You have to go outside the high-major ranks to find the best showings by first-year college basketball coaches. Danny Sprinkle’s built-from-scratch Utah State club sits tied atop the Mountain West standings after Tuesday’s dramatic overtime win over Fresno State. Ex-LSU coach Will Wade has McNeese State humming right along at 25-3 overall and 14-1 in the Southland. Green Bay was one of the worst programs in college basketball last year, but Sundance Wicks has the Phoenix positioned for a potential share of the Horizon League regular-season crown. Amir Abdur-Rahim’s remarkable turnaround of South Florida basketball is stunning. The Bulls have won 13 games in a row and have already clinched a share of the AAC title.
Those are the outliers. Most of the 10 new high-major coaches have struggled, as expected, to win big in the six power conferences. None are in the mix for a title, and only a handful enter March as no-doubt, NCAA Tournament teams.
Year 1 struggles are not a predictor that Year 2 will go poorly. Just ask South Carolina’s Lamont Paris who has the Gamecocks in the SEC Championship race after an 11-21 campaign last season. The opposite is fair game, too. Success in Year 1 is not a predictor that Year 2 will go smoothly. Just ask Mizzou’s Dennis Gates who is still searching for his first SEC win after a well-earned Big Dance bid last season.
It’s hard to consistently win in a college basketball landscape that features annual roster renovations. Throw four-year plans out the window.
“The work is never done,” Wicks told 247Sports. “That’s what’s so amazing about college basketball. The season ends, all these teams get back together and go, ‘What do we want for next year?’ We all get back together and the work is never done.”
Here’s an audit of the 10 first-year, high-major coaches: What’s gone right, what’s gone wrong and what to expect in an always-important 2024 transfer portal cycle.
Mark Madsen, Cal Golden Bears
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 146
Current KenPom rank: No. 105
The scoop: Cal was picked to finish 11th in the league standings, and Mark Madsen has the Golden Bears on the verge of a top-half finish. Cal is 9-9 in Pac-12 play after winning just 10 conference games in the last three years combined. The arrow is so clearly pointed up, and Stanford’s brass could be kicking itself for not pouncing on Madsen when he was available and instead, allowing him to revitalize a rival.
Early offseason lookahead: Madsen will likely enter the offseason needing to replace four of his best five players. Fardaws Aimaq, Jalen Cone and Keonte Kennedy are all out of eligibility, and Jaylon Tyson has erupted into a potential first-round pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. Madsen has to go big-game hunting in the portal again to hold serve ahead of Cal’s move to the ACC.
Kim English, Providence Friars
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 54
Current KenPom rank: No. 54
The scoop: Kim English has Providence on the verge of an NCAA Tournament bid despite losing All-Big East wing Bryce Hopkins to a season-ending knee injury in early January thanks to one of the nation’s best defenses. Providence doesn’t have elite size, but teams shoot just 49.6% at the rim against the Friars, and Creighton is the only other Big East team that forces more midrange jumpers than Providence. English has orchestrated Providence’s top-20 defense, and he’s one of three high-major coaches who could Dance in Year 1. Oh, and Devin Carter is a complete monster. The junior guard has erupted into one of the best players in the sport.
Early offseason lookahead: Josh Oduro and Ticket Gaines followed English from George Mason to Providence, and have been real life-savers for Providence this season. Both are out of eligibility, and Carter could be NBA-bound. There could be attrition at other spots for English to navigate. Providence’s sell in the portal should be pretty strong after Oduro’s sterling season, Carter’s eruption and Hopkins’ dominance last season. However, retaining the young building blocks will be vital for English to keep this train on the tracks.
Ed Cooley, Georgetown Hoyas
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 163
Current KenPom rank: No. 197
The scoop: Expectations weren’t very high for this young Georgetown group, but the Hoyas have still failed to meet even the lowest bar. Georgetown sits 9-19 overall and 2-15 in Big East play. DePaul is the only Big East program it has beaten, and there’s a cavernous gap between Georgetown and the top of the league. Marquette swept Georgetown with two sweat-free blowouts. UConn blitzed ‘em twice. Creighton won both matchups by 17 and 22, respectively. Villanova trucked Georgetown both times. Ed Cooley’s defense ranks 322nd nationally on KenPom, and opponents are shooting a whopping 56.7% on 2s against the Hoyas.
