The Big Ten is winning games and taking names this bowl season and is on the cusp of putting two teams in the College Football Playoff championship.
Though the first year of the 12-team playoff has provided some blowouts, the final four of Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State and Texas is a power-packed quartet of brands vitally important to the sport.
Ahead of the semifinals, here are previews and predictions for both games.
No. 7 Notre Dame (13-1) vs. No. 6 Penn State (13-2) | Thursday | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
The 20th matchup all-time between the Irish and Nittany Lions should be a dandy. The series is tied 9-9-1 with Penn State winning nine of the last 14 meetings. Can either team’s running game get going? Both teams defended the run staunchly in the quarterfinals. Notre Dame limited Georgia to 66 yards, while Penn State held Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and Boise State to 108 yards.
Expect a hard-fought game with points at a premium as it’s anticipated the defenses will impose their will while the offenses attempt to establish the running game. Both teams deploy multiple running backs and Penn State’s duo of Kaytron Allen (204 yards in CFP) and Nick Singleton (177) has been electric in two playoff games.
Notre Dame’s safeties against Penn State star tight end Tyler Warren (98 receptions, 1,158 yards, eight touchdowns) is the matchup to watch. If the Irish can slow his production then it could be a difficult night for quarterback Drew Allar and the Penn State passing attack. Keep an eye on Notre Dame safety Adon Shuler. According to PFF, Shuler allows only 50% of targets to be caught in one-on-one coverage against tight ends.
“I think in a lot of ways, they are built similar to us,” said Penn State head coach James Franklin in a Saturday news conference. “You look at their turnover ratio numbers, you look at their explosive play defense in terms of defending and limiting explosive plays. You look at the middle eight, they are built in a lot of ways that I think we are in terms of emphasizing the statistics that matter.”
Franklin is correct: these two programs are built similarly. It should lead to a fantastic semifinal game to watch at the Orange Bowl.
Prediction: Notre Dame, 24-17.
No. 8 Ohio State (12-2) vs. No. 5 Texas (13-2)| Friday | 7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Texas is back in the Cotton Bowl, which is a slice of old-time college football. The Longhorns are making their 23rd appearance in the Cotton Bowl Classic, but their first since 2003.
In their way is an Ohio State team that is out for blood — destroying everything in its path in what some have called a championship or bust season. Grab the popcorn because this one is going to be good.
While Texas has survived a challenge from No. 12 Clemson and eked out an overtime thriller against No. 4 Arizona State, Ohio State crushed No. 8 Tennessee and No. 1 Oregon.
Both teams boast talent all over the field, but the matchup to watch is Ohio State’s passing attack against Texas’ secondary. OSU freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been unstoppable in the CFP. Through two games he has 13 catches, 290 yards and four touchdowns. Key in on him? Be prepared for Emeka Egbuka who is projected to go in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Texas’ secondary is one of the best in the country though, allowing an opponent passer rating of just 59.8 this season.
That’s plenty of pressure for the Longhorns, and quarterback Quinn Ewers will need to play his best game of the season for Texas to advance.
Right now, it looks like nothing can stop Ohio State.
Prediction: Ohio State, 35-21.
