The big show of Australia’s cricketing summer is back. We’ve dissected the data to make some bold Big Bash League predictions ahead of the 14th edition of the tournament.
Big Bash League Winners: Brisbane Heat
The Brisbane Heat were nearly flawless on their way to being crowned Big Bash League winners in the 2023-24 season. The Heat won their first seven games of the season before going on to defeat perennial BBL juggernauts the Sydney Sixers in the final.
We predict that they’ll go back-to-back and win the Big Bash League 2024-25 campaign as well, thanks to a stable squad sprinkled with star talent.
The Heat’s bowling attack remains one of the best and most settled in the competition, taking 91 wickets at an average of 16.3 during BBL13. That attack was record-breaking, setting the best bowling average (16.3) and strike rate (13.7) of any team in a single Big Bash League tournament.
No team bowled out their opposition more times than the Heat last season (3), and they dismissed the Sydney Sixers for just 112 runs in the final to clinch victory after the Opta supercomputer gave them just a 23.6% chance of winning in the fourth over of the match.
There are several players in the Brisbane Heat squad being discussed for international caps this summer, with leadership trio Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne and Nathan McSweeney all part of the first Test series of the summer against India.
Batting centerpiece Matt Renshaw – who played 14 Tests for Australia from 2016 to 2023 – could be called up to the national side as well. Despite this, with players like Colin Munro in their lineup, the Heat are unlikely to suffer a shortage of capable batters.
Munro has scored more than 40 runs in half of his last 12 BBL innings, including two scores above 90, and began his BBL13 campaign with an unbeaten knock of 99 runs.
This reliability throughout the squad will be a major reason we’ll see the Brisbane Heat comfortably near the top of the Big Bash ladder again this season and we pick them to lift the trophy as Big Bash League champions once again.
Most Improved Team – Adelaide Strikers
It may seem odd to suggest that a team who qualified for the finals last Big Bash League season will be the most improved, but that destiny is well within the hands of the Adelaide Strikers. They could have one of the most explosive batting lineups if they can keep their squad at full-strength in BBL14.
The Strikers will be looking to get big seasons out of Chris Lynn and Alex Carey and will bank on the injection of Travis Head – currently the No. 1 ranked men’s T20I batter in the world – to propel them towards the top end of the Big Bash ladder and a place in the final.
Chris Lynn’s 60.8 batting average last season was the best of any batter to take the pitch for more than two innings, but he was there for only seven innings in total. That was his fewest in a season since batting only five times in 2017-18.
Lynn is synonymous with sixes in the BBL, and while he retains the hitting power to threaten cars in the parking lot, he’s also developed an all-round batting repertoire across the last few seasons.
Lynn has scored at least 25% of his runs through singles in each of the last three BBL campaigns after doing so only once in his previous six campaigns and has done this while still maintaining his big-hitting ability
Instead, it’s his dot ball rate which has dipped; he’s scored a run from at least 60% of his balls faced in three of his last four seasons after being below that figure in three seasons prior. He ticked the scoreboard over with 71.4% of his 185 balls faced last season, his highest percentage ever in the competition.
The Strikers’ season relies heavily on their batters hitting the top end of their potential. If they can, they’ll be within a shout of competing for their first championship since 2017-18.
To Finish Bottom of the Big Bash Ladder – Melbourne Stars
The Melbourne Stars haven’t featured in the Big Bash League finals since 2019-20 and are the only team not to feature in a single finals game across the last three seasons.
Not a lot has changed in the off-season that gives us confidence they’ll reverse their fortunes in BBL14, either. The Stars will soon have to deal with a post-Glenn Maxwell reality as their hero winds back his responsibilities, relinquishing the captaincy to Marcus Stoinis this season. The loss of Adam Zampa will also leave a void of experience in the squad.
The Stars’ hopes will be pinned squarely on the shoulders of English imports Tom Curran and Ben Duckett. While both players have history in the competition, they’ll need to have career years to drag the Stars off the bottom of the Big Bash League ladder.
Curran has taken just five and four wickets in his last two Big Bash League seasons after taking 22 in the 2019-20 campaign – the joint-most by an overseas bowler in the history of the competition. Duckett will feature in the league for just the second time after scoring 302 runs at an average of only 25.2 in 2021-22.
The Stars were at their best when their batters were backed into a corner last Big Bash League season, winning four of their last five games when they were chasing an opposition total on the day.
Stars fans may want to look away when their team is batting first though. They’ve not won after batting first since an 8-run win against the Adelaide Strikers on New Year’s Eve 2022.
That’s not a reliable formula for success, and we don’t expect it to be conducive to a happy Stars season in BBL14.
2024-25 Big Bash Top Run Scorer – Finn Allen
Perth Scorchers recruit Finn Allen is primed to become one of the most dangerous T20 batters in the world after turning down a contract with New Zealand to look abroad for domestic T20 opportunities.
As one of the perpetually competitive clubs in the Big Bash League, the Scorchers have had no shortage of batting talent in their ranks, but with the elevation of Aaron Hardie and Josh Inglis to national team duties in recent years, the value of a regular heavy hitter is huge to a team that expects to challenge for the championship.
Allen joins the Scorchers after truncated but impressive seasons for Wellington in the Super Smash and San Francisco in Major League Cricket, the latter of which saw him score 306 runs and hit a boundary once every 3.5 balls faced; that was the second-most frequent rate of any batter to face more than 20 deliveries in MLC 2024.
Closer to home, he scored 50+ runs in three of his last four innings in the Super Smash and has hit multiple sixes in each of his last six innings in the competition.
It’s no flash in the pan, either. Allen is one of just two players to have scored 500+ runs in a Super Smash season in the last decade alongside fellow Firebird Devon Conway.
Allen scored 512 runs at an average of 56.9 in the 2020-21 campaign – a season in which he scored six half-centuries – which helped Wellington to a three-win lead at the top of the table by season’s end and then a five-wicket win in the final against Canterbury.
Finishing as top run scorer would make Allen just the second overseas batter to achieve that feat in a season after Alex Hales scored 543 runs for the Sydney Thunder in 2020-21.
2024-25 Big Bash League Top Wicket Taker – Spencer Johnson
Certainly not deprived of premier bowling stock, the Brisbane Heat unearthed Spencer Johnson in early 2023 and he’s since enjoyed a meteoric rise in status in the format.
Since his 2023 entry to the scene, Johnson has been capped for Australia and has picked up substantial IPL deals with Gujarat Lions and Kolkata Knight Riders. This campaign could see him cement himself as the leader of a superb Heat bowling attack that includes the likes of Michael Neser, Mitchell Swepson, and last season’s leading wicket taker Xavier Bartlett.
Indeed, Johnson (19) was just one wicket behind Bartlett (20) on the wicket leaderboard in the 2023-24 Big Bash League campaign and with another year under his belt, we should see him take the next step to finish the upcoming season with more wickets than any other bowler.
The Adelaide-born Johnson took his 19 wickets last season at an average of 14.5, which was the second-best average of any bowler to deliver more than 12 overs in the campaign (Lloyd Pope, 14.2). He took at least one wicket in 10 of his 11 innings in BBL13, including nine wickets in his last three games and crucial figures of 4/26 against the Sydney Sixers in the final.
A career year for Johnson would make the Brisbane Heat tough to stop on their charge towards being crowned back-to-back Big Bash League champions.
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