We reveal our college football bowl game predictions in chronological order, along with TV channels, matchup information and TRACR rankings.
College football’s bowl system has gotten hard to navigate.
Hundreds of players will skip games either because they’re in the transfer portal or prepping for the NFL Draft. Coaching staffs are in flux, too, with interim coaches set to lead a handful of bowl teams while new staffs are still moving furniture into the facilities.
For the 36 non-College Football Playoff games, figuring out which ones will be good games – let alone who might win those games – is a tall task.
Fortunately, Opta Analyst is here to assist you. Here’s a selection of non-playoff bowls that look most enticing from an entertainment value perspective, with notes on what makes them compelling.
We’ve also enclosed TRACR win probabilities (projected winners) and SmartRatings, an AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings, for every non-playoff bowl. SmartRatings fall into these general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game) and 85-100 (Great Game).
Beware that player opt-outs make these projections very touch-and-go. Enjoy the win probabilities for entertainment value and to get a sense of what our model thinks of these teams’ bodies of work over the whole season.
We’ve listed them in chronological order, along with TV channels, matchup information (all times ET) and each team’s TRACR rankings.
TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) is a net efficiency metric that evaluates how well a team performs based on who they play.
2024 Non-Playoff Bowl Game Capsules
Celebration Bowl: FCS No. 18 Jackson State vs. FCS No. 20 S.C. State
The HBCU national championship is a rematch of the 2021 game, when South Carolina State put a 31-10 beating on Jackson State. The programs were much different then. S.C. State’s coach was the legendary Buddy Pough, who retired after 2023. Jackson State’s coach was Deion Sanders, who has since moved on to other pursuits. Chennis Berry now goes S.C. State; T.C. Taylor leads JSU.
The Tigers lost this game twice under Sanders and have yet to win it. In fact, since 2015, the SWAC has only won it over the MEAC twice. Jackson State is a slight favorite, according to what few betting odds exist for this FCS bout.
The No. 18 Tigers have one of the better quarterback-tailback tandems in the country in Jacobian Morgan and ball-carrier Irv Mulligan. But the best player in either HBCU conference this year was S.C. State quarterback Eric Phoenix, the Stats Perform HBCU+ National Player of the Year. Phoenix joined Berry in moving to S.C. State this year after a nice career at Division II Benedict College, and the QB-coach duo has quickly transformed a program that had slipped to a mediocre 5-6 in Pough’s last season.
Mulligan, the JSU tailback, finished second in the voting behind Phoenix.
Gasparilla Bowl: No. 43 Tulane vs. No. 10 Florida
- Dec. 20 in Tampa
- 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 57
- Projected Winner: Florida (84.5%)
On the one hand, this game is severely degraded. Tulane’s highly entertaining true freshman quarterback, Darian Mensah, is in the transfer portal. Being in the portal doesn’t completely rule out a player participating in their current team’s bowl game. (In fact, Florida’s Emory Jones played a bowl game while in the portal in 2022.)
But we can guess that Tulane won’t look a ton like the AAC championship contender it was this season. Edge defender Matthew Fobbs-White, one of Tulane’s best defensive players, is also in the portal.
On the other hand, this game should have some of the best young players in the country in it. Florida should have true freshman QB DJ Lagway, who transformed the offense after taking over midseason for an injured Graham Mertz. Lagway averaged 11.8 air yards per target to lead SEC starting quarterbacks, compared to 7.5 for Mertz, and made a handful of the prettiest throws of the season. (Not that he wasn’t uneven; a 5.2% pickable pass rate was one of the worst marks in the SEC.)
Meanwhile, Tulane should have running back Makhi Hughes, the fourth-leading rusher in the Group of Five. Hughes averaged 3.0 yards after contact, second in the G5 (minimum 130 carries) behind only the great Ashton Jeanty.
Hawaii Bowl: No. 89 South Florida vs. No. 91 San Jose State
- Dec. 24 in Honolulu
- 8:00 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 70
- Projected Winner: USF (54.2%)
The best receiver in college football this year was Nick Nash. The SJSU senior became only the fourth player to win the FBS receiving triple crown, leading the sport in receptions (104), yards (1,382), and receiving touchdowns (16). He even threw a pair of TDs.