Early offseason lookahead: Portal, portal, portal. Cooley has some internal pieces that can help like Jayden Epps, Supreme Cook, Rowan Brumbaugh, Dontrez Styles and Drew Fielder, but Georgetown has to revamp this roster in a major way, via the portal. Multiple high-level reinforcements are needed to try to avoid the Big East basement in 2024-25.
Rick Pitino, St. John’s Red Storm
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 59
Current KenPom rank: No. 32
The scoop: Rick Pitino’s first season hasn’t gone as smoothly as some hoped. Those preseason Top 25 prophecies were a bit off, but the story is still unwritten. St. John’s is right on the cutline for the Big Dance, and it could go either way in the next few weeks. A strong finish could change the narrative around Pitino’s first season in a real way. Six of the nine Big East losses have come by six or fewer points, so St. John’s is clearly within striking distance, but it’s a piece or two away from being one of the top-four teams in the league. If Pitino sneaks into the Big Dance, that’d be a major win.
Early offseason lookahead: This roster will look vastly different next year. Joel Soriano, Jordan Dingle and Chris Ledlum headline a six-pack of fifth-year seniors who are out of eligibility. St. John’s can get stud point guard Daniss Jenkins for another season, but Pitino is likely looking at a big portal haul again. He won’t need 11 transfers like the 2023 cycle, but St. John’s will be extremely active in the coming months.
Grant McCasland, Texas Tech Red Raiders
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 45
Current KenPom rank: No. 38
The scoop: Grant McCasland has kept Texas Tech alive and well in the rough-and-tumble Big 12 despite some rough injury luck. Devan Cambridge suffered a season-ending knee injury in non-conference play, and uber-important center Warren Washington has been in and out of the lineup with a toe injury. At one point, Texas Tech was within a game of the Big 12 championship chase, but three losses when Washington was sidelined dashed that dream. Still, McCasland’s first season is shaping up to be a wild success story. Texas Tech’s transfers have all been super helpful, and Pop Isaacs has developed into a stud. McCasland had North Texas humming on the defensive end, but Texas Tech’s personnel has forced him to double down on offense by inserting snipers into the rotation and playing multiple small guards. The Red Raiders have the third-best offense during conference play. McCasland has been a chameleon, finding ways to win in any way possible.
Early offseason lookahead: Texas Tech’s backcourt should be in good shape if McCasland can get Pop Isaacs and Chance McMillian back for another season, but he’ll have to go hunting for some ready-to-play frontcourt depth to insert next to Darrion Williams. This core is strong, so Texas Tech should have no issues cobbling together another NCAA Tournament-caliber roster for 2024-25.
Mike Rhoades, Penn State Nittany Lions
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 85
Current KenPom rank: No. 92
The scoop: Like plenty of first-year coaches, Rhoades had to lean heavily on the portal to fill out a roster, and early results were a bit rocky. Penn State looked out of sorts during stretches in non-conference play, but it has shown legitimate signs of life lately. Penn State stunned both Wisconsin and Illinois at home, and it could emerge from the Big Ten fray with a .500 mark if it can knock off Minnesota and Maryland to close the regular-season slate. Penn State has climbed 35 spots on KenPom since early December. It’s not the bottom-of-the-barrel, Big Ten team that most projected in the preseason, thanks to the sixth-best halfcourt offense in the Big Ten, per Synergy.
Early offseason lookahead: Leading scorer Kanye Clary was dismissed from the team less than two weeks ago, and don’t be surprised if there’s a bit more attrition to this roster. Getting All-Big Ten guard Ace Baldwin back for his fifth season would be tremendous, but Penn State will likely hit Portal Season with multiple spots to fill and a couple starting gigs likely available.
