Can Wales end their winless run in Rome against an Italy team that will be brimming with confidence? Look ahead to this weekend’s opening fixture with our Italy vs Wales prediction.
Italy and Wales are two teams on different trajectories. It wasn’t long ago that Italy’s place in the Six Nations was under scrutiny, while Wales were lifting the title as recently as 2021.
It was a last-gasp try against Wales in 2022 though which saw Italy claim their first win in the Championship since 2015 and kick-start a revolution that has since quashed any lingering doubts of their ability to compete at this level.
That defeat in 2022 was Wales’ fourth of the Championship, and while alarm bells were starting to ring, many presumed Warren Gatland’s return to the helm would see Wales start fighting at the right end of the table again.
That hasn’t been the case. Wales’ only victory in the Six Nations since then came in this exact fixture in 2023 (29-17) and they currently sit on 13 straight Test defeats. In the professional era, only Italy (16 between 2019 and 2021) have gone on a longer losing run among Tier 1 Nations.
Another final-day victory against Gatland’s men last year meant Italy finished their campaign with just two defeats, their best ever return. Gonzalo Quesada’s side may have kicked off 2025 with a loss to Scotland, but they have seldom gone into a Six Nations fixture with hopes this high.
Will they be partying on the streets of Rome come Saturday evening, or will Wales finally lift themselves out of the doldrums? Opta’s prediction model gives Italy a 68% chance of victory, but where will this game be won or lost?
Strengths
Italy and Wales aren’t afraid to put their bodies on the line in defence, recording more tackles than any other sides in the opening round of this year’s Six Nations (Italy 212, Wales 185). Italy’s tally was the fifth time a team has made 200+ tackles since the start of last year’s Championship, with the Azzurri responsible for four of those instances.
They were also dominant from 12% of those tackles, the highest rate of any side last weekend, while for Wales, they were dominant from 35% of their carries, the second highest rate, only behind France (41%). In typical Warrenball fashion, Wales were also the only nation to make 200+ metres in contact (244).
Wales may not have attempted a place-kick against France, but they’ve been strong off the tee in recent times, with France (87%) and Australia (85%) the only Tier 1 sides side to boast a higher success rate than them since the 2023 Rugby World Cup (84%).
Italy, meanwhile, have a 75% kicking success rate over the same period, yet they were the only team to go perfect off the tee last weekend. Tommaso Allan dutifully knocked over four penalties and a conversion to keep them close in a game where they were outscored five tries to one.
Weaknesses
It might sound simplistic to say, but one of Wales’ biggest shortcomings at the moment is their inability to score. Their 43-0 loss to France last week was the first time they had been held scoreless in a Five/Six Nations match since 1998 (51-0 vs France). As dominant as France were in that game, Wales weren’t totally bereft of opportunities, but they failed to make anything of their five attacking 22 entries.
It’s a trend that’s haunted Wales throughout their current poor run. Since the start of 2024, they have averaged just 2.17 points per entry into the opposition 22, the lowest of any Tier 1 nation over that period. That’s just behind their opponents Italy, who haven’t fared much better in that regard (2.23 points per entry).
Equally worrying is Wales’ ineffectiveness in their own 22, with Gatland’s men just one of two sides to average 3+ points conceded per defensive entry in that time (3.3, Japan 3.5).
Italy, meanwhile, will want to improve their speed at the breakdown to generate more try-scoring opportunities for their flair-filled backline. Only England (4.9 seconds) recorded a slower average attacking ruck speed than the Azzurri (4.0 seconds) last weekend. Their inability to slow down their defensive rucks will also be of concern to Quesada; a defensive ruck speed of 3.5 seconds was second quickest only to France, who allowed Wales an average attacking speed of 3.0 seconds.
Fantasy Picks
2024 Player of the Championship Tommaso Menoncello was Italy’s top fantasy points scorer in Round 1, netting 39 in total, while captain Jac Morgan returned Wales’ largest haul (49). Morgan was his typical all-action self, recording 38 metres in contact, the most of any player, while also racking up points for his relentless number of carries and tackles.
Italy’s back three presents some enticing fantasy options. Monty Ioane made four line breaks and scored a try against Wales in last year’s corresponding fixture, and gained 162 metres against them the year prior. Ange Capuozzo’s only previous appearance against Wales saw him make 111 metres and assist Edoardo Padovani’s match-winning try.
For those hunting value in the pack, this game is stacked with high-volume tacklers which looks like an easy way to rack up points. Just five players completed 20+ tackles in the opening round, and all of them could feature in this game: Italy’s Michele Lamaro (20), Giacomo Nicotera (20) and Sebastian Negri (26), as well as Welsh duo Jac Morgan (21) and Dafydd Jenkins (24).
Negri’s tally of 26 was the joint-second most by an Italy player in the Championship (Michele Lamaro, 27 vs Scotland last year) and the back-rower also scored his only Six Nations try at home to Wales in 2023, making him a very tempting pick.
Italy vs Wales Prediction
The Opta supercomputer not only backs Italy to win on Saturday but gives the Azzurri a 67.8% chance of victory, compared to Wales’ 31.3%.
To make matters worse for Warren Gatland’s side, the model doesn’t see them picking up even a losing bonus point. Italy are projected to come out on top with a predicted scoreline of 28-20, deepening Wales’ struggles in the Championship.
Italy vs Wales Lineups
Italy
15 Tommaso Allan, 14 Ange Capuozzo, 13 Juan Ignacio Brex, 12 Tommaso Menoncello, 11 Monty Ioane, 10 Paolo Garbisi, 9 Martin Page-Relo, 1 Danilo Fischetti, 2 Giacomo Nicotera, 3 Simone Ferrari, 4 Niccolo Cannone, 5 Federico Ruzza, 6 Sebastian Negri, 7 Michele Lamaro, 8 Lorenzo Cannone
Replacements: 16 Gianmarco Lucchesi, 17 Luca Rizzoli, 18 Marco Riccioni, 19 Dino Lamb, 20 Manuel Zuliani, 21 Ross Vintcent, 22 Alessandro Garbisi, 23 Jacopo Trulla
Wales
15 Liam Williams, 14 Tom Rogers, 13 Nick Tompkins, 12 Eddie James, 11 Josh Adams, 10 Ben Thomas, 9 Tomos Williams, 1 Gareth Thomas, 2 Evan Lloyd, 3 Henry Thomas, 4 Will Rowlands, 5 Dafydd Jenkins, 6 James Botham, 7 Jac Morgan, 8 Taulupe Faletau
Replacements: 16 Elliot Dee, 17 Nicky Smith, 18 Keiron Assiratti, 19 Freddie Thomas, 20 Aaron Wainwright, 21 Rhodri Williams, 22 Dan Edwards, 23 Blair Murray
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