Everyone wanted a feel-good story and Joe Schmidt to stick around, but from his opening press conference as Wallabies coach, the New Zealander articulated why he had only signed a short-term deal through to the Lions series.
“It’s pretty much public knowledge that I have a young man at home who suffers quite bad with epilepsy and this job will take me away from the time that we committed to pitching in and helping him out,” Schmidt said early in his maiden address.
“If we can get the job done over the next 18 months and get the momentum heading in the right direction then I will feel like I’ve done my part of it and I’ll be happy to hand on. Or, if there are some Australian coaches that come through, I’m really keen to try help get some of the Australian coaches a little bit more experience as well, so they can pitch up and lead the Wallabies.”
Asked whether he saw the mission as a “hit and run job”, Schmidt said “certainly not”.
“For both RA and myself it is a good fit,” Schmidt said.
“If you were going to make a change before the World Cup, you don’t want to do it a year out.
“You want to make sure you’ve got a decent run at it, but at the same time if we get to the end of the British and Irish Lions series and things are going in the right direction and discussion amongst the board and Phil and Pete is that the best thing is for me to stay, then that’s a bridge we will cross then.”
RA CEO Phil Waugh unveiled Joe Schmidt as the Wallabies’ coach on January 19, 2024 in Sydney. (Photo by Mark Metcalfe/Getty Images)
While Schmidt will step away as head coach, it’s believed the New Zealander is happy to continue as a consultant or advisor for Rugby Australia.
But any announcement of a future role isn’t likely to occur until the next head coach is revealed, but it’s likely that it will be someone who already has a working relationship with Schmidt.
So now that the cat is out of the bag and Schmidt is stepping away as head coach after The Rugby Championship, who is most likely to take over?
Favourites
Les Kiss – Queensland Reds
For months there have been noises that Kiss – Schmidt’s former right-hand man at Ireland, having worked together with Ireland for the 2015 World Cup campaign – had emerged as the leading contender to take over the Wallabies.
There was even talk that Schmidt had sounded out a high-profile coach overseas to take over from Kiss, should the Queenslanders be moved into the top job.
With two decades of coaching experience, Kiss certainly has the experience on the international stage and domestically to put himself in the shop window to take over Schmidt.
But questions have long hovered over his head about the absence of silverware to go along with his long resume.
That doesn’t mean he can’t coach, it’s just that he’s gone to sides that needed to be rebuilt – and more often than not he has done just that.
Les Kiss (R) worked alongside Joe Schmidt in Ireland for the 2015 World Cup campaign: Photo: Seb Daly / SPORTSFILE via Getty Images)
The Reds, meanwhile, have been more of a polishing job, with a healthy dose of recruitment needed in the tight-five to become a contender.
Now they are – and the expectation is high for Kiss given he has a squad with depth and quality in it.
While Queensland Rugby would want him to serve out his three-year contract, it would be a ballsy play to stand in the way of him being promoted to the top job.
Dan McKellar – NSW Waratahs
This was the campaign McKellar always wanted to lead the Wallabies through.
After jumping on Dave Rennie’s ticket in 2021, McKellar held ambitions of taking over the Wallabies following the 2023 World Cup. Those plans went out the window when Eddie Jones signed a five-year deal through to the 2027 campaign Down Under.
The coaching changes saw McKellar take up an opportunity at Leicester, but after a difficult first season the Queenslander left and found his way to the Waratahs, leaving Scott Wisemantel in the cold.
McKellar has quickly assembled a star-studded outfit, with the help of Hamish McLennan delivering Joseph-Aukuso Suaalii to the Super Rugby outfit and the Rebels being wound up.
The former Brumbies coach is a well-known hard-task master and his no-frills approach is exactly what the perennial under-achieving Waratahs need.
Dan McKellar has returned to Australian rugby recently to lead the Waratahs. Photo: Hugo Carr/NSW Waratahs
One theory doing the rounds not long ago was McKellar would join the Wallabies later this year, before coaching the Waratahs next season before taking over the national team full-time mid-2026.
Could he do it? Absolutely, but it’s possibly one or two years too early.
Possibles
Michael Cheika – Free agent
The 2015 World Rugby coach of the year is in many ways the perfect candidate.
Unlike the front-runners, he knows everything about World Cups having led the Wallabies to the World Cup final in 2015 and eight years later Argentina to a semi-final.
He remains the only coach on the planet to have won major silverware in the south and north, having led Leinster to the European Champions Cup and later the Waratahs to a maiden title in 2014.
Even better, Cheika is a free agent because he decided against re-signing with Leicester Tigers, who are in the hunt for an English Premiership and still in the Champions Cup this season, for family reasons and he also craves an international role.
Michael Cheika has been to three World Cups as a coach and will be a free agent in June. (Photo by Michael Regan – World Rugby/World Rugby via Getty Images)
But with Waugh in charge of RA, it seems highly unlikely Cheika will be the No.1 option because the former Wallaby was on the board in 2019 when the coach’s reign blew up in smoke after a turbulent few years.
