The Big 12’s top contenders would each need to lose — while either the Black Knights or Green Wave run the table — for the conference to finish with the sixth-highest-ranked conference champion.
Based on each’s schedule, it’s possible.
BYU is a three-point underdog at No. 21 Arizona State (8-2, 5-2 in Big 12) this Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN). Per ESPN Analytics’ Matchup Predictor, the Sun Devils have a 55.9 percent chance of winning.
Arizona State ends the season on the road against in-state rival Arizona (4-6, 2-5 in Big 12), which has won the past two games in the series and has arguably the country’s best wide receiver, Tetairoa McMillan. The Wildcats have had a disappointing first season in the Big 12, but all bets are off in rivalry games.
No. 16 Colorado (8-2, 6-1 in Big 12) plays at Kansas (4-6, 3-4 in Big 12) on Saturday. The Jayhawks are much better than their record indicates, with five losses coming by six points or less. They’ve also won two in a row, beating BYU and No. 22 Iowa State (8-2, 5-2 in Big 12).
Army could make things interesting even without BYU or Colorado slipping.
It plays No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1) on Saturday (7 p.m., NBC); pulling off a massive upset as a 14.5-point underdog would give it a compelling case as one of the five best conference champions if it enters Selection Sunday at 13-0.
The debate between a potential two-loss Big 12 champion and Tulane might be trickier to settle. The Green Wave lost a controversial Week 2 game to Kansas State (7-3, 4-3 in Big 12), 34-27, after a dubious offensive pass interference call waved off a potential tying fourth-quarter touchdown.
But Tulane outgained Kansas State 491-396 and limited the Wildcats to 2-of-10 on third downs, more than holding its own against the Big 12 competition.
Per ESPN’s Football Power Index, Colorado (43.3 percent) is the favorite to win the Big 12 but only has a 33.6 percent chance of reaching the playoff. Tulane, the favorite in the AAC, has a 25 percent chance.
The gap between the Big 12 and AAC in the latest CFP rankings shrunk. It might only take a few more results for the Big 12 to find itself without a seat at the CFP table.
