Can Pep Guardiola’s side strike first in the UEFA Champions League play-offs? We preview Tuesday’s first-leg showdown with our Manchester City vs Real Madrid prediction.
Man City vs Real Madrid Stats: The Key Insights
- Manchester City are favourites with the Opta supercomputer, winning the first leg in 42.7% of simulations.
- Erling Haaland hasn’t scored in any of his four appearances against Real Madrid in the Champions League. It’s the Norwegian’s worst run against any opponent without scoring.
- City have been eliminated from the Champions League knockout stages by Madrid more often than by any other opponent (3 times).
Manchester City and Real Madrid will renew their UEFA Champions League rivalry for a fourth straight season in Tuesday’s play-off round first leg at the Etihad Stadium.
The two European giants will face off across two legs for a right to reach the last 16, after City scraped to 22nd in UEFA’s new 36-team format and defending champions Madrid finished 11th.
Man City and Real Madrid have met each other in the last three Champions League seasons and this will be just the fourth European Cup/Champions League fixture in history to be played in four consecutive campaigns. Deportivo de La Coruña vs Juventus (4 between 2000-01 and 2003-04), Chelsea vs Liverpool (5 between 2004-05 and 2008-09) and Atlético Madrid v Real Madrid (4 between 2013-14 and 2016-17) were the others.
Last season, Madrid eliminated Pep Guardiola’s then-defending champions on penalties in the quarter-finals. That was despite City having over twice the number of shots as the Spanish giants over the two legs.
Carlo Ancelotti will fancy his side’s chances here, too, given Madrid have eliminated a Premier League club from the knockout stages in each of the last four Champions League seasons. They dispatched Liverpool in 2020-21; Chelsea, City, and Liverpool in 2021-22; Liverpool and Chelsea in 2022-23; and City in 2023-24.
Madrid’s 13 knockout-stage wins over English teams are bettered only by their 16 triumphs over German opposition.
Guardiola’s unconvincing defence will be fearful heading into Tuesday’s clash. Vinícius Júnior (two goals, three assists) and Rodrygo (four goals, one assist) both have five goal contributions against City in UEFA’s top competition. Only Lionel Messi (9) and Karim Benzema (7) have managed more.
The Brazilian pair’s impressive record comes without throwing Kylian Mbappé into the mix, who adds another dimension to Ancelotti’s star-studded attack. Madrid have certainly looked to use Mbappé’s pace, with only Bayern Munich (108) making more passes breaking the opposition’s defensive line than Madrid’s 87 in the 2024-25 competition.
Luka Modric and Rodrygo have played the most of those passes (11 each), while – unsurprisingly – Mbappé and Vinícius (14 each) have received the most in behind opposition defences. With no Kyle Walker to manage against Mbappé, it will be interesting to see whether Guardiola dares to stick with makeshift full-back Matheus Nunes.
However, City have their own player who has caused Madrid trouble in the past. Kevin De Bruyne has been directly involved in eight goals in eight Champions League appearances against them (four goals, four assists). The Belgian’s tally is the joint-most by any player in the competition’s history against Madrid alongside Giovane Élber.
By contrast, Erling Haaland hasn’t scored in any of his four appearances against Ancelotti’s men in the competition, attempting 13 unsuccessful shots across 359 minutes of action. Madrid remain the opponent he has played against most often for City without scoring, a record he’ll look to change on Tuesday.
Man City’s new signing Nico González was taken off injured in the first half of Saturday’s FA Cup win against Leyton Orient. He now joins Nathan Aké, Jérémy Doku, Oscar Bobb, and Ederson as a doubt for this game.
For Real Madrid, Lucas Vázquez suffered a new hamstring injury at the weekend and joins Antonio Rüdiger, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão and David Alaba on the injury list.
Man City vs Real Madrid Head-to-Head
City have been eliminated from the Champions League knockout stages by Madrid on three occasions, which is more often than by any other opponent, despite only losing three of their 12 meetings in the competition.
As well as beating them in last season’s quarter-finals, they also dispatched City with a memorable extra-time comeback win in 2021-22’s last eight.
There is still hope for City, though. This will be the 13th meeting between the two sides in the competition and Madrid have only won four of the first 12 (D5 L3). Los Blancos’ win percentage of 25% is their lowest against any opponent in European Cup/Champions League history.
The English champions were also 5-1 aggregate winners in the 2022-23 semi-finals.
Man City vs Real Madrid Prediction
The Opta supercomputer leant just towards a home win as Manchester City triumphed in 42.7% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Madrid still have a 33.0% chance of victory, while the draw – which would tee up a winner-takes-all decider at the Santiago Bernabéu – comes in at 24.3%.
Man City vs Real Madrid Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Man City vs Real Madrid Squads
Manchester City: Stefan Ortega, Ederson, Scott Carson, Ruben Dias, John Stones, Nathan Ake, Josko Gvardiol, Manuel Akanji, Joshua Wilson-Esbrand, Mateo Kovacic, Jack Grealish, Jeremy Doku, Rodri, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gündogan, Bernardo Silva, Savinho, Matheus Nunes, Phil Foden, James McAtee, Erling Haaland.
Head Coach: Pep Guardiola
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Andriy Lunin, Sergio Mestre, Dani Carvajal, Éder Militão, David Alaba, Jesús Vallejo, Fran García, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Lorenzo Aguado, Jude Bellingham, Eduardo Camavinga, Federico Valverde, Luka Modric, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Lucas Vázquez, Dani Ceballos, Brahim Díaz, Vinícius Júnior, Kylian Mbappé, Rodrygo, Endrick.
Head Coach: Carlo Ancelotti
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