No way, you say? Well, a look at some of the advanced data and our historical TRACR might convince you that currently, the Lions rate as one of the NFL’s best since the 1991 season.
Dan Campbell and the Detroit Lions have executed a near-flawless 2024 campaign so far.
If not for two failed drives late in a Week 2 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Detroit would be the only undefeated team in the NFC and one of two in the NFL.
As it stands heading into Week 10, the Lions are at the top of the conference and NFC North at 7-1, riding a six-game winning streak and leading the NFL in a lot of categories – namely point differential at plus-110. According to our projection model, they have the NFC’s highest probability of reaching the Super Bowl at 20.8%.
They’ve accomplished all this with perhaps the most balanced and efficient approach in the NFL. Entering Week 10, Detroit is first in offensive scoring, tied for fifth in points allowed and boasts a top-flight special teams unit. The Lions rank in the top five in starting field position and field position allowed, haven’t missed a field goal all season (Jake Bates is 12 for 12) and rank first in average yards on punt and kickoff returns.
Put all that together and it’s easy to see why the Lions don’t just look like the best team in the NFL – you could argue that they are the best. They’re tied for second in overall EVE (Efficiency Versus Expected) and lead the NFL in TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Competition and Roster) — two advanced metrics that look at the Lions relative to the rest of the league.
The team’s TRACR is perhaps the most impressive element of their 2024 performance. That’s because it normalizes performance from league environmental factors that can either inflate or deflate its numbers, making it possible to compare teams across eras. It uses advanced metrics and other factors to calculate how many points per 10 drives better or worse teams are or were compared to the league-average club during a season, including the playoffs.
The Lions’ 16.17 mark is about three points higher than this year’s Baltimore Ravens, and currently ranks as the third highest among NFL teams since 1991. They’re just barely behind the 1996 Super Bowl-winning Green Bay Packers, who had the No. 1 offense and defense that year.
As a whole, the Lions look impenetrable from all angles. On offense, the running game ranks sixth in yards and first in touchdowns while quarterback Jared Goff leads the NFL in completion percentage (74.9%) and is tied for third in well-thrown percentage (87.9%). On defense, the team is 11th in success rate allowed and third in pressure rate. And we’ve already mentioned Detroit’s elite special teams.
Let’s break it down a little further.
Good Run Game and Efficient Passing
Everything starts with the ground game, which ranks among the best in the NFL in production and is No. 1 in success rate.
The offensive line provides the openings with the fourth-best run-block win rate and three offensive line starters have 1-on-1 run-blocking win rates above 75% and ELO scores above 1,500. But it’s Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery’s differing abilities that open everything up.
Gibbs ranks third in total EVE among running backs, first in yards per carry (6.37) and yards before contact (4.52), and second in yards per carry when there’s a run disruption (4.34). Montgomery, meanwhile, ranks ninth in yards after contact (2.23) and fifth in missed tackles forced per touch (.300) among running backs with at least 50 carries.
So depending on the type of play the Lions need from their running backs, they have two different options who can execute.
This, in turn, gives Goff a much easier plate to handle. That’s important considering the Lions rank 29th in pass-blocking win rate and have allowed the 11th-highest sack percentage in the NFL at 7.6%. Goff only ranks 14th in passing yards per game, but he isn’t needed to blow the top of defenses – he’s simply delivering on the plays he’s called upon even in the face of a below-average unit in front of him.
Offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, who figures to be a hot candidate for a head coaching job in the near future, has done a good job scheming well-designed plays to capitalize on situations and mitigate potential mistakes.
The Lions have only turned the ball over once since Week 4 and only five times all season. Goff alone has just four interceptions on the year and has 11 TDs, no picks and an 83.8 completion percentage since Week 3. Overall, Goff is the only player in the NFL with both an adjusted completion percentage (no throwaways or spikes) over 76% (76.7%) and an open target percentage over 80% (81.6%).
The passing game ranks fifth in success rate, and in the red zone, Goff has the fourth-best passer rating in the league and the team has racked up the fifth-most points there.
So while the Lions aren’t boasting top-two passing numbers like in 2023, this version of Johnson’s offense is actually better than 2024 because of how efficient it is on the ground, through the air and in moments of need.
A Revamped Defense
Before Aidan Hutchinson’s season-ending injury, the Lions had great defensive line play with a not-so-great secondary. They allowed the seventh-highest pass success rate and the sixth-lowest run success rate from Weeks 1-4 with a healthy Hutchinson.
But when he suffered a season-ending leg injury in Week 6, the Lions completely altered their defense and became one of the better secondaries in the NFL. The Lions have allowed the second-worst pass success rate since Week 6.
The secondary play of safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph, along with cornerback Carlton Davis, played a big role in this rise. Branch leads the NFL with 11 defended passes and ranks fourth in open-allowed rate (min. 100 pass-coverage snaps) and 12h in burn-allowed percentage allowed despite being tied for third in targets.
Joseph isn’t far behind in defended passes with seven. And among cornerbacks with at least 200 pass coverage snaps, Davis ranks 10th in defended passes and ninth in burn-allowed percentage.
This elite play keeps the defensive line always engaged despite the loss of Hutchinson, and the Lions will get even more support for the rest of the season with the acquisition of edge rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Cleveland Browns. The Lions ranked third in pass-rush win rate when Hutchinson was healthy, but they dropped to 21st without him.
Now if you add in Smith’s numbers in 2024, the Lions suddenly pop back up into the top 10.
An Adaptable Identity
The Lions know what they are: A good running team that doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and can hit an opponent from all sides. But just being efficient isn’t enough to deliver wins. Detroit needed to be malleable in its approach all year.
In the first three weeks of the season, the Lions had to stave off second-half comebacks in early wins over the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals. The Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers derived from the offense’s inability to establish the run and score in the red zone. But they didn’t allow those issues to become a problem and found their perfect blend of a punishing run game, quality passing game and stout defense.
Perhaps the biggest encapsulations of this fluid strategy came in the Lions’ two biggest blowout wins this year: A Week 6 drubbing of the Dallas Cowboys and a Week 8 dismantling of the Tennessee Titans. Detroit won both games by 38 points but did so in completely different ways.
Against the Cowboys, the Lions put up nearly 500 yards of total offense and allowed just 251 total yards. But against the Titans, they needed just 225 total yards (including just 61 passing yards) to win 52-14 despite allowing more than 400 yards. The key similarities were capitalizing on turnovers and field position. Detroit scored 13 points off five Dallas turnovers and 21 points off four by Tennessee.
Blowouts aren’t normally the best examples of a team’s identity, but it’s striking that Detroit pulled off both victories doing different things well.
Though the data might say they’re close, the 2024 Lions are by no means a perfect team and are not head-and-shoulders above a team like the Kansas City Chiefs. However, Detroit does rank in the top three in both offensive and defensive TRACR with effective special teams.
At the very least, the Lions have proven to be a tough matchup for any opponent and appear to be the team to beat in the typically competitive NFC.
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