Nash really was that good, too: He posted 111 “burns” on his 178 targets this year, a mile ahead of second-place Ricky White of UNLV with 77. The 34-burn difference between Nash and the next closest guy was the difference between second place and a guy outside the top 50 in burns.
SJSU hasn’t said that Nash won’t be playing, and the fact that he’s out of eligibility after this year means he isn’t a portal candidate. Mark down this game merely for the hope of seeing Nash play another college game, but also because it’s the lone game on Christmas Eve and nice background noise as you fade off into your holiday evening.
USF is no fun at all this season, but the Bulls posted an excellent 40.2% pressure rate against the pass and could at least heat up Spartans QB Emmett Brown (or whoever).
Alamo Bowl: No. 42 BYU vs. No. 37 Colorado
- Dec. 28 in San Antonio
- 7:30 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Colorado (53.2%)
Yep, that’s a Big 12-versus-Big 12 bowl game. How’s it possible? Because former Pac-12 teams like the Buffaloes are still working under Pac-12 bowl ties this season, as bowl relationships couldn’t keep pace with the breakneck speed of conference realignment.
The Alamo Bowl is often one of the most energetic non-playoff bowls, and that will be true again as long as Deion Sanders isn’t wrong when he says that his star players, Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, will play in this game.
BYU’s dream season fell apart after a 9-0 start gave way to a 1-2 finish and the team missed the Big 12 Championship. But the Cougars have an entertaining offense, led by some slippery wide receivers who have given QB Jake Retzlaff explosive outlets.
Darius Lassiter (92 targets, 63.0% burn rate) is the best of the bunch, but watch out for Chase Roberts (71 targets and a 34.0% big play rate) and Keelan Marion (a team-best 80.0% burn rate on 35 targets). Marion also has a kick return score this year.
Texas Bowl: No. 12 LSU vs. No. 41 Baylor
- Dec. 31 in Houston
- 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: LSU (81.5%)
Since Week 6, Baylor has had a top-five offense in college football by both yards per play and scoring, doing all of that against a Big 12 schedule. The Bears have not just had an elite offense for most of the season, but one of the small handful of the best anywhere.
In these weeks, Baylor is fourth in FBS in rushing success rate (49.8%) and fifth in passing success rate (48.6%). Other than a rotation offensive lineman, Baylor hasn’t lost anyone from the unit to the transfer portal yet, so it looks like Dave Aranda will have just about his full complement of offensive players. Those players are a lot of fun to watch.
Quarterback Sawyer Robertson revitalized the offense after taking the job in mid-September. Running backs Bryson Washington and Dawson Pendergrass both averaged 6.0 yards per carry, with similarly impressive after-contact stats (2.6 to 2.7 yards each). And Baylor has a whole suite of talented wide receivers, including the powerful Josh Cameron, who has a running back’s build and a receiver’s route-running ability. Cameron posted a 73.1% burn rate on 67 targets, dropping just one ball year and giving Baylor a 42.6% big play rate on his targets.
Watch Baylor in this game, and you will understand why the Bears will be a trendy pick next fall for the Big 12 title.
ReliaQuest Bowl: No. 3 Alabama vs. No. 34 Michigan
- Dec. 31 in Tampa
- 12 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Alabama (90.8%)
Just kidding. I have no thoughts on this game. Enjoy your New Year’s Eve.
Salute to Veterans Bowl: No. 79 South Alabama vs. No. 123 Western Michigan
- Dec. 14 in Montgomery, Ala.
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 64
- Projected Winner: South Alabama (88.9%)
Frisco Bowl: No. 76 Memphis vs. No. 59 West Virginia
- Dec. 17 in Frisco, Texas
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 66
- Projected Winner: West Virginia (71.1%)
Boca Raton Bowl: No. 84 James Madison vs. No. 99 Western Kentucky
- Dec. 18 in Boca Raton, Fla.
- 5:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 61
- Projected Winner: James Madison (66.8%)
LA Bowl: No. 68 UNLV vs. No. 60 California
- Dec. 18 in Inglewood, Calif.
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 64
- Projected Winner: Cal (67.5%)
New Orleans Bowl: No. 86 Georgia Southern vs. No. 97 Sam Houston
- Dec. 19 in New Orleans
- 7 p.m. | ESPN2
- SmartRating: 63
- Projected Winner: Georgia Southern (63.1%)
Cure Bowl: No. 82 Ohio vs. No. 85 Jacksonville State
- Dec. 20 in Orlando
- 12 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 64
- Projected Winner: Ohio (51.4%)
Myrtle Beach Bowl: No. 87 UTSA vs. No. 106 Coastal Carolina
- Dec. 23 in Conway, S.C.
