The hopes of either Manchester City or Arsenal winning the Women’s Super League look all but over ahead of Sunday’s clash, but both sides will be looking for a win that would at least keep leaders Chelsea in their sights.
The Women’s Super League title race is firmly in Chelsea’s control, as the Blues sit seven points clear at the summit.
The only time there has been a bigger gap in the WSL standings after the top team had played exactly 12 games was in 2016-17, when Manchester City were 10 points clear of Chelsea.
This time around, however, City are only part of a tightly congested chasing pack, headed by rivals Manchester United, who continue to show they should not be ignored. They sit two points ahead of third-place City, who are one point ahead of Arsenal.
On Sunday, City welcome Arsenal to the Joie Stadium, with both teams knowing this is a key game not just in the title picture, but in the race for European football next season.
Chelsea beat Arsenal 1-0 last time out, but the Gunners haven’t lost any of their last four matches against City. They drew a 2-2 thriller in September, but won the previous three beforehand, all by 2-1 scorelines.
City are aiming to banish that record by putting down a marker in this battle as they look to emerge as Chelsea’s main challengers. The reverse fixture at the Emirates Stadium was a keenly fought affair filled with goals and drama.
September’s Stalemate
Vivianne Miedema made her first return to the Emirates in that match after the Gunners decided not to renew her contract, resulting in her switching to rival title contenders City in a blockbuster move.
Arsenal broke the deadlock first through Frida Maanum, but Miedema was always going to have a say and brought the two sides level by scoring her first WSL goal for City.
Jess Park then rifled a shot into the top-right corner from the edge of the 18-yard box, leaving the Emirates faithful in despair.
Beth Mead, who has scored eight goals on the opening weekend of the WSL, still had a role to play in what was an enthralling encounter, and equalised in the 81st minute, meaning the points were shared.
Arsenal have not lost any of their last four WSL games against City – they are the only team currently on an unbeaten run longer than one game against Taylor’s team, so they should feel confident as they travel north.
City have won twice as many points by coming from behind as any other team in the WSL this season (10) though, while only in 2018-19 have they rescued more points from losing positions in a single top-flight campaign (13).
After coming from behind on the opening day of the season, albeit not to win, Taylor’s side will feel they have the ability to weather the storm.
Never before have the Gunners lost their first two WSL away games of a calendar year, while they are also unbeaten in their last seven league visits to the north west (W4 D3).
Swapsies – Red to Blue, Blue to Red
It has been widely reported that Arsenal’s summer transfer activity, and not renewing Miedema’s contract, was a financial decision. In a recent interview, former Arsenal manager Jonas Eidevall explained there was a choice between bringing in Spanish 2023 World Cup winner Mariona Caldentey from Barcelona or renewing Miedema’s deal.
But was this a wise decision from the Gunners?
Miedema has netted four goals from 2.88 xG this season in the WSL, having 26 shots in total, with her shot conversion rate sitting at 15.4%. She has also created six chances, though only accumulated 0.66 xA.
Though her City career has been hampered by a two-month stint on the sideline through injury, she has featured eight times in all competitions, scoring six goals. She particularly shone in their 2-0 win over Barcelona in the Champions League group stage.
Caldentey, meanwhile, has scored three goals, the third-best among Arsenal players, while her 3.49 xG is second only to Alessia Russo (5.19). She has had six big chances this term (behind only Stina Blackstenius and Russo, both eight), scoring two.
Caldentey has created the second-most chances (18, behind Katie McCabe’s 27), but has provided just one assist from 3.47 xA.
Her biggest impact has come in the Champions League though, adding four goals and two assists in six games, proving key to the renaissance under Renée Slegers.
There was big movement between the sides on WSL Deadline Day too, with the highlight a move from Manchester to London for England international Chloe Kelly, who had fallen out of favour with Taylor this season, playing just 165 minutes.
Some will consider allowing one of your most talented attacking players to join a rival a strange move on City’s part. Kelly will be ineligible to play this weekend against her parent club, and only time will tell if City have made a mistake or not.
Elsewhere on deadline day, Laura Wienroither went the other way, joining City and linking up again with former teammate Miedema. Taylor will be hoping she can bring some much-needed cover, with Alex Greenwood out.
