Can Unai Emery’s side keep up their fine run at home in the Premier League? We look ahead to Sunday’s clash with our Aston Villa vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Aston Villa vs West Ham Stats: The Key Insights
- Aston Villa are the favourites against West Ham, winning 58.6% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
- Ollie Watkins needs one goal involvement to become the fastest Premier League player to 100 goals and assists combined since July 2020.
- Only Arsenal (14) can better Villa’s 10-match unbeaten run at home in the competition.
Graham Potter will take charge of his first Premier League away game as West Ham boss when they visit Aston Villa on Sunday.
Only three West Ham managers have won their first Premier League game on the road – Trevor Booking in 2003, Slaven Bilic in 2015 and Julen Lopetegui earlier this season. The last team to have two managers win their first away game in the same season was Chelsea in 2008-09 (Felipe Scolari and Guus Hiddink).
West Ham’s new head coach has already visited Villa Park once this year, however, losing 2-1 in the FA Cup third round in Potter’s first game after replacing Lopetegui. They could become the first Premier League side to lose consecutive away games against the same team since Everton against Bournemouth in November 2022.
The visitors’ away form is concerning, too, considering that West Ham have lost 10 of their last 16 matches on the road (W3 D3). Visiting Villa Park next will also be a thankless task given the home form of Unai Emery’s side.
Indeed, only Arsenal (14) are on a longer home unbeaten run in the Premier League than Villa (10 – W6 D4). Villa have only had three previous runs of 11+ unbeaten games at Villa Park, most recently between March and December 2023 when they won 16 out of 17 games (D1) to help them to UEFA Champions League qualification.
Villa were 1-0 losers to Monaco in that European competition on Tuesday, with their attention turning back to top-flight action, where they sit eighth in the table. Emery’s side managed a 2-2 comeback draw away to Arsenal last time out in the league.
Ollie Watkins equalised at the Emirates Stadium and has now been involved in 99 Premier League goals in 168 appearances for Villa (69 goals, 30 assists). On Sunday, he could become the fastest player to 100 goal involvements since Kevin De Bruyne in July 2020 (155th game), and the fastest Englishman since Harry Kane in November 2017 (128th game).
Youri Tielemans‘ diving header kick-started that comeback against Arsenal – in fact, no side has scored more headed Premier League goals this season than Villa (8). Tielemans has been involved in 50% of those (1 goal, 3 assists).
Potter may look on enviously with Watkins and Tielemans expected to be heavily involved again at Villa Park, considering West Ham will be without their own injured talisman Jarrod Bowen. They have lost five of their seven games since the start of last season without Bowen in the side.
West Ham, who are 14th in the Premier League table, will also be without Niclas Füllkrug and Michail Antonio as attacking options, while Crysencio Summerville‘s thigh injury will be assessed late on before Sunday’s trip. In defence, Jean-Clair Todibo and the suspended Konstantinos Mavropanos are also absent.
The Hammers can at least call upon ever-reliable goalkeeper Lukasz Fabianski, whose next Premier League appearance will be his 313th in the competition since he turned 30. That will move him level with Edwin van der Sar for games played while aged 30+; only Brad Friedel (425), Mark Schwarzer (375) and David James (329) have played more games after their 30th birthday.
In terms of Villa’s team news, John McGinn could return for Sunday, though Amadou Onana, Ross Barkley and Pau Torres remain out. Jhon Durán is back from suspension and could face the Hammers, who have reportedly lodged multiple transfer bids for the striker this month.
Aston Villa vs West Ham Head-to-Head
Villa were 2-1 winners at the London Stadium in August thanks to Durán’s late goal. Lucas Paquetá’s penalty had earlier cancelled out Onana’s early opener in the capital.
Emery’s side will now be looking to complete their first league double over West Ham since 2010-11, a season in which the Hammers finished bottom of the table.
Villa have also won two of their last three Premier League games against West Ham (D1), as many as they had in their previous 16 (D6 L8).
However, West Ham have not lost consecutive league trips to Villa since February 2013. Their 4-1 defeat at Villa Park last season ended a five-game unbeaten run away to Emery’s side in the Premier League.
Aston Villa vs West Ham Prediction
The Opta supercomputer leant significantly towards a home win as Villa triumphed in 58.6% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Without star forward Bowen, West Ham only triumphed in 19.9% of the same data-led sims, with the draw more likely at 21.5%.
Aston Villa vs West Ham Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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