Following the money: UFC 312 betting line movements tracker | du Plessis vs. Strickland 2

UFC 312 is this weekend (Sat., Feb. 8, 2025) at the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is Dricus du Plessis versus Sean Strickland (public enemy number one in Australia) for the UFC Middleweight title.

UFC 312’s co-main event is Zhang Weili vs. Tatiana Suarez for the UFC Strawweight title.

The remainder of the card is a mix of Antipodean faves, Contender Series products and Road to UFC winners.

The main card is rounded out by Justin Tafa vs. Talisson Teixeira, Jimmy Crute vs. Rodolfo Bellato and Jake Matthews vs. Francisco Prado (couldn’t they have gotten Carlos Prates into this slot?)

The “Prelims” include Wang Cong vs. Bruna Brasil, Jack Jenkins vs. Gabriel Santos and Kody Steele vs. Rongzhu.

I’ve been watching the lines (see them here) for all the fights on UFC 312 and tracking the changes to see which fighters the betting public are siding with. Below you’ll find all the line movement info since the odds were released (per Best Fight Odds).

UFC 312 PPV Main Card Line Movement Tracker

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Dricus du Plessis (-209 -19.9%) vs. Sean Strickland (+171 +22.5%)

Our UFC 312 main event has a very interesting betting line. As things stand Dricus du Plessis is a comfortable favorite over Sean Strickland and his favorite status is growing by the minute.

Du Plessis opened as a slight favorite at -130 odds but, as you can see, that has shrunk down to -209. Sean Strickland’s line has gone in the opposite direction, with him opening at +130.

The public have a pretty good track record with Du Plessis. When he fought Israel Adesanya Vegas had him as a +144 dog. Betters jumped all over that and shrunk that line down to +100 at close. Du Plessis would go on to stop Adesanya and defend his title for the first time.

The public were right in the first match-up between Du Plessis and Strickland, too. Vegas had him as the +130 underdog in that fight and then public money took him all the way to -108. Those betters would have been delighted to see the South African then take the narrow split decision over the American.

In that first fight Strickland opened as a -163 favorite, but closed at -103.

The public were wrong on Strickland versus Adesanya, though. He opened at +300 and blew up to +540 before stunning Adesanya (and the vast majority of us onlookers) to win the UFC title.

Du Plessis has been often overlooked by Vegas, in both the examples above, and in his win over Robert Whittaker. However, lately the public have been pushing back on that, seizing on the long odds bookies are setting for StillKnocks.

Will the public be proved right again? Or will Vegas’ initial reaction to hedge against the champ be proved right?

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Zhang Weili (-104 +26%) vs. Tatiana Suarez (-116 -46.7%)

Tatiana Suarez’s betting line has moved more than any other line I’ve seen since I started tracking these things almost a year ago. She opened at +172 and that has shrunk all the way to -116, putting her in a pick ‘em with the reigning UFC Strawweight champion Zhang Weili. To make this a pick ‘em Zhang’s line has also come in from her opening odds of -225.

If you got Suarez at plus money, lucky you! I think she’s the favorite in this match-up, regardless of her lack of activity.

Vegas seemed to be really skeptical of her title chances, though. Zhang’s opening line of -225 is shorter than what she opened as when she Carla Esparza (-150) and when she rematched Joanna Jedrzejczyk (-150). She would close as -385 in that Esparza fight.

I’m a little baffled in how Vegas could have favored Esparza in this match-up more than Suarez, unless the oddsmakers are really hesitant due to her injury history.

Suarez’s line is still climbing at this time of writing. So the public clearly doesn’t have those kinds of reservations. She might be a slight favorite in this match-up by closing time.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Justin Tafa (+127 +0.9%) vs. Talisson Teixeira (-154 +0.8%)

These lines are pretty close to where they started, but there was a blip of activity on February 4th. At that time Tafa’s odds shortened to +116. They stayed around there until starting to creep back up today.

Vegas got Tafa’s last fight right. The public did not. He opened as a +215 underdog against Karl Williams. But money on Tafa took that down to +175. Tafa would then get taken down and laid on for three rounds.

When Tafa’s line dropped, Teixeira’s odds peaked at -140. I wish I could have got those, I think the Brazilian (with a nine inch reach advantage) is going to stop Tafa on Saturday.

Photo by Steve Marcus/Getty Images

Jimmy Crute (+131 +5.6%) vs. Rodolfo Bellato (-159 -2.9%)

Not much change in this line, too. Jimmy Crute, who is in desperate need of a win, opened as the slight underdog and those odds have lengthened just a little. Rodolfo Bellato’s line has gone the other way.

I think this is a case of the public fading Crute. I doubt there are many out there who have circled Bellato’s name as someone special and someone who is always worth putting their money down on.

Crute is 0-3-1 in his last four, but I think calling him washed is a little overblown. Jamahal Hill beats most guys in this division and the first loss in that run was a leg injury created by Anthony Smith. Before that loss he finished Modestas Bukauskas and Michal Oleksiejczuk.

So if you’re buying Bellato because you think Crute is done, then buyer beware.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

Jake Matthews (-235 -1.3%) vs. Francisco Prado (+189 +5.9%)

There’s been very little movement on this line. The public seem very content with Jake Matthews as a moderate favorite on his home turf.

The public are perfect on Francisco Prado in his three fight UFC career to date. He went from +164 to +275 before losing to Daniel Zellhuber. He went from -150 to -110 before knocking out Ottman Azaitar. And he went from +210 to +250 before dropping a decision to Jamie Mullarkey in his promotional debut.

