We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League game at the Gtech Community Stadium with our Brentford vs Arsenal prediction and preview. The two teams will look to kick off 2025 with a London derby victory.
Brentford vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta supercomputer is backing Arsenal to make it four straight victories in all competitions, winning 62.1% of simulations.
- This is Arsenal’s ninth consecutive league game to be played in London, their longest such run of league games exclusively in the capital in their league history.
- Brentford have won their first league game in each of the past five calendar years.
Arsenal will bid to keep the pressure on Premier League leaders Liverpool when they take on Brentford at the Gtech Community Stadium on New Year’s Day.
Arsenal head into Wednesday’s game in third, nine points behind Arne Slot’s men at the top of the Premier League.
Liverpool’s form has provided their rivals with little encouragement in the title race, but Arsenal could be the side best placed to challenge the Reds. They will need to extend their current eight-game unbeaten league run if they are to do so, though.
Arsenal didn’t lose any of their 10 Premier League London derby matches in 2024, scoring five or more goals in half of them, as many times as they had in their previous 117 such games.
However, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta will hope his side can become more resilient at the back on the road after failing to keep a clean sheet in any of their last seven Premier League away games, having recorded nine shutouts in their previous 10 away from the Emirates Stadium.
Defensive fragilities have also been Brentford’s problem in 2024-25, with Thomas Frank’s side one of only two teams alongside Ipswich Town yet to keep a home clean sheet in the Premier League this term.
The Bees’ 2-0 defeat to surprise packages Nottingham Forest last time out on home soil was both their first loss and the first time they’ve failed to score at the Gtech Community Stadium this season.
That reverse, followed up by a goalless draw at Brighton last time out, means Brentford head into Matchday 19 in 12th, comfortably mid-table but off the pace of the European spots after a run of just one win in five league games.
Brentford have also struggled in London derbies of late, winning one of their last 12 such games in the Premier League after going unbeaten in 14 between October 2022 and November 2023.
That poor record has been in spite of Bryan Mbeumo, who has accumulated 14 goals involvements (12 goals, two assists) in his last 15 Premier League London derbies.
Meanwhile, Arsenal’s Kai Havertz has had a hand in eight goals in his last eight such games in the competition (six goals, two assists).
In terms of team news, Arsenal will remain without key men in Bukayo Saka and Ben White, while Raheem Sterling and Takehiro Tomiyasu will also miss out.
Brentford’s list of absentees is even longer, including the likes of Ethan Pinnock, Kristoffer Ajer and Rico Henry. Ben Mee and Mark Flekken both went off injured in the 0-0 draw at Brighton and look outsiders to feature on Wednesday.
Brentford vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Since winning 2-0 against Arsenal in their first ever Premier League game in August 2021, Brentford are winless in their last five against the Gunners (one draw, four defeats).
Arsenal have won their last three away games against Brentford in all competitions without conceding a single goal. They last won four consecutive away games against an opponent while keeping a clean sheet each time against Sunderland between 2003 and 2008.
The last clash between the sides was back in March, when a late Havertz winner was enough for Arsenal to earn a 2-1 victory at the Emirates Stadium.
Brentford vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal are backed by the Opta supercomputer to extend their winning run on Wednesday, picking up three points on the road in 62.1% of 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Arsenal have only lost their first league game in one of the last nine calendar years, though that occurred in 17.1% of the sims for Wednesday’s game. Meanwhile, a draw is rated at a 20.8% probability.
Liverpool’s superb first half of 2024-25 means they are now firm favourites for the title, lifting the trophy in 91.3% of simulations, though Arsenal are now rated as their closest challengers, overturning the gap and claiming a first Premier League crown since the 2003-04 ‘Invincibles’ campaign 7.7% of the time.
Meanwhile, Brentford’s likeliest finish is 13th, safely in mid-table with just a 0.3% likelihood of going down, though the supercomputer also only gives them a 0.8% chance of reaching the UEFA Conference League places.
Brentford vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over on X, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.
