With the help of the AI-powered Opta supercomputer, we provide our UEFA Champions League match predictions for every game across 2024-25.
The Opta supercomputer will be with us every step of the way this season as the projection model works to provide you with data-backed predictions for all UEFA Champions League matches and season outcomes.
Real Madrid have won the most European Cup/Champions League titles (15), with nine of those coming in the UCL era since 1992. They’ll be looking to add yet another this season following their 2023-24 success in the final against Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium.
They are one of 24 teams remaining in the 2024-25 competition after the completion of the league phase, with the knockout phase play-off round next up.
Our AI-powered Opta supercomputer proved rather prescient in 2023-24 and is continuing to make predictions for every fixture this season.
Read on as Opta Analyst provides its Champions League match predictions for 2024-25, and be sure to check back here ahead of every matchday for the latest UCL projections.
Knockout Phase Play-Off Predictions (Leg 1)
Two weeks after the conclusion of the new-look league phase in UEFA Champions League history, we’re back with the knockout phase play-off round.
While the top eight performing clubs in the league phase all made it through directly to the last 16 of the competition, the 16 clubs placed between ninth and 24th are having to battle it out over two legs to progress.
The first of those legs will be played across this midweek, with four games on Tuesday and another four on Wednesday.
The pick of the play-off ties has to be between the reigning Premier League champions Manchester City and last season’s UCL and La Liga winners Real Madrid.
Tuesday night’s first leg takes place in Manchester at the Etihad Stadium, with both clubs very familiar with one another. This will be just the fourth fixture in European Cup/Champions League history to played in four consecutive seasons, after Deportivo de La Coruña vs Juventus (4 from 2000-01 to 2003-04), Chelsea vs Liverpool (5 from 2004-05 to 2008-09) and Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid (4 from 2013-14 to 2016-17).
Madrid got the better of City over two legs last season, winning via a penalty shootout in their quarter-final tie after a 4-4 aggregate draw over the two legs. In fact, City have been eliminated from the UCL knockout stages by Real Madrid more often than by any other opponent (three times).
Their fortunes may change in 2024-25, however, especially if they can win the first leg at home. The Opta supercomputer saw them do this in 42.7% of pre-match simulations.
Tuesday’s action kicks off with an all-French tie, as the early match sees Brest host Paris Saint-Germain.
Brest were unfancied coming into their debut UCL season, but started well, going unbeaten in the opening four matchdays and losing just one of their opening six games. But playing against PSG has been a far from enjoyable experience for them in recent times – they are now winless in 30 successive games against them in all competitions (L22 D8). PSG’s last defeat against them came in January 1985 (3-1 in Ligue 1), and they’ve already beaten Brest on two occasions in 2024-25 (3-1 at home and 5-2 away in Ligue 1).
The Opta supercomputer is expecting more of the same, with PSG simulated to win their first leg match more often than any other side across the eight play-off ties this week (61.1%).
The remaining two ties on Tuesday night see Juventus host PSV and Sporting CP play against Borussia Dortmund in Lisbon, with both home teams favoured to pick up a first-leg advantage. The supercomputer saw Juventus win just under half (49.9%) of it’s 10,000 pre-game sims, while Sporting prevailed in 58.0% of simulations ahead of kick-off.
While Tuesday sees the Opta supercomputer expecting the majority of the joy for the home sides, Wednesday’s predictions are the opposite, with three of the four away teams predicted to win their first-leg ties on the road.
Atalanta (45.3% versus Club Brugge), Milan (41.8% versus Feyenoord) and Bayern Munich (48.2% versus Celtic) are all favourites with the supercomputer to return home with victory ahead of the second leg.
Bayern are six-time winners (three in the European Cup era, three in the Champions League) and Celtic don’t historically do well against former winners of the trophy. They have won just one of their last 21 games in European competition against teams who have won the European Cup/UCL, beating Feyenoord 2-1 in December 2023 (D4 L16).
The only home team tipped to prevail on Wednesday night are Monaco, who won 40.7% of the 10,000 pre-game supercomputer simulations against Portuguese giants Benfica.
They will have to do something they’ve never done before, however – beat Benfica. This will be the fourth meeting between these two sides in European competition, with Benfica unbeaten against their French counterparts in all three meetings, winning one and drawing one in the UCL group stage in 2014-15 and winning last time out, in Monaco in the league phase this season.
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