As the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League knockout stages get underway, who are the favourites to lift the trophy? The Opta supercomputer’s Champions League predictions break down each team’s chances of success.
After the novelty of a 36-team league stage, we are back to simpler things in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League.
Well, sort of. The knockout stages are upon us, but first we have the new knockout play-off round to contend with. As a reminder, that’s contested between those sides who finished ninth and 24th in the league phase. They’ll each play a two-legged tie for the chance to qualify for the last 16.
The Opta supercomputer has simulated the 2024-25 UCL knockout stages 10,000 times to analyse each side’s probability of reaching each stage in the competition, as well as projecting a potential winner.
Here are its latest Champions League predictions for remainder of the competition.
* Updated on 10 February
Qualified for the last 16: Liverpool, Arsenal, Inter, Barcelona, Atlético Madrid, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Lille
Qualified for the knockout play-off round: PSG, Real Madrid, Atalanta, Manchester City, Bayern Munich, Sporting CP, Milan, Juventus, Benfica, PSV, Monaco, Club Brugge, Borussia Dortmund, Feyenoord, Celtic, Brest
Eliminated: Dinamo Zagreb, Stuttgart, Shakhtar Donetsk, Bologna, Crvena zvezda, Sturm Graz, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Bull Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and the Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances. The competition in its entirety is simulated 10,000 times to produce a final projection for each side.
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