Chelsea are slight favourites with the Opta supercomputer to triumph in Saturday’s FA Cup fourth-round tie with Brighton. Look ahead to the game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Brighton vs Chelsea Stats: The Key Insights
- Chelsea are favourites to progress with the Opta supercomputer, given a 37.9% win probability.
- The Blues have progressed from 25 of their last 27 FA Cup fourth-round ties.
- Chelsea also made it past Brighton the last two times the sides met in the competition, though the last of those was over half a century ago.
Brighton will need to overturn a poor recent record against Chelsea if they are to progress in Saturday’s FA Cup fourth-round tie at the Amex Stadium.
Chelsea have racked up four straight wins against the Seagulls and only suffered defeat at the Amex once on their past 11 visits to the venue.
The last time these two sides met was in the Premier League last year. Chelsea won that game 4-2, but the main talking point was Cole Palmer‘s incredible four-goal salvo before half-time. He is the only Premier League player in history to score four goals in the first half of a league game.
The Blues have also progressed past Brighton the last two times they’ve met in the FA Cup, though you do have to go back 52 years for the last such occasion – winning a third-round tie 2-0 in the 1972-73 FA Cup. They also defeated Brighton 4-0 via a replay in the fourth round in 1967.
Perhaps more concerning for Brighton is Chelsea’s remarkable record in this round of the competition. The London club have progressed from 25 of their last 27 fourth-round ties, with the only exceptions coming against Everton in 2010-11 and Bradford City in 2014-15.
However, Brighton should have plenty of reasons for optimism themselves. Since their promotion to the Premier League in 2017, they have won five of their six FA Cup fourth-round matches, their only defeat coming in a 3-1 loss to Tottenham in the 2021-22 season.
One player who could be key for the hosts is forward Georginio Rutter. He has been directly involved in four goals (three goals, one assist) in his last two FA Cup appearances, which is an impressive return given he’s played just 101 minutes across those games.
Chelsea head into this tie with concerns over strikers Nicolas Jackson and Marc Guiu after both sustained knocks in Monday’s 2-1 win over West Ham. Jackson was forced off early in the second half, though manager Enzo Maresca later revealed that both players assured him they were fine. Roméo Lavia, Benoît Badiashile and Wesley Fofana remain sidelined.
Brighton have an extensive injury list, with head coach Fabian Hürzeler saying after the humiliating 7-0 defeat to Nottingham Forest that he is trying to address the issue with muscle injuries in his squad. Pervis Estupiñán, Mats Wieffer and Solly March are close to returning, though it remains to be seen if any of the trio will be risked against Chelsea. Carlos Baleba and Yasin Ayari could be involved, but James Milner, Ferdi Kadioglu, Jason Steele and Igor Julio are all sidelined.
Brighton vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
The omens do not look particularly good if you are a Seagulls fan this weekend. Brighton have lost each of their past four encounters with Chelsea in all competitions.
Moreover, they have managed just one win from the last 11 home matches with the Blues at the Amex Stadium, a trend they will need to buck to get their name into the hat for round five.
Brighton vs Chelsea Prediction
Given Chelsea’s impressive recent record against the Seagulls, it will come as little surprise to read they are considered favourites to reach the fifth round. But they are not favoured by much.
Enzo Maresca’s men are given a 37.9% chance of victory by the Opta supercomputer, with Brighton triumphing 36.0% of the time. The match goes to extra-time and possibly penalties in 27.1% of the pre-match simulations.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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