooters in the country. With a lot of room to operate, Van Lith’s efficiency has soared, especially within the arc. She shot 40.0% on 2-pointers last year; that’s up to 53.5% this year.
She’s been more efficient setting up teammates as well. Van Lith is averaging 2.2 more assists per game this season (from 3.6 to 5.8) but averaging the same number of turnovers (2.6). With the ball in her hands, Van Lith has been explosive and decisive. Her rebound has been one of the biggest stories in college basketball this year.
4. Hannah Hidalgo, Notre Dame (6.10)
Hidalgo was already an incredibly impressive freshman, but her jump in efficiency this year has a loaded Notre Dame team looking like a title contender.
Hidalgo is another player who leaves very little off the table offensively. She’s an elite scorer and shooter, a capable passer and a nightmare to try and guard. Her 3-point shot has gone from passable (34%) last year to excellent (43%) this year. And without the ability to leave her open from deep, defenses are at a loss as to how to stop her. She’s the second-leading scorer in the country and third in O-VAPR.
Defensively, she’s one of the best thieves in the NCAA. She leads the league with 4.1 steals per game and that’s down from last year’s 4.6. Notre Dame has a lot of great defensive players who play different roles. Sonia Citron is the stopper on the team, and Hidalgo is the playmaker who generates live ball turnovers that help jumpstart the offense.
She’s the 20th-best defensive player in the nation, according to VAPR.
5. Paige Bueckers, UConn (5.80)
Bueckers has been as good as advertised this year, especially offensively. In fact, she’s the best offensive player in the country, per O-VAPR.
Like her teammate Strong, Bueckers could average more points if she wanted to, but instead she averages a hyper-efficient 19.0 points per game. Bueckers has aced every test defenses have thrown at her and there isn’t a spot on the floor where she’s not a threat.
Bueckers has elite shooting splits (54.6% from the field, 42.6% on 3-pointers and 83.6% on free throws) and only averages 1.4 turnovers per game. And she’s looked more and more confident as the season has progressed.
Defensively, Bueckers is very good but not elite like Strong or Watkins. She’s not quite the playmaker those two are on that side of the ball, though she still does generate steals without being out of position.
Overall, Bueckers is second in VAPR because of her elite offensive ability.
6. Olivia Miles, Notre Dame (5.79)
There aren’t many players who can match the scoring and passing combination of Miles, who runs the show for one of the most talented teams in the country.
Miles is 19th in the nation in effective field goal percentage and fourth in assists. She’s also cut down on her turnovers some this year and is constantly making the right decision. Miles has always been a dynamite athlete with good intuition, but this year she’s taking her manipulation of the chessboard to a new level on offense. She’s ranked 16th in O-VAPR.
She also ranks 35th in D-VAPR, which would be tops on most teams but is somehow only fifth on Notre Dame because of all the excellent defensive talent the team possesses. But having a player at the point of attack who not only isn’t a liability but actually excels is key to what Notre Dame does.
Miles is 13th in VAPR and her potential to be even greater will likely get her drafted in the top three come April.
7. Madison Conner, TCU (5.57)
Conner was mentioned earlier as a key player in Van Lith’s season, and she’s an elite player in her own right. Her ability to shoot often and accurately from deep would be a fit on any offense in the country, and it looks especially good playing off Van Lith.
Conner leads in the nation in 3-pointers made and still hits them at a blistering 45.9% clip. She knows her role, too; over 70% of her shots come from behind the arc. And she’s a quality passer when teams run her off the arc and scramble to recover. Overall, she’s 11th in O-VAPR.
Defensively, she’s just average and levels below the other players in the top 10 in WAR. But average is better than a lot of 3-point specialists and she doesn’t get played off the floor in big moments.
8. Serena Sundell, Kansas State (5.36)
Sundell is a testament to how much difference a great playmaker can make. She’s a lead guard with size who knows how to bend the defense and set up her teammates for easy looks.
Her efficiency as a scorer has gone down this year as her 3-point shooting has cratered. But there is some optimism there. Sundell’s 3-point shooting has gone from 39.8% to 27.1%, but her free-throw shooting has gone from 60.2% to 78.0%, suggesting that her shooting ability hasn’t left her completely.
If she can fix her 3-point shooting, she can be a dynamic scorer in addition to a dynamic playmaker. And she’s already a very good offensive player, ranking 30th in O-VAPR.
9. Aneesah Morrow, LSU (5.32)
Morrow is the biggest compiler in the top 10. She ranks ninth in WAR despite being 51st in VAPR because she’s fifth among major conference players in total minutes played. But the fact that she can play that many minutes while maintaining her incredibly high energy is impressive.
Morrow brings an edge to LSU with her effort and athleticism. She leads the nation in offensive rebounds and total rebounds per game. She’s a measly second in defensive rebounds per game.
Offensively, she’s able to score an efficiency 18.7 points per game despite not being an outside shooting threat. And she only turns it over 2.0 times per game as well. She’s a high-volume energy player that also stays within herself and plays a ton of minutes, which adds up to a very valuable player for LSU.
10. Sedona Prince, TCU (5.28)
There are players who bring value by doing something other players don’t, and players who bring value by being among the best at doing what a lot of players do.
Prince is in the latter camp. There are plenty of bigs who score in the post, set screens, rebound and block shots. But Prince does all of these at a high level.
She’s a forceful player, but her footwork in the post sometimes gets overlooked. She knows how to get to where she wants to on the floor and when she gets there, it’s over for the defense.
Defensively, her biggest strength is clearly at the rim, as she leads the nation with 3.4 blocks per game. TCU doesn’t have the same level of perimeter defenders as a lot of the other top-10 teams, so having Prince as a deterrent inside is a big part of its defensive success.
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