We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Arsenal prediction and preview. The Gunners are looking to build on their positive start to 2025.
Brighton vs Arsenal Stats: The Key Insights
- Arsenal are the favourites to come away with three points on Saturday, winning 51.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations.
- Arsenal have won three of their last five Premier League games against Brighton (D1 L1), as many as in their first 10.
- Brighton scored just 21 goals at the Amex in the Premier League in 2024, 25 fewer than the year before.
With leaders Liverpool not playing until Sunday, Arsenal have the chance to close the gap to the top when they travel to the Amex Stadium to face Brighton on Saturday.
After Wednesday’s 3-1 win over Brentford, Arsenal leapfrogged Nottingham Forest back into second and will move to within three points of Liverpool with another victory on Saturday, though the Reds do still have a game in hand.
The Gunners will feel confident they can push Liverpool all the way. No side won more points in the Premier League than Arsenal in 2024 (85), while they also equalled their most wins in a calendar year (26, level with 2004).
They will be hoping to emulate that again this year as they continue their bid for a first title since 2004, and after kicking off 2025 with another three points, Mikel Arteta’s men look to have found their rhythm.
But while Arsenal extended their unbeaten run to nine games, Brighton have stumbled lately and had to dig deep to salvage a 2-2 draw with Aston Villa last time out.
It was their third consecutive draw in the Premier League, and they are winless in seven (D5 L2) as Fabian Hürzeler struggles to recover the early season spark that saw them challenging in the top four.
Only three Premier League managers have ever overseen 10 draws in their first 20 games in the competition. Hürzeler will join that group if Brighton draw again this weekend.
However, perhaps more pressing is the fact Brighton scored just 21 top-flight goals at the Amex in 2024, a decrease of 25 from the 46 they netted there in 2023. In fact, they failed to score in six home games last year after only failing to score in one in 2023.
Arsenal’s recent record on the road offers Brighton hope, though. The Gunners have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last eight away matches, having recorded nine shutouts in 10 trips beforehand.
Kai Havertz missed Arsenal’s visit to Brentford with illness but has a fantastic record against Brighton. He’s scored in his last four Premier League games against them, including all three since he joined the Gunners.
His involvement could be especially key since Arsenal will be without the injured Bukayo Saka, who was directly involved in 28 Premier League goals for them in 2024 (15 goals, 13 assists). Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu are also absent.
Brighton will hope to welcome back Pervis Estupiñán and Adam Webster. The likes of Danny Welbeck, James Milner, Jack Hinshelwood and Ferdi Kadioglu, however, are all likely to miss out.
Brighton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won three of their last five Premier League games against Brighton (D1 L1), as many as they had in their first 10 against the Seagulls in the competition (D3 L4).
However, the 1-1 draw at the Emirates in August saw Arsenal drop points for the first time in the Premier League this season after João Pedro’s second-half equaliser.
Having been unbeaten in five consecutive home league meetings with Arsenal between 1982 and 2020 (W4 D1), Brighton have now lost three of their last four against the Gunners (D1).
Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal are expected to extend their unbeaten streak on Saturday, winning 51.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.
Brighton, meanwhile, return to winning ways in 24.9%. Given their recent results, it’s perhaps unsurprising that their chances of a draw (24.0%) are fairly high.
Brighton vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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