Scotland are aiming to break an eight-year winless streak against Ireland this weekend, as the visitors look to keep their Grand Slam aspirations alive. We preview the clash in Edinburgh with our Scotland vs Ireland prediction.
Over the last decade, Scotland have gradually grown into a force to be reckoned with in the Six Nations. They’ve regularly claimed victories over Italy, caused headaches for England, managed to spoil France’s plans, and have even overcome their Warren Gatland-Wales hoodoo.
However, one team they’ve not quite managed to crack is Ireland, with their last win in this fixture coming in the opening round of 2017. Since that game, Scotland have won exactly half of their 40 matches, beating every other Six Nations side on at least three occasions.
Scotland got off to a good start in this year’s Six Nations, winning their opening game of the tournament for the fifth year in a row. However, they’ve often found it difficult to back up a win in Round 1.
Overall, they have won their opening match of the Six Nations eight times, but have only managed to win their first two matches once. That achievement did come just two years ago, so there will be plenty of players in Gregor Townsend’s squad who can draw confidence from that.
Ireland, on the other hand, know all about backing up victories, having won 13 of their last 14 fixtures in the Men’s Six Nations (L1). Their solitary defeat did come in their most recent away game in the Championship (against England in Round 4 last year), so they will be keen to avoid making losing on the road a habit.
Strengths
Scotland and Ireland were formidable at the lineout in Round 1 and were the only teams to record a 100% success rate across the opening fixtures, with Ireland’s tally of 23 successful lineouts a record:
Using our Six Nations Stats Hub, we can see that Scotland and Ireland adopted different tactics when throwing into the lineout. Ireland favored a more conservative approach, with 78% of their lineouts going to the front – the highest rate of any team in Round 1. On the other hand, Scotland were less predictable, opting for the front with just 38% of their throws. It’ll be interesting to see whether these tactics shift when the teams face off on Sunday.
Scotland dominated the ball in their opening game against Italy, with their 58% possession rate a round-high last weekend. Ireland dominated field position, enjoying 58% of the territory against England – also the most in Round 1.
Weaknesses
Ireland will hope to improve on the defensive side of their game this weekend, having recorded the lowest tackle success rate of any nation in Round 1 (82%). Perhaps even more worrying is that 39% of their missed tackles led to a line break or a try, with only England (50%) faring worse in that regard.
However, Scotland will need to improve their impact in attack against Simon Easterby’s men. Against Italy, they managed to ‘win’ the collision on just 16% of their carries, the lowest dominant carry rate of any team in the opening round of fixtures.
As a result, their gainline success rate sat at just 52%, with only Wales – who were hammered in Saint-Denis on Friday night – recording a lower rate.
Fantasy Picks
After an opening-round hat-trick, it’s hard to look past Huw Jones as a Scotland pick. His trio of tries took him to 15 for the Championship overall, and he’s just one away from going level with Stuart Hogg as his country’s top try scorer in the tournament.
Jones has good recent form in this fixture too, scoring in each of his last three Six Nations matches against Ireland. With prolific wingers Darcy Graham and Duhan van der Merwe yet to score against Ireland in the Championship, Jones might be the best option in the Scottish back line
For Ireland, James Lowe is always a safe pick. Like Jones, he recorded a hat-trick of his own in Round 1, registering three try assists against England. However, the return of hooker Dan Sheehan makes him a strong contender for the number two jersey.
He made a huge impact off the bench in Round 1 and ultimately secured the try bonus point for his side. That score was his ninth try in the Men’s Six Nations, the joint most of any forward in the tournament’s history.
Sheehan has faced Scotland four times, scoring a try in three of those encounters. The only time he failed to cross the try line came in the 2023 Six Nations, when he was forced off after just 18 minutes in a chaotic match that saw Ireland finish with three props in the front row.
Sheehan’s three tries against Scotland are his joint most against any nation he’s faced, alongside England – will he add to his tally again off the bench in Round 2?
Scotland vs Ireland Prediction
According to the Opta supercomputer, Ireland are favourites to beat Scotland at Murrayfield, given a 69.1% chance of winning. Scotland’s predicted chance sits at 30.2%.
The Opta supercomputer believes Ireland will win by an 11-point margin, scoring 28 points to Scotland’s 17.
Scotland vs Ireland Lineups
Scotland
15 Blair Kinghorn, 14 Darcy Graham, 13 Huw Jones, 12 Tom Jordan, 11 Duhan van der Merwe, 10 Finn Russell, 9 Ben White, 1 Rory Sutherland, 2 Dave Cherry, 3 Zander Fagerson, 4 Jonny Gray, 5 Grant Gilchrist, 6 Matt Fagerson, 7 Rory Darge, 8 Jack Dempsey
Replacements: 16 Ewan Ashman, 17 Pierre Schoeman, 18 Will Hurd, 19 Sam Skinner, 20 Gregor Brown, 21 Jamie Ritchie, 22 Jamie Dobie, 23 Stafford McDowall
Ireland
15 Hugo Keenan, 14 Mack Hansen, 13 Robbie Henshaw, 12 Bundee Aki, 11 James Lowe, 10 Sam Prendergast, 9 Jamison Gibson-Park, 8 Caelan Doris (c), 7 Josh van der Flier, 6 Peter O’Mahony, 5 Tadhg Beirne, 4 James Ryan, 3 Finlay Bealham, 2 Rónan Kelleher, 1 Andrew Porter
Replacements: 16 Dan Sheehan, 17 Cian Healy, 18 Thomas Clarkson, 19 Ryan Baird, 20 Jack Conan, 21 Conor Murray, 22 Jack Crowley, 23 Garry Ringrose
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