Would Cheika also want to work alongside Schmidt given he detested having Scott Johnson as his boss at the 2019 World Cup?
The benefit of Cheika would be that he wouldn’t disrupt the Super Rugby programs, while he’s also known as a mover and shaker who is at his best over a two-year period.
International coaching is also different to week-to-week coaching at domestic level. Just ask Dave Rennie.
Stephen Larkham – ACT Brumbies
The 1999 World Cup winner’s name is rugby royalty in Australia and that carries weight.
He’s also led the Brumbies to consecutive Super Rugby semi-final appearances, with his former side well-drilled and driven.
Larkham also has some international experience to draw on, first as a player, but secondly in the coach’s box having been an assistant coach under Munster.
Stephen Larkham (L) worked alongside Michael Cheika for years. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
He was also Cheika’s long-time assistant, before the pair fell out in 2018. Before then though, Larkham juggled his duties with the Brumbies and Wallabies and he helped lead his former side to the 2015 World Cup final.
Although Larkham is calm and methodical, the former playmaker’s communication style still rubs a lot of people the wrong way. It’s the unfortunate elephant in the room that could hinder his chances.
Smokey
Stuart Lancaster
Although Lancaster is remembered as being the man who presided over England’s failed home World Cup campaign in 2015, the coach is highly respected and rebuilt his career with Leinster – the Irish heavyweights, who dominate European rugby.
Lancaster spread his wings recently in the French Top 14, but the move hasn’t proved so successful. Indeed, he’s just been let go after a less than impressive first season.
He’s not the first though, with Cheika and Ewen McKenzie both struggling during their brief spells in France too.
Lancaster has always been fascinated by Australian rugby and spent some time in Queensland post his 2015 struggles.
A relationship with Schmidt won’t hurt his chances either.
Worth a call
Ronan O’Gara – La Rochelle
One of the most impressive young coaches in world rugby, it’s screaming out for an international side to pounce on the former Irish playmaker.
It’s just whether O’Gara would take on another role, with the coach seemingly sniffing the Irish role in 2028 when Andy Farrell likely makes way after two World Cup cycles in the role.
Ronan O’Gara is one of the best coaches on the planet not to have been in charge of an international team. (Photo by David Rogers/Getty Images)
O’Gara had a well-publicized and successful stint at the Crusaders, where he worked alongside Scott Robertson.
He also has a strong relationship with former Wallabies captain Will Skelton, with the second-rower currently playing under O’Gara.
Vern Cotter – Blues
The former Scotland coach returned to Super Rugby last year and immediately delivered, leading the Auckland-based side to a drought-breaking title as they swept aside everyone they met.
Cotter immediately got the Blues playing to their strengths, playing Vern-ball by using their physicality and going through the middle. The change of tactics was pragmatic and hard to stop, it was also the closest style to the international side that you will see.
Whether Cotter would be interested remains to be seen, and it’s highly unlikely the NZR would simply let the Blues coach leave either.
Nonetheless, he’s got the credentials to do the job.
Leon MacDonald – Free agent
After falling out with Robertson inside a year with the All Blacks, MacDonald became a free agent midway through last year’s Rugby Championship.
It wasn’t long before noises started coming out that MacDonald was interested in Australian rugby.
He spoke with the Western Force late last year, but that didn’t eventuate to anything.
There were also noises that he might jump on board Schmidt’s Wallabies coaching team. Thus far it hasn’t occurred.
Leon MacDonald (L) departed from Scott Robertson’s All Blacks coaching team after just five Tests in 2024. (Photo by Hannah Peters/Getty Images)
Schmidt and MacDonald have a strong relationship, with the former All Black luring the coach back onto the field with the Blues a few years ago. That seemingly lit the spark inside Schmidt and it wasn’t long before the All Blacks tapped him up too.
MacDonald also needs a job after his coaching credentials took a hit by leaving the All Blacks. But is that what the Wallabies need now?
Dave Rennie – Kobe
The former Wallabies coach was brutally shown the door after three years because his team couldn’t convert close games into important wins.
In the end, he finished with a win rate of just 36 per cent – a fraction below the Wallabies’ 41 per cent win rate since 2016.
Since then, Rennie has continued his coaching career in Japan after being put on gardening leave in 2023.
It would be highly unlikely that Rennie would return to Australia after being sidelined in 2023 to accommodate Eddie Jones’ arrival, but there’s no doubt he would have some unfinished business not just with the Wallabies but from an international coaching perspective.
Laurie Fisher – Wallabies assistant
The current grandfather of coaching in Australian rugby, Fisher is still out on the field barking orders and insisting on doing the basics of the game well. It’s been the DNA of the Brumbies, his former side, for years.
It’s understood Fisher was likely to finish up at year’s end, but could the veteran coach be enticed to stay on and guide the Wallabies through to the World Cup?
It’s highly unlikely, especially given Fisher has grown into the role of being an assistant coach, but it’s worth sounding out his thoughts on the role and, indeed, any applicant.
