Saquon Barkley ran for 255 yards on Sunday night against the Los Angeles Rams. The performance on national television catapulted the Philadelphia Eagles running back into the 2024 NFL MVP race, but how do his stats and circumstances compare to those of previous MVP winners at his position?
Welcome to the NFL MVP race, Saquon Barkley. If he wasn’t already a clear-cut candidate before Week 12, the Philadelphia Eagles running back vaulted himself squarely into the conversation Sunday night with 302 total scrimmage yards and two rushing touchdowns in a win over the Los Angeles Rams.
Barkley now leads the league both in rushing yards (1,392) and scrimmage yards (1,649) and is on pace for 2,151 rushing yards and 2,548 total yards — both of which would break NFL single-season records. He’s also on pace for 19 total touchdowns. He’s a major reason why the Eagles are two games ahead in the NFC East race and one game behind the Detroit Lions for first place in the conference.
That’s all great and dandy, but can Barkley actually win the MVP this year? Only four running backs have won the award since 2000, and none since 2012 when Adrian Peterson broke a six-year drought for the position. The award has been limited to quarterbacks over the past 11 seasons, and only four running backs even cracked the top three in votes for MVP during that time.
The short answer is: Yes, Barkley can become the first since Peterson to win the award – if he keeps up this pace. At a basic level, those final-season numbers would be similar to that of other MVP-caliber running backs. The four winners since 2000 — Peterson, LaDanian Tomlinson, Shaun Alexander and Marshall Faulk — all tallied at least 2,000 total yards and/or at least 20 total touchdowns.
But a huge statistical season won’t be enough to deliver an MVP to Barkley. Three other elements were at play for these four running backs: Playing on a playoff team, a good narrative and the absence of a season-long QB performance that spoiled things for them.
MVP for many is a stats-based award. But humans vote, not robots. Emotion and storylines play a role in who takes home the trophy. And QBs, let’s face it, hog headlines and awards.
The Quarterback MVP Dealbreaker
MVP has typically been a quarterback award. There have been 47 quarterback winners since 1957, compared to just 18 running backs during that span. Nothing derails a running back’s MVP chances more than a good quarterback season. And for the purposes of this analysis, we define a “dealbreaker” quarterback — a QB season that overtakes any worthy running backs for the award — as one who fits the majority of these statistical numbers and/or rushes for more than 800 yards with five or more rushing scores.
- At least 4,500 passing yards
- At least 35 passing TDs
- Fewer than 11 interceptions
- A passer rating of at least 100
- On a playoff team
Faulk, Tomlinson and Alexander played in seasons without a dealbreaker quarterback. The outlier was 2012, when several quarterbacks could have been considered but Peterson still won the award. This is where some serious narrative came into play.
The top three passers that year (Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford and Tony Romo) had great statistical seasons on bad teams. The next three — Tom Brady, Matt Ryan and Peyton Manning — had MVP resumes but lacked the compelling storyline of Peterson’s comeback year. Not only had Peterson broken the 2,000-yard single-season rushing mark for the first time since 2003, but he also finished eight yards shy of Eric Dickinson’s 1984 record. Peterson accomplished this after he returned to the field just eight months removed from a season-ending ACL and PCL injury.
Narrative is hard to conceptualize, but it worked in Peterson’s favor in 2012. Barkley needs to set records to have it at that level. Playing for a new team at a high level isn’t quite playing with a new knee at a high level. But it remains to be seen if Barkley can set yardage records and if we’ll have a dealbreaker QB in 2024.
Running Back MVP Stats
OK, so let’s break down the most important markers of an MVP season for a running back, first statistically:
- At least 2,000 total yards (preferably mostly on a rushing side)
- A healthy amount of total touchdowns (20 is a good starting point)
Since 2000, 10 running backs have checked those boxes.
After that, we come to:
- No dealbreaker quarterback (as defined above)
- Plays on a playoff team (even better if they’re a No. 1 or No. 2 seed)
- Good narrative (record-breaking season or coming off major injury)
Tomlinson hit all five markers in 2006, as his 31 total touchdowns remains an NFL single-season record. Faulk hit four of the five, while Alexander and Peterson hit three. Only Peterson played with a dealbreaker quarterback during his season, but he had the narrative card.
There have been 10 other running backs since 2000 to hit at least three of the markers. But some overlapped seasons in which another running back won the award. That leaves six other running backs who had a shot to win MVP since 2001.
Only two of those qualified for the narrative marker, though: Jamal Lewis in 2003 and Chris Johnson in 2009. Lewis didn’t have a lot of touchdowns despite becoming the first running back since Dickinson to break 2,000 rushing yards, while Johnson became the first running back to break 2,500 scrimmage yards but played for an 8-8 Tennessee Titans team.
As for the others, a combination of playing in a season with a dealbreaker quarterback and/or no compelling narrative played a role in their inability to win MVP.
The Case for Saquon Barkley as MVP
OK, so let’s apply these markers to Barkley’s season if he maintains his pace:
- Total yards? Tentative check. He’ll get there if he remains on the field.
- Total touchdowns? Tentative check.
- Bad quarterback season? Tentative check. Quarterbacks like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Jared Goff and Patrick Mahomes have the pedigree to play spoiler to Barkley given their passing acumen, team success and dual-threat ability.
- On a playoff team? Statistically, this is still a tentative check but it’s a near certainty. The Eagles have a 99.4% chance to make the playoffs this year with an inside track to the NFC East and should grab at least the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
- Good narrative? It’s a check if he breaks NFL records.
This all points in a positive direction for Barkley’s MVP case. His résumé is strong enough to win the award, but there are a few pitfalls that could come on the horizon.
First and foremost, Barkley needs to maintain his yardage pace. While he’ll likely be one of the yardage leaders in the NFL this year, his ability to win the award will be predicated on him keeping that pace to help him break NFL records and also ward off another MVP-caliber running back in Derrick Henry.
Barkley also needs more touchdowns. While his 12 total scores are nice, he’s also failed to get into the end zone in five of his 11 games this season. Touchdowns matter in a stats-driven award, even if he has other markers on his side.
The biggest one that Barkley simply can’t control is how the quarterbacks play the rest of the season. Quarterback is still the most important position on the field and therefore get the benefit of the doubt when it comes to MVP awards.
Jackson and Allen both have the arms and the legs to explode in the second half of the season and also play on two of the best teams in the AFC. Even Goff could put together a MVP-caliber season on potentially the top team in the league, while Mahomes is always a threat to take the award. All four play on Super Bowl contenders, and their teams should be near the top of their respective conferences. Barkley’s own quarterback, Jalen Hurts, could even become the dealbreaker here if he continues to churn out yards through the air and on the ground.
Barkley also might not even be the only player at his position in the running for MVP. Ravens running back Derrick Henry is on pace for 1,877 yards and 18 touchdowns, but his big-play ability could bolster his numbers at any point over his final five games of the year. So while Barkley will be competing against a litany of quarterbacks for MVP, we shouldn’t discount Henry’s claim just yet.
It’s possible Barkley will put together the best MVP résumé for a running back since Peterson won in 2012. But as we’ve seen from history, that alone might not be enough to take home the award.
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