It’s Decision Time
One area where Taylor could be criticised this season is his decision not to stick with a regular goalkeeper. This, combined with their defensive frailties, could be a factor as to why they’ve not been able to keep pace in the title race.
They have felt Greenwood’s absence, as they average 1.7 goals against without her in the team, as opposed to 0.8 with her. City have kept four clean sheets in the nine games in which Greenwood has played.
Greenwood still leads the way for interceptions (10) among City defenders, while only Kerstin Casparij (6) has made more blocks this term (4). Greenwood has also won the second-most duels (37) behind Casparij (45).
City’s backline is calling out for stability and a leader, which must come from between the sticks. But who will Taylor choose, Ayaka Yamashita or Khiara Keating?
Yamashita has played seven games in the WSL this year, with Keating playing five. The latter has kept more clean sheets (three to Yamashita’s two) and conceded just one goal fewer (six) than the Japan international (seven).
Yamashita boasts the better save percentage (65.22% to Keating’s 57.14%) and has made 15 saves from 56 shots faced (Keating has made nine saves from 41 shots).
The 29-year-old has conceded 7.2 expected goals on target (xGoT) compared to Keating’s 5.28.
Keating, who won the 2023-24 Golden Glove by keeping nine clean sheets across the course of the season, has made one error leading to a goal and two errors leading to shots this term, while Yamashita is yet to make any.
Overall, City have faced the fewest shots (96) in the WSL this season, but have conceded 14 goals, more than any other team in the top four. Their five clean sheets are also the fewest of that group, though only Arsenal (9.67) and Chelsea (10.04) have a lower xG against than City’s 11.46.
It could be key to City’s success if Taylor can settle on a keeper to ensure their backline has a clear and consistent voice.
Pipped at the Death
Slegers would have been disappointed after Arsenal didn’t come away with a point despite a spirited performance against leaders Chelsea last weekend.
Arsenal conceded 2.94 xG against the Blues, facing 21 shots in total – nine of which were on target, and 14 were inside the box, the most they had faced since January 2018 (11 vs Chelsea). Chelsea also had six big chances.
By contrast, Arsenal managed just 10 attempts (two on target) and created just 1.05 xG. They had zero big chances, though did have more final-third entries (55 to Chelsea’s 48).
The Gunners boast one of the best defensive records in the WSL, though. They have conceded the joint-second fewest goals (six, level with Chelsea), behind only Man Utd (five).
Arsenal have conceded the lowest xGA in the league (9.67) and have also faced the second-fewest shots (102), behind only City.
At the other end of the pitch, the Citizens are the second-highest goalscorers this season in the WSL with 27, while Arsenal sit second with 25. However, they both trail Chelsea, who have 37.
Arsenal also rank third for expected goals (23.92) behind Chelsea (28.23) and City (26.93), and total shots (193). However, Arsenal’s shot conversion rate is only 12.95%, the fifth-best in the league, though only marginally worse than City’s 12.98%.
City are just three goals away from becoming the third team to score 500 goals in the WSL, after Chelsea (623) and Arsenal (602).
City fans will also have been happy to see Katie McCabe lose her cool in the final moments against Chelsea as she was sent off, meaning she will be unavailable for Arsenal this weekend. She ranks first in the league for overall chances created (27), with 12 of those classed as big chances, and she will be a big loss for the Gunners.
If Khadija Shaw is still not fit enough to play, City could have a problem of their own, though. In the WSL this season, City have lost both games she has not played in, averaging 1.5 goals per game, compared to 2.4 with her in the side.
Of the 10 games she has played this season, City have lost just one (W8 D1). The Jamaican did come on in the 77th minute last weekend against Aston Villa, and they will be hoping she can start on Sunday.
What Does the Opta Supercomputer Predict?
The Opta supercomputer is leaning towards a home victory for City this weekend.
Ahead of this intriguing encounter, the hosts are handed a win probability of 46.1%, with the draw given a 26.7% chance and Arsenal given a 27.3% likelihood of victory.
We are likely set for a close game, and Arsenal will hope it proves closer than the supercomputer suggests. If the reverse fixture is in any way repeated, we should certainly be entertained.
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