Among College Football Playoff running backs, Boise State’s Ashton Jeanty and Arizona State’s Cameron Skattebo have deservedly received the bulk of the spotlight.
But don’t sleep on 9-seed Tennessee (10-2) and 8-seed Ohio State (10-2). Both teams have excellent backfields. And whichever one has the best game in Saturday’s primetime showdown could determine who leaves Columbus a winner.
The Volunteers are led offensively by running back Dylan Sampson, who was named SEC Offensive Player of the Year earlier this month and has 256 carries, 1,485 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 22 touchdowns..
Ohio State struggled against the run in losses to Oregon and Michigan, allowing 327 yards and 73 carries (4.9 yards per attempt) combined.
Sampson has performed well against Associated Press-ranked opponents, rushing 45 times for 240 yards (5.3 yards per attempt) and three touchdowns. (h/t CFB Stats)
He’s third among CFP backs in missed tackles forced (70), only behind Jeanty and Skattebo.
Per CFB Stats data, Sampson has gained 51.9% of his yards (771) on first down. Ohio State has held opponents to 621 yards on 188 carries (3.3 yards per attempt) on first-down carries.
Sampson’s ability to keep Tennessee in favorable down-and-distance situations will be instrumental to its upset bid. Per ESPN Bet, Ohio State is a 7.5-point favorite.
A strong Sampson performance would also keep pressure off quarterback Nico Iamaleava.
The Vols offense hasn’t been able to reach its full potential because of a lackluster passing attack.
Iamaleava has particularly struggled on deep passes. Per Pro Football Focus data, Iamaleava ranks last among CFP quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks in adjusted completion percentage, which factors in receiver drops, on throws 20 or more yards downfield.
Play action is a large part of Tennessee’s offense, but that will only work against Ohio State if Sampson is a major factor.
Per PFF data, the Vols run play action on 59% of Iamaleava’s dropbacks, by far the most among starting CFP quarterbacks. His completion percentage is 8.8 percentage points higher on those plays (68.8%) than on standard dropbacks (60%).
Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has leaned on his run game — at times to the detriment of his team — throughout the season. Per Team Rankings, the Buckeyes rank 70th in pass rate (46.8%) despite featuring talented wide receivers, including senior Emeka Egbuka and freshman Jeremiah Smith.
Ohio State relies on the two-headed attack of TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. The duo has combined for 255 carries, 1,556 yards (6.1 yards per carry) and 14 touchdowns.
The Vols have an outstanding defensive front capable of bottling the Buckeyes rushing offense.
PFF credits Tennessee with 227 run-play stops, or “tackles that constitute a ‘failure’ for the offense,” the most among CFP teams. It ranks 10th in the country in tackles for loss (93).
A run-heavy Ohio State script would play into Tennessee’s strengths; however, as ESPN’s Bill Connelly wrote, “When things get tight, Ohio State tends to get conservative.”
Connelly noted that since the Buckeyes’ 32-31 road loss to CFP No. 1 Oregon (13-0), quarterback Will Howard “is just 17-for-31 for 174 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions when a game is within one score in the second half.”
Neither team appears to trust its quarterback fully. Both will likely stick to what they know in a game of this magnitude.
And by the end of Saturday night, the college football world will know Tennessee and Ohio State’s excellent running backs.
