André Onana’s first few months at Manchester United were error-laden. However, he’s since become a dependable figure between the posts.
This time last year, it was difficult to make the case that Erik ten Hag hadn’t made a mistake by allowing David de Gea to leave and replacing him with André Onana.
Sure, even at his worst, Onana was leagues ahead of De Gea in terms of his ability with the ball at his feet. But that can only get you so far, and there was a growing argument that any gains in that respect were being wholly undermined by the Cameroonian’s shot-stopping (or lack of).
It certainly didn’t help matters that United became famously porous in Ten Hag’s second season at the helm. Their midfield was cavernous, with practically any team easily able to exploit them by running straight through the centre, and that contributed to them facing the second-most shots of all teams in the Premier League last term.
United fans had been warned that Onana would take risks and his style required getting used to, but the minimum expectation was for the basics of goalkeeping to still be done well.
Their 3-3 UEFA Champions League draw with Galatasaray on 29 November 2023 showed just how costly sub-par goalkeeping could be. United were 2-0 and then 3-1 up but ultimately only left Istanbul with a point, as Onana dealt poorly with two Hakim Ziyech free-kicks; one he watched bobble right past him, the second he fumbled into his own net.
By this point, “another Onana error” was becoming a frequently used phrase. Despite his United career only being a few months old at the time, his catalogue of mistakes was already beginning to look pretty hefty.
He allowed a Mathias Jensen effort to squirm under him against Brentford in the game that required two late Scott McTominay goals to secure a 2-1 win; in the home defeat to Galatasaray he played a hospital pass to Casemiro that led to the Brazilian’s red card and a penalty; he let a feeble Leroy Sané effort straight through him in the 4-3 loss at Bayern Munich; and on his Premier League debut against Wolves, Onana somehow avoided conceding a penalty despite clattering Sasa Kalajdzic when failing to collect a cross.
Although it’s fair to say Ten Hag’s tactics did leave Onana somewhat exposed, facing far more shots than ever before in his career, the idea that he was a liability grew as a narrative. The noise was particularly loud after that collapse in Istanbul because it left United on the brink of Champions League elimination, which would be confirmed by a 1-0 home defeat to Bayern a couple of weeks later.
Little sympathy was openly directed Onana’s way either. The only people who appeared to console him on the pitch at full-time were his United understudy, Altay Bayindir, Galatasaray goalkeeper Fernando Muslera and Ziyech, a former Ajax teammate.
But in the following 12 months, Onana has probably been United’s most-improved player.
First and foremost, the glaring and costly errors have reduced. Between the start of last season and the beginning of December 2023, Onana committed four errors leading to shots in all competitions (and that wouldn’t even technically include the horrible pass to Casemiro against Galatasaray) across 1,800 minutes of football. Since then, he’s played 4,560 minutes and only deemed to have committed three errors that have led to a shot.
So, since that draw with Galatasaray, Onana has averaged one error leading to a shot for every 1,530 minutes played; only six Premier League goalkeepers (minimum 1,000 mins played in all comps prior to Tuesday) over same period have done better in that respect, and Onana’s played considerably more football than all of them.
Despite the discourse last season around his errors, Onana still ended the 2023-24 season with a reasonably respectable (if not spectacular) output when it came to shot-stopping. While his 82 goals conceded (excluding own goals) was considerable, they were from shots worth 85.9 expected goals on target (xGOT) – this gave him a ‘goals prevented’ total of 2.9. Only seven Premier League goalkeepers (minimum 2,000 mins played in all comps) prevented more.
But there’s undeniably a feeling that Onana’s found another level this season, and that’s without even focusing on the side of his game he’s known to be proficient in – passing. His distribution hasn’t ever been a major concern beyond the riskiness, whereas fans would’ve been justified in criticism of his shot-stopping at times.
For instance, looking at only the 25 Premier League games he played from the start of December 2023 until the end of last season, Onana conceded more goals (excluding own goals) than his xGOT faced in 12 different matches – or 48% of his appearances.
In 2024-25, he’s only conceded more goals than his xGOT faced in two of 13 matches – or 15% of his appearances.
Unsurprisingly, then, this has contributed to him standing head and shoulders clear of everyone else in the Premier League with respect to being decisive between the posts.
Onana has let in 13 goals from 17.7 xGOT faced – that gives him a ‘goals prevented’ total of 4.7. Among goalkeepers to have played more than 270 minutes this term, former United man Dean Henderson (3.0) is the only other player to have prevented at least three goals according to the Opta model.
We can go a little deeper as well by looking at ‘goals prevented rate’, which tells us the number of goals the average goalkeeper would concede for every goal the player in question actually concedes; Onana’s goals prevented rate in the Premier League this season is 1.4, meaning the average goalkeeper would concede 40% more goals than him on current form. Among goalkeepers to play over 270 minutes this term, only Alisson (2.3) has a better record than Onana.
While clean sheets generally isn’t a great metric by which to measure goalkeeping performance, the fact Onana’s six this term is more than any other Premier League goalkeeper does lend the narrative of his resurgence a little more top-level supporting evidence at the very least.
Only Liverpool (eight) have conceded fewer Premier League goals this term than United (13), and a segment of the graphic below shows how Onana’s performances have been vital to that, rather than them simply being lucky or benefiting from poor finishing by opponents. The shaded area covers 2024-25 and outlines how United have generally, on a six-game rolling average, been conceding fewer goals than would be expected based on the chance quality of shots on target faced.
Explaining how Onana’s produced such a marked improvement is obviously difficult, though it’s possible that the answers lie away from football completely.
The 28-year-old spoke quite extensively earlier in the year about the challenges that came with his move to Old Trafford; everything was new, and while that may be a given when changing clubs, that doesn’t necessarily mean everyone can take it in their stride.
“It took me six months or seven months not to play good, just to feel good,” Onana told reporters in March. “It was a difficult time for me. Everything was new, it was difficult for me to feel at home because [of] so many reasons. Now I’m feeling good. The most important thing is to be set, to be happy, and then I will shine.”
In separate comments made prior to helping United win the FA Cup last season, Onana said he made a conscious decision to “stand up and fight” after that rocky start at the club – exactly what he changed isn’t immediately clear, but all the evidence suggests he’s getting the intended results.
The performances and setup of the wider team shouldn’t be disregarded when looking at Onana’s improvement. That might sound like a slightly odd thing to say about a team who’ve underwhelmed and sacked their manager in October, but in fairness to Ten Hag, United had been less open than they were last season even before he was dismissed.
Case in point, Onana has faced 10.9 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, a dramatic decline from 17.6 in 2023-24. As such, United’s opponents are getting fewer shots on target, and Onana himself is required to make fewer saves (2.7 per 90, down from 3.9).
It’s certainly not ridiculous to suggest a lighter in-game workload might have aided Onana’s decision making. He has more time to think about his positioning and to ready himself, thus potentially helping him to thrive despite the average xG value of United’s shots faced in the Premier League actually increasing from 0.11 to 0.14 this term.
We always knew Onana was composed, effective and supremely confident with the ball at his feet – but worries about his shot-stopping were understandable especially after those difficult early months at Old Trafford.
Sometimes you just need a little patience and an adaptation period. Onana is now excelling in an environment many others have crumbled in – signing him certainly wasn’t a mistake.
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