We look ahead to Friday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Chelsea prediction and preview. Enzo Maresca’s men will be seeking revenge after their FA Cup defeat to the Seagulls last weekend.
Brighton vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer favours Chelsea to come away with the three points on Friday night, with the Blues winning 41.1% of pre-match simulations.
- Having failed to score in five of their first eight Premier League meetings with Chelsea, Brighton & Hove Albion have now scored in each of their last seven against them.
- Chelsea’s Robert Sánchez (five) and Ipswich Town’s Arijanet Muric (five) are the only players to commit more errors leading to a goal than Brighton goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen (four) in the Premier League so far this season.
Chelsea will travel to the Amex Stadium in the Premier League on Friday to take on Brighton as the sides clash for the second time in less than a week.
Last Saturday, it was Brighton who ran out victors in the FA Cup fourth round, coming from behind to claim a 2-1 victory thanks to goals from Georginio Rutter and Kaoru Mitoma.
It means Chelsea’s realistic hopes of silverware this season rely solely on the Europa Conference League. They currently sit fourth in the Premier League but lagging well behind leaders Liverpool.
On Friday, they’ll be looking to arrest a disappointing run of form that’s seen them win just three of their last 10 games in all competitions, leaving them in a real dogfight for the Champions League places with the likes of Manchester City and Newcastle looking to pounce on any further slip-ups.
Chelsea are currently on their longest winless streak away from home in the Premier League (two draws, two defeats), going four without victory since beating Tottenham 4-3 in early December; the Blues averaged 2.9 goals per game across their first eight away league games of the season but just 0.5 per game across this winless run.
They won’t fear falling behind on Friday, however. Only Liverpool have come from behind to avoid defeat in more Premier League games this season than Chelsea (seven times).
Meanwhile, Chelsea have won two of their last three league matches when behind at half-time (vs Tottenham and West Ham), as many as across their previous 31 when trailing at the break (four draws, 25 defeats).
Brighton’s cup victory last weekend will have been just the response Fabian Hürzeler will have wanted after his team’s previous league outing, a 7-0 away drubbing at the hands of Nottingham Forest.
It was Brighton’s heaviest league defeat since a 9-0 reverse to Middlesbrough in August 1958, and one that means they head into Matchday 25 in 10th.
Another defeat on Friday would mark the first time the Seagulls have lost three Premier League games in a row since March 2022.
Brighton are unbeaten in their last three Premier League home games against sides starting the day in the top four (two wins, one draw), though Hürzeler’s team are winless in five overall at the Amex Stadium since beating then second-placed Man City in November.
A concerning statistic for Brighton is their poor defensive record against Chelsea, who have kept just one clean sheet in 15 Premier League meetings.
In terms of team news, Pervis Estupiñán, Lewis Dunk and Mats Wieffer are all doubts, while Ferdi Kadioglu and James Milner aren’t expected back until at least March.
For Enzo Maresca, Nicolas Jackson, Benoit Badiashile, Roméo Lavia and Wesley Fofana are all out injured.
Brighton vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
This will be the second competitive meeting inside a week between these two sides in Brighton, with the home side running out 2-1 winners in the FA Cup last weekend. The Seagulls came from behind after an unfortunate Bart Verbruggen own goal early on.
After a five-game unbeaten run against Chelsea in the Premier League (two wins, three draws), Brighton have now lost each of their last three against them.
Chelsea have lost just one of their seven Premier League away games against Brighton (four victories, two draws), going down 4-1 in October 2022.
The last Premier League clash between the sides was back in September, when a stunning performance from Cole Palmer saw him score all four goals in a 4-2 victory.
The most goals a Chelsea player has scored against an opponent in a single Premier League campaign is five: Gianluca Vialli vs Barnsley (1997-98), Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink vs Tottenham (2001-02) and Diego Costa vs Swansea (2014-15). Palmer will be looking to match or even better the tally of those three players on Friday.
Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction
Chelsea are backed by the Opta supercomputer to return to winning ways on Friday, coming out victorious in 41.1% of pre-match simulations.
Brighton will be backed by their home crowd, and they repeat last weekend’s heroics with another victory 33.6% of the time. The teams share the spoils in 25.4% of simulations.
Chelsea are fourth, though the supercomputer rates them as fifth-favourites to finish in the top four with a 44.1% probability, behind Liverpool (100%), Arsenal (99.5%), reigning champions Man City (64.2%) and surprise packages Nottingham Forest (50.3%).
Brighton’s European hopes are considered slender, and the supercomputer is predicting them to finish in their current position of 10th, perhaps a little disappointing considering their above-par performances in recent campaigns.
Brighton vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Friday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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