UFC 312 Late ‘Prelims’ Line Movement

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Jack Jenkins (+182 +11.3%) vs. Gabriel Santos (-225 -6.6%)

Jack Jenkins’ line has grown a little since he was announced as a slight underdog. He’s a fun fighter, with a heck of a calf kick. But I think he’s overmatched against Gabriel Santos here. Santos looked spectacular, in all facets of the game, in beating Yizha last time out.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Tom Nolan (+104 -6.9%) vs. Viacheslav Borshchev (-126 +6.3%)

Not much movement on this fight either. This is one of the more sane betting lines Tom Nolan has seen in his UFC career. He closed as a -1115 favorite in his last fight, against Alex Reyes. Reyes then took Nolan to a decision. Before that Nolan was a -480 favorite against Victor Martinez. He was rocked early in that fight before roaring back for a TKO. And he was a -357 favorite against Nikolas Motta before that. He lost that fight via KO.

If Nolan struggles when he’s a massive favorite, how is he going to look as a slight dog?

Photo by Ben Roberts Photo/Getty Images

Wang Cong (-406 -2.6%) vs. Bruna Brasil (+310 +9.8%)

I don’t know if I’m crazy or if the world is crazy. I love Bruna Brasil in this fight. We just saw her take apart Molly McCann, who fights like Wang Cong. And we just saw Wang get stopped by Gabriella Fernandes, who fights like Bruna Brasil.

Brasil opened as a +175 underdog against McCann, at UFC London, and closed at +280.

She opened at +270 for this fight. The public seemingly think Wang is going to get her groove back in this fight and prove that her KO over Victoria Leonardo (who went 1-4 in UFC, all losses via TKO/KO) was no fluke.

UFC 312 Early‘Prelims’ Line Movement

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Aleksandre Topuria (-364 +4.1%) vs. Colby Thicknesse (+280 -5.3%)

I don’t know why Aleksandre Topuria deserves so much love from the oddsmakers, unless they think fighting skill is genetic. Topuria opened at -450 and the public have rebelled a little about that, bringing him down to -364. Short notice opponent Colby Thicknesse opened at +300 for his UFC debut.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Jonathan Micallef (+196 +17.9%) vs. Kevin Jousset (-243 -10.3%)

Jonathan Micallef’s line is one of the bigger movers on the card. He’s coming right off Contender Series and the public seem to think the more battle-tested Kevin Jousset will be too much for him. Micallef opened at +143 for this one, with Jousset at -180.

Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC

Rongzhu (+202 +2.3%) vs. Kody Steele (-253 -2%)

These lines are virtually identical from when they started out. Kody Steele, a legit BJJ blackbelt with power in his hands, remains the decent sized favorite over Rongzhu.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

Quillan Salkilld (-659 -8%) vs. Anshul Jubli (+464 +25.5%)

Quillan Salkilld opened as one of the biggest favorites on the card. That’s not moved much. Anshul Jubli’s underdog line has grown from +320 to +464, though. That’s probably due to the public’s last memory of Jubli was being laid out by Mike Breeden (Jubli opened as a -400 favorite for that fight).

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC 312 Biggest Line Movements

TLDR: Here are the biggest line movements at UFC 312:

• Tatiana Suarez: From +172 underdog to -116 pick ‘em (-46.7 percent) (B)
• Zhang Weili: From -225 underdog to -104 pick ‘em (+26 percent) (F)
• Anshul Jubli: From +320 underdog to +464 underdog (+25.5 percent) (A)
• Sean Strickland: From +110 underdog to +171 underdog (+22.5 percent) (A)
• Dricus du Plessis: From -130 favorite to -209 favorite (-19.9 percent) (E)
• Jonathan Micallef: From +143 underdog to +196 underdog (+17.9 percent) (A)

Since I’ve been tracking line movements on UFC PPVs, a few early trends have started to develop.

A: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then lengthened are 5-24.

B: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, enough to give them minus odds, are 8-7.

C: Fighters who opened with plus odds and whose odds have then shortened, yet they remain at plus odds, are 1-4.

D: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, enough to give them plus odds, are 3-4.

E: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have shortened are 2-1.

F: Fighters who opened with minus odds and whose odds have lengthened, though they remain at minus odds are 0-0.

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC

UFC 312 Best Underdogs Bets

I really like Bruna Brasil on this card. Her improvements since joining the Fighting Nerds are very noticeable and she’s done a ton more in the Octagon than Wang Cong has to date. I also think Colby Thicknesse is worth a look. He’s local, natural at the weight class and he’s been active over the last two years. You can’t say any of that about Aleksandre Topuria.

Enough about me, though, which of these underdogs do you like the most?

LIVE! Watch UFC 312 PPV On ESPN+ Here!

MIDDLEWEIGHT REMATCH! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) continues its 2025 pay-per-view (PPV) schedule on Sat., Feb. 8, with a rematch between 185-pound kingpin, Dricus du Plessis, running it back against the man he lifted the belt off little more than one year ago, Sean Strickland, in the five-round main event. In UFC 312’s championship co-headliner from inside Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, women’s Strawweight roost-ruler, Zhang Weili, will defend her belt against undefeated (and oft-injured) 115-pound contender, Tatiana Suarez. UFC 312 will also feature a hard-hitting Heavyweight battle between Justin Tafa vs. Talisson Teixeira, alongside a Light Heavyweight showdown with Jimmy Crute facing Rodolfo Bellato, and so much more! UFC 312’s start time is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard) and 10 p.m. ET (PPV main card).

Don’t miss a single second of EPIC face-punching action!

Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 312 fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/Disney+/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 6 p.m. ET, before the main card start time at 10 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).

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