After 20 games, Southampton have the worst record of any Premier League team in history. It would still take a remarkably bad run for them to break Derby County’s record for the lowest points total in history but given their form, it’s not out of the question.
A season so bad that it can be used as an adjective, is Derby County’s infamous 11-point campaign in 2007-08 genuinely under threat? With six points and a -32 goal difference after 20 games – the worst record at this stage of a Premier League season in history – Southampton are having a right go.
For a team who haven’t won since early November, Saturday’s 5-0 home defeat to Brentford somehow marked a new low. From the first minute to the last, Southampton were second best in every department in a game that Match of the Day’s Gary Lineker described as “one of the most one-sided Premier League games I think I’ve ever seen.”
Only two teams this season – Liverpool vs Tottenham (+4.4) and Arsenal vs Leicester (+4.3) – have had a bigger positive difference between their expected goals for and against in a game than Brentford did at St Mary’s this weekend (+4.2).
It was the Bees’ highest ever xG registered in a Premier League game and their biggest win in the competition. And that’s from a team who, heading into the weekend, were winless away from home, picking up two points from a possible 27.
That heavy defeat means that after 20 games, Southampton have the worst record of any Premier League team in history.
That begs the dreaded question: can Southampton really go on to break Derby’s record-low points tally of 11 in 2007-08?
Well, at their current rate of just 0.3 points per game, they are on course to match it. Over the course of 38 games, picking up 0.3 PPG would net Southampton 11 points (11.4 to be precise, but it feels sensible to round down given the circumstances).
A comparison between each side’s first 20 games shows that Southampton are where they belong. On a per-game basis, Saints are actually averaging fewer shots, getting fewer of them on target and facing more shots and shots on target than Derby.
It’s worth reiterating just how apocalyptically bad Derby’s form was over the course of 2007-08. Their only win of the season came against Newcastle in September. After that, they failed to win their remaining 32 games of the season (D7 L25) which is the longest winless run in Premier League history.
Just like Southampton have done, Derby also made a mid-season managerial change. Paul Jewell replaced Billy Davies in November 2007. Jewell then failed to win any of his 24 games with Derby – the most a manager has ever overseen at a club without winning in the Premier League. At least that’s one record that Juric, who’s lost his first three games, cannot beat this season, purely given that there aren’t enough games remaining.
Southampton have a rotten record after 20 games, yes. But they only need to pick up six points out of a remaining 54 to get past Derby’s tally. Surely that’s achievable.
Even Sunderland in 2005-06, who had six points after 20 games, ‘recovered’ to take nine points from their last 18 games to ultimately finish on 15. And they had a winless run of 14 games in among that, too.
The ‘good’ news is that it would take something truly special from here for Southampton to trouble the record. The bad news is that, given their form, it’s almost impossible to see where their next win is going to come from.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
