We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League north London derby at the Emirates Stadium as Arsenal host Tottenham. Can the Gunners bounce back from a miserable week of cup action?
Arsenal vs Tottenham Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer makes Arsenal favourites for the north London derby, with a 64.7% chance of victory over Tottenham (16.9%).
- Tottenham have won just one of their last 31 Premier League away games against Arsenal and are winless in 13 since a 3-2 victory in November 2010.
- Each of Kai Havertz’s last 11 Premier League goals have been scored in London. The last Arsenal player to have a longer such run was Lukas Podolski (12 between December 2012 and April 2014).
Ahead of the second north London derby of the season, grumbles of discontent are audible among supporters of both Arsenal and Tottenham.
While Mikel Arteta’s Gunners have been steady enough in the Premier League, looking the likeliest team to capitalise if runaway leaders Liverpool slip up, back-to-back disappointments in the domestic cups have left them facing the prospect of a fifth trophyless season in a row.
Two goals down at the halfway stage of their EFL Cup semi-final tie against Newcastle United and out of the FA Cup after a penalty shootout defeat to Manchester United, Arsenal have come in for stern criticism in recent days.
While Arsenal boast the Premier League’s best defensive record in 2024-25 with 18 goals conceded, their shortcomings at the other end of the pitch have been well-documented.
Arsenal average 1.75 expected goals (xG) per Premier League game in 2024-25, down on their figures from 2023-24 (2.04) and 2022-23 (1.90). Being without Martin Ødegaard and Bukayo Saka for periods due to injuries has not helped their cause, but the problem in recent weeks has not been creating chances, but putting them away.
They dominated against Newcastle and Man Utd in last week’s cup contests, racking up 3.2 expected goals (xG) in each game but only scoring once to underperform their combined figures by 5.4. They did, though, have an extra man for a long period after Diogo Dalot’s red card in Sunday’s game, the figures for which will have also been slightly skewed by it going to extra-time.
Across those two matches, Kai Havertz attempted nine shots, all of them from inside the penalty area, totalling 1.91 xG. There were several glaring misses among those efforts, while he was also the only player to fail to convert in the shootout against United.
Havertz’s underlying figures in the Premier League this season do not make for terrible reading, with the former Chelsea man scoring seven times from 7.81 xG for a marginal underperformance. However, among all players to score at least five times in the competition this term, only Brennan Johnson, Antoine Semenyo and Morgan Rogers have hit the target with a lower proportion of their shots than Havertz (50%).
Havertz will likely lead the line again on Wednesday after fellow forward Gabriel Jesus was carried off on a stretcher against United. A word of warning for Spurs, though; each of Havertz’s last 11 Premier League goals have come in London. The last Arsenal player to have a longer such run was Lukas Podolski between December 2012 and April 2014 (12).
Tottenham, meanwhile, have their own issues. Ange Postecoglou’s men lead their EFL Cup semi-final tie against Liverpool and advanced in the FA Cup by beating Tamworth 3-0 after extra-time on Sunday, but they have won just one of their last eight league games to sit 12th.
The main criticism of Postecoglou since he arrived in England has centred on a refusal to tweak his principles in the name of results.
Those shouts have reached a fever pitch in recent weeks, with Tottenham only taking five points from their last eight Premier League games, their lone win in that span coming against bottom club Southampton. Saints (1) and Leicester City (4) are the only teams to take fewer points in that time.
While Tottenham did not impress against their non-league opponents last time out, might last week’s EFL Cup first-leg win over Liverpool have shown there is a different side to Ange-ball?
Spurs had just 39.9% possession in their 1-0 victory over the Reds, their fourth-lowest share in any game under Postecoglou. They played more long balls (49) and a higher proportion of their passes long (11.7%) against Liverpool than in any other game this season, with Lucas Bergvall’s winner coming after one such pass from Pedro Porro.
Tottenham still looked to press high, but their insistence on playing out from the back was tempered by a realisation that Liverpool are exceptional in the counter-press. A similar approach could pay dividends on Wednesday, particularly with defenders Destiny Udogie, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven and Ben Davies still sidelined.
Only Southampton (36) and Aston Villa (23) have made more errors leading to shots in the Premier League than Spurs (21) this season, so a change in the way they build up against the league’s best teams has been overdue.
Tottenham have, though, scored the most goals as a result of opposition errors (11) in the Premier League this term, so do not expect them to dial down the press.
As a team, Spurs have applied more pressures in the final third than any other side in the Premier League this campaign (1,321). Striker Dominic Solanke leads the way among all players, with his total of 386 over 100 more than the next highest (Erling Haaland, 275).
With Arsenal desperate to rediscover their shooting boots and Tottenham sure to bring the pressure, an entertaining derby is expected under the floodlights.
Arsenal vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won six of their last eight league games against Spurs (D1 L1) and are looking to win three in a row against them for the first time since January 1989 (a run of five).
Indeed, following their 1-0 away win in September, Arsenal could complete the Premier League double over Tottenham for the fifth time. Only in 2013-14, however, have they done so without conceding in either match.
Tottenham have only won one of their last 31 away Premier League games against Arsenal, drawing 12 and losing 18, while they are also winless in 13 trips to the Emirates since a 3-2 victory in November 2010.
Arsenal vs Tottenham Prediction
As the only team yet to lose a home Premier League game this season, Arsenal enter this match as heavy favourites.
Of 10,000 match simulations conducted by the Opta supercomputer, Arsenal won 64.7% and were only beaten in 16.9%, with the remaining 18.4% finishing all square.
In our season predictions, Arsenal are given just a 9.8% chance of winning the title, with Liverpool (89.6%) overwhelming favourites. Spurs only make the top four in 0.3% of simulations, with 11th (16.5%) their most common finishing position.
Arsenal vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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