We look ahead to Sunday’s huge Premier League clash at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Man City prediction and preview. Will Pep Guardiola’s men strike a blow to Mikel Arteta’s title hopes?
Arsenal vs Man City Stats: The Key Insights
- Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer’s favourites ahead of Sunday’s game at the Emirates Stadium, beating Manchester City (28.1%) in 46.2% of match simulations.
- City have lost just one of their last 40 Premier League matches played from January until the end of the campaign, losing 1-0 to Brentford on the final day of 2022-23.
- Erling Haaland has scored five goals in his last five Premier League appearances for Man City, two more than he managed in his previous 13 (three).
A few months ago, most fans would have had Sunday’s clash between Arsenal and Manchester City circled in the diary as a potential title decider, a clash between Mikel Arteta’s challengers and Pep Guardiola’s all-conquering champions.
However, a serious knee injury suffered by Rodri in September’s return fixture between the teams was the turning point in City’s season, with their title defence unravelling since that feisty 2-2 draw. Any hopes of retaining their crown look to be long gone, with a UEFA Champions League place surely the limit of their ambitions.
Arsenal, meanwhile, are clinging on in the title race. Entering Matchday 24 six points behind Liverpool having played an additional game, the Gunners have little – if any – room for error.
Arteta’s side battled to a 1-0 victory at Wolves last week despite seeing Myles Lewis-Skelly sent off late in the first half. João Gomes’ red card evened things up with 20 minutes to play, and Riccardo Calafiori netted the winner just four minutes later.
Since Arteta’s first Premier League game in charge of Arsenal, they have received more red cards than any other side (19). Despite this, they rank 23rd of the 27 teams to feature in that time for fouls per game (10.1).
Arsenal are now unbeaten in 13 Premier League matches (W8 D5) and have won the most points of any side from MD11 onwards (29). The Gunners have never had a longer unbeaten run under Arteta, last going 14 without defeat between August and December 2018, under Unai Emery.
Arsenal have lacked a cutting edge in attack with Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus sidelined, but their set-piece prowess has allowed them to churn out results. Their 12 goals (including two own goals) via set-pieces are the most of any team in the Premier League this season (excluding penalties).
City, however, have only conceded two such goals, the joint-fewest in the competition alongside Brentford. One of those was a Gabriel Magalhães header from a corner earlier this season, with five of the last 10 goals Arsenal have scored against City coming from corners.
As well as long-term absentees Jesus and Saka, Arsenal continue to be without right-back Ben White. However, Martin Ødegaard is available after illness kept him out last weekend.
Arsenal – who were already virtually assured of qualification for the Champions League’s last 16 – beat Girona 2-1 on Wednesday via a fine Ethan Nwaneri strike, while City must navigate the play-offs after fighting back to beat Club Brugge 3-1 on a nervy night at the Etihad Stadium.
City have turned something of a corner in the Premier League of late, though, going unbeaten in six (W4 D2). Only Newcastle United (15) have bettered their 14 points since Christmas Day, while City top the scoring charts in that time (18).
Guardiola’s men have only lost one of their last 40 Premier League matches played from January until the end of the campaign (W33 D6), losing 1-0 to Brentford on the final day of 2022-23 when the title was already sewn up. They are unbeaten in their last 23 such games across the last two campaigns (W19 D4), scoring 66 goals at an average of 2.9 per match.
After an early error from debutant Abdukodir Khusanov put them on the back foot, City looked back to something approaching their best in last week’s 3-1 win over Chelsea, with Erling Haaland and Phil Foden joining Josko Gvardiol on the scoresheet.
Haaland has scored five goals in his last five Premier League matches, two more than he managed in his previous 13 (three). He has exceeded his expected goals (xG) figures by 1.1 in his last five games (five goals from 3.9 xG), having underperformed by 5.2 in his previous 13 (three goals from 8.2 xG).
Foden, meanwhile, has finally found his feet after a slow start to the campaign. He scored more Premier League goals in January than any other player, netting six times from six shots on target.
He is the fifth player on record (2003-04 onwards) to score as many as six goals and net with each of his shots on target in a month, along with Jermain Defoe in March 2008, Dimitar Berbatov in December 2011, Sergio Agüero in August 2019 and Taiwo Awoniyi in May 2023 (all six).
Arsenal vs Man City Head-to-Head
Arsenal won this exact fixture 1-0 last season. They last won consecutive home league games against City between 2005-06 and 2008-09 (a run of four straight victories).
Having won 12 consecutive league games against Arsenal between 2017 and 2023, City are now winless in their last three against them (two draws, one loss).
The teams’ last meeting saw Arsenal penned back for long periods after Leandro Trossard was sent off.
John Stones scored a 98th-minute equaliser with City’s 28th shot of the second half, the joint-second highest by a team on record (from 2003-04) in a single half of Premier League football, only behind City’s 34 in their iconic late win over Queens Park Rangers to clinch the title in May 2012.
Arsenal vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for Sunday’s game, with a 46.2% chance of victory, while City won 28.1% of our pre-match simulations.
The chances of a third successive draw between these rivals, meanwhile, are rated at 25.7%.
In our 2024-25 season predictions, Arsenal are outsiders for the title, lifting the trophy in 8% of scenarios compared to Liverpool’s 91.7%.
There are still 0.3% of simulations in which City recover to successfully defend their crown, while they finish second in 9.3% of projections to Arsenal’s 77.5%. Third (42.4%) is deemed by far their most likely finishing position.
Arsenal vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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