Micah Shrewsberry, Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 165
Current KenPom rank: No. 129
The scoop: No high-major team is younger than Notre Dame. The Irish were tabbed to be one of the worst high-major teams in the country and yet, Notre Dame has won four of the last five games after Tuesday’s big-time win over Wake Forest. Notre Dame has the second-best defense during ACC play, and freshmen guards Markus Burton and Braeden Shrewsberry look like real needle-movers that Notre Dame can build around moving forward. Notre Dame in November compared to Notre Dame in February is unrecognizable. This young group is figuring it out.
Early offseason lookahead: Notre Dame has some institutional pitfalls to navigate in the transfer portal, but Micah Shrewsberry crushed it in the portal at Penn State, reeling in difference-makers like Jalen Pickett, Andrew Funk and Cam Wynter. Can he find some veterans who won’t rock the boat and just add to what Notre Dame is building? Notre Dame can get most of its young nucleus back next year, and the right veteran additions could help ND dance as soon as next year.
Chris Beard, Ole Miss Rebels
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 82
Current KenPom rank: No. 74
The scoop: Ole Miss’ 13-0 start piqued the attention of more than a few, but predictive metrics weren’t buying it and as expected, the Rebels have cooled off a bit during SEC play. Ole Miss has lost six of the last seven games, and its NCAA Tournament hopes are on life support. A Big Dance berth would’ve been a win for Chris Beard, but he’s certainly raised the benchmark of success for Ole Miss already. A Year 2 jump isn’t hard to envision.
Early offseason lookahead: There’s going to be some roster turnover here. Jamarion Sharp and Allen Flanigan are out of eligibility. Matt Murrell and Jaemyn Brakefield have interesting stay-or-go decisions to make, and it’s 2024, so guys entering the transfer portal will not be a surprise at all. Ole Miss was able to reel in some productive transfers in the 2023 cycle, and Beard is a strong bet to make waves in the portal again. This group isn’t far away from being really good in 2024-25.
Damon Stoudamire, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 118
Current KenPom rank: No. 133
The scoop: The flashes from Georgia Tech have been intriguing. The wins over Duke, Clemson and North Carolina (the ACC’s three best teams) are impressive. But a young, Georgia Tech squad, unsurprisingly, has struggled with inconsistency for pockets of ACC play. Those upset victories and Damon Stoudamire’s X’s and O’s give hope that something good is coming down the pipeline, but it might take some time.
Early offseason lookahead: Freshman point guard Nait George and freshman big man Baye Ndongo have been immediate-impact ballers for Georgia Tech. Keeping them around is paramount heading into 2025. Of course, Georgia Tech will have to do work in the portal to be a contender in a new-look ACC in 2024-25, and we’ll see what leading scorer Miles Kelly wants to do. If Kelly, George, Ndongo and Kowacie Reeves all run it back, there will be plenty of Georgia Tech buzz all offseason.
Rodney Terry, Texas Longhorns
Preseason KenPom rank: No. 16
Current KenPom rank: No. 27
The scoop: No first-year coach rates higher on KenPom than Texas, but Rodney Terry’s group hasn’t quite hit the gear that some anticipated. Max Abmas has been one of the top transfers in college basketball, Dylan Disu is a legitimate superstar and Dillon Mitchell, Tyrese Hunter and Kadin Shedrick form a talented trio of role players, but Texas is just 7-8 in Big 12 play. Maybe that’s just life in college basketball’s best conference. But there are fair questions about whether Terry has maximized the potential of this group. The most important time of the year is still left on the docket, and Texas has the talent level to play (and beat) anybody in the country. A March surge could squash those fears in a flash.
Early offseason lookahead: Terry has inked a top-10 recruiting class in 2024, but Texas will need to be big-game hunters in the portal to help replace Disu, Abmas and whoever decides to depart. Talent might not ever be a question with Texas, but the heat will turn up if the Longhorns are bounced early in the Big Dance.