- 11 a.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 63
- Projected Winner: UTSA (65.4%)
Potato Bowl: No. 90 Fresno State vs. No. 101 Northern Illinois
- Dec. 23 in Boise, Idaho
- 2:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: 64
- Projected Winner: Fresno State (58.2%)
GameAbove Sports Bowl: No. 51 Pittsburgh vs. No. 114 Toledo
- Dec. 26 in Detroit
- 2 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Pitt (94.2%)
Rate Bowl: No. 55 Rutgers vs. No. 24 Kansas State
- Dec. 26 in Phoenix
- 5:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Kansas State (81.9%)
68 Ventures Bowl: No. 93 Bowling Green vs. No. 120 Arkansas State
- Dec. 26 in Mobile, Ala.
- 9 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Bowling Green (78.2%)
Armed Forces Bowl: No. 22 Oklahoma vs. No. 58 Navy
- Dec. 27 in Fort Worth, Texas
- 12 or 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Oklahoma (83.3%)
Birmingham Bowl: No. 35 Georgia Tech vs. No. 40 Vanderbilt
- Dec. 27 in Birmingham, Ala.
- 12 or 3:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Georgia Tech (56.7%)
Liberty Bowl: No. 17 Arkansas vs. No. 54 Texas Tech
- Dec. 27 in Memphis, Tenn.
- 7 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Arkansas (84.4%)
Holiday Bowl: No. 61 Syracuse vs. No. 83 Washington State
- Dec. 27 in San Diego
- 8 p.m. | FOX
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Syracuse (77.3%)
Las Vegas Bowl: No. 15 Texas A&M vs. No. 21 USC
- Dec. 27 in Las Vegas
- 10:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Texas A&M (56.7%)
Fenway Bowl: No. 52 North Carolina vs. No. 70 UConn
- Dec. 28 in Boston
- 11 a.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: North Carolina (73.3%)
Pinstripe Bowl: No. 33 Nebraska vs. No. 50 Boston College
- Dec. 28 in New York
- 12 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Nebraska (67.1%)
New Mexico Bowl: No. 28 TCU vs. No. 73 Louisiana
- Dec. 28 in Albuquerque
- 2:15 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: TCU (89.3%)
Pop-Tarts Bowl: No. 18 Miami (FL) vs. No. 39 Iowa State
- Dec. 28 in Orlando, Fla.
- 3:30 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Miami (FL) (73.8%)
Arizona Bowl: No. 92 Colorado State vs. No. 98 Miami (OH)
- Dec. 28 in Tucson, Ariz.
- 4:30 p.m. | CW
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Colorado State (53.7%)
Military Bowl: No. 57 North Carolina State vs. No. 88 East Carolina
- Dec. 28 in Annapolis, Md.
- 5:45 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: NC State (83.8%)
Independence Bowl: No. 31 Army vs. No. 78 Marshall
- Dec. 28 in Shreveport, La.
- 9:15 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Army (75.0%)
Music City Bowl: No. 23 Missouri vs. No. 32 Iowa
- Dec. 30 in Nashville, Tenn.
- 2:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Missouri (64.8%)
Citrus Bowl: No. 13 South Carolina vs. No. 38 Illinois
- Dec. 31 in Orlando, Fla.
- 3 p.m. | ABC
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: South Carolina (79.2%)
Gator Bowl: No. 4 Ole Miss vs. No. 53 Duke
- Jan. 2 in Jacksonville, Fla.
- 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Ole Miss (96.0%)
First Responder Bowl: No. 75 Texas State vs. No. 80 North Texas
- Jan. 3 in Dallas
- 4 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Texas State (59.2%)
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: No. 26 Virginia Tech vs. No. 29 Minnesota
- Jan. 3 in Charlotte, N.C.
- 7:30 p.m. | ESPN
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Virginia Tech (56.6%)
Bahamas Bowl: No. 104 Liberty vs. No. 122 Buffalo
- Jan. 4 in Nassau, Bahamas
- 11 a.m. | ESPN2
- SmartRating: TBD
- Projected Winner: Liberty (73.9%)
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