We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Man City prediction and preview. Pep Guardiola’s men will look to end their horrendous form in what could prove a tricky away fixture.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City Stats: The Key Insights
- Despite their terrible form, the Opta supercomputer still has Manchester City as favourites to win this one, doing so in 43.7% of simulations.
- Josko Gvardiol has scored more goals than any other defender in the Premier League this season, while his four goals are the second most of any Man City player after Erling Haaland (13).
- Phil Foden has had more shots without scoring than any other player in the Premier League this season (24).
Manchester City will bid to get back to winning ways when they visit Aston Villa at Villa Park in the Premier League on Saturday.
City suffered a stunning 2-1 defeat at home to rivals Manchester United last weekend as a Bruno Fernandes penalty and a 90th-minute Amad Diallo winner condemned Pep Guardiola’s men to yet another loss.
The Citizens’ chances of winning a fifth consecutive Premier League title look all but over, already nine points behind leaders Liverpool having played a game more than Arne Slot’s side.
The Manchester derby defeat means City have lost five of their last seven Premier League games, as many as they had in their previous 67 combined. They last lost more in a single league campaign in the 2020-21 season (six).
Their form hasn’t been much better in the cup competitions either, first crashing out of the EFL Cup to Tottenham while also failing to win any of their last three Champions League outings.
City have been defeated in eight of their last 11 matches in all competitions, the same number as they had lost in their previous 106 games.
Even when they’ve been ahead, City haven’t been as sure a thing to win, or even not lose, as they have in their period of dominance since Guardiola arrived at the Etihad Stadium in 2016.
The Man Utd loss was the second time in three games in which they have led at half-time but ended up losing, having only done so twice in their previous 102 such games.
This weekend could also prove difficult, facing a Villa side who are imperious at home despite their own patchy form. Villa may have lost four of their last seven Premier League games, but they’re unbeaten in each of their last seven at Villa Park (four wins, three draws).
The Villans have also impressed on home soil during their return to the Champions League, taking seven points from three games, including the scalp of Bayern Munich back in October when Jhon Durán scored a late winner for a 1-0 victory.
They’ve been somewhat unlucky in the Premier League so far, too, conceding 25 goals this season from an xG against of 19.5, shipping around five more goals than would be expected (5.5). Only Wolves (40 goals conceded, 27.6 xGA) have a worse such record this term (-12.4).
Their mixed form means they head into their home game with City in seventh, though they’re just three points off fourth-placed surprise package Nottingham Forest.
In terms of injury news, Leon Bailey and Tyrone Mings may both be fit to feature for Unai Emery’s men, though Jacob Ramsey isn’t expected back until the New Year.
City’s shocking downturn in form has largely coincided with Ballon d’Or winner Rodri’s ACL injury, which will keep him out until next season.
Guardiola will also be without Oscar Bobb and Nathan Aké on Saturday, though Manuel Akanji may feature, while Rico Lewis will also be available after serving his one-game suspension for a red card suffered in the draw at Crystal Palace earlier this month.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City Head-to-Head
Villa won this exact fixture 1-0 last season but haven’t won consecutive home league meetings with City since April 1993.
Only against Newcastle United have City won more Premier League games (31) and scored more Premier League goals (102) than they have against Villa (30 wins, 98 goals).
The last meeting between the sides was back in April when a Foden hat-trick and a goal from Rodri helped City to a comfortable 4-1 victory.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City Prediction
Many believe they are seeing the end of a dynasty with Guardiola’s City, yet they remain favoured by the Opta supercomputer for the clash with Villa, coming out on top in 43.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Villa may fancy their chances of condemning City to yet another defeat, and they do so 30.5% of the time. A draw, meanwhile, occurs in 25.8% of simulations.
Somewhat unbelievably, City are now fourth-favourites for the title, given just a 1.8% chance behind favourites Liverpool (82.3%), as well as Arsenal (10.1%) and Chelsea (5.8%).
The top four will likely still be Villa’s main goal, though their hopes of repeating last season’s heroics of finishing in the Champions League spots are rated at just 4.0%, with sixth their most likely finish.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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