Celtic are in the knockout stages of the UEFA Champions League for the first time since 2013. We preview their huge first-leg clash with our Celtic vs Bayern Munich prediction and preview.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich Stats: The Key Insights
- Bayern Munich are the favourites to win the first leg of this Champions League last 16 play-off tie, with Opta’s supercomputer handing them a 48.2% chance of victory.
- The Bundesliga giants are unbeaten in their last 13 matches against Scottish sides in major European competition (W9 D4).
- Celtic have won just one of their last 21 games in European competition against teams who have been European champions.
Celtic welcome European royalty to Celtic Park on Wednesday, as Bayern Munich visit Glasgow for the first leg of a play-off for the Champions League last 16.
This tie sees two league leaders go head-to-head. Celtic are 13 points clear of Rangers in the Scottish Premiership, while Vincent Kompany’s Bayern hold an eight-point advantage at the summit of the Bundesliga.
Translating their domestic dominance to the European stage has proved difficult for each, though. Celtic finished 21st in the league phase, three points and nine places behind Bayern.
The Bavarians scored 20 goals in the league phase, a tally that only Borussia Dortmund (22) and Barcelona (28) bettered, while excluding penalties, Kompany’s team generated chances worth 19.3 expected goals – the joint-most, along with Atalanta. No team had as many shots (185) or shots on target (69) than Bayern, though they were let down by their 10.8% conversion rate.
Bayern also struggled away from home. They won just one of their four matches on the road in the league phase. Should Kompany’s team lose on Wednesday, it would be the first time the German giants have lost four away matches in single campaign in major European competition.
Celtic, meanwhile, have won just one of their last 21 games in European competition against teams who have won the European Cup/Champions League, beating Feyenoord 2-1 in December 2023 (D4 L16).
Brendan Rodgers’ team conceded 14 times in the league phase, performing on track compared to their 13.38 xG against, but they shipped four goals against Aston Villa and seven, of course, against Dortmund, in a 7-1 loss.
Celtic do have plenty of threats Bayern must be wary of, though. Chief among them is Nicolas Kühn, who has created 10 chances following a carry (travelling 5+ metres with the ball) in the UEFA Champions League this season; the most of any player during the league phase.
But Bayern do have an incredible array of attackers to call upon themselves.
Harry Kane scored six goals in the league phase, while Michael Olise chipped in with four. Joshua Kimmich, meanwhile, was has been involved in more open-play shot-ending sequences than any other player in the Champions League this term (72). He is also the top-ranked player in 2024-25 for both passes completed (689) and line-breaking passes (136). The German is one of five midfielders to have featured in every minute of their team’s Champions League campaigns this season – another one is Celtic’s Callum McGregor.
Key to success in this match could well be if Bayern get their press right. They have forced the most high turnovers (120) of any team during the league phase of this season’s UEFA Champions League, while they turned 21 of those into shots (joint-most). Meanwhile, only five teams have suffered more high turnovers against them than Celtic (79) in the competition this term.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich Head-to-Head
Celtic have faced Bayern on four previous occasions in European competition, going winless across all four in the group stages of the Champions League (D1 L3).
Bayern are unbeaten in their last 13 matches against Scottish sides in major European competition (W9 D4), with their last such defeat coming against Hearts in the UEFA Cup in February 1989 (0-1).
Celtic have won just one of their 12 Champions League/European Cup clashes with German opposition (D3 L8), although that victory did come in the most recent one, against RB Leipzig in November.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich Prediction
The Opta supercomputer ran 10,000 data-led pre-match simulations, and Bayern came out on top in 48.2% of those. Celtic have a win probability of 27.7%, while the threat of a draw is 24.1%.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Celtic vs Bayern Munich Squads
Celtic: Kasper Schmeichel, Viljami Sinisalo, Scott Bain, Alistair Johnston, Greg Taylor, Liam Scales, Auston Trusty, Alex Valle, Maik Nawrocki, Cameron Carter-Vickers, Reo Hatate, Anthony Ralston, Luis Palma, Nicolas Kühn, Hyunjun, Luke McCowan, Arne Engels, Paulo Bernardo, Callum McGregor, James Forrest, Adam Idah, Adam Montgomery, Daizen Maeda,
Head Coach: Brendan Rodgers
Bayern Munich: Manuel Neuer, Daniel Peretz, Sven Ulreich, Dayot Upamecano, Kim Min-jae, Eric Dier, Hiroki Ito, Raphaël Guerreiro, Sacha Boey, Josip Stanišić, Leon Goretzka, Joshua Kimmich, Leroy Sané, João Palhinha, Michael Olise, Alphonso Davies, Konrad Laimer, Javier Fernández, Jamal Musiala, Serge Gnabry, Harry Kane, Kingsley Coman, Thomas Müller, Nestory Irankunda, Mathys Tel.
Head Coach: Vincent Kompany
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