The draw for the Champions League knockout stages has been made, but how has it changed each team’s hopes of winning it? The Opta supercomputer is here to answer that very question.
Finally, after four matches more than usual, we have reached the last 16 of the Champions League.
The 2024-25 campaign brought with it a new-look league phase in which each team played two more games than in the old-style group stage, plus a two-legged play-off round in which giants such as Manchester City, Milan and Juventus all crashed out.
We are, however, finally down to the last 16 teams. One of them will be crowned champions of Europe in Munich in May’s final.
Another key change to this season’s format is that in Friday’s draw for the knockout stages, each team’s path to the final was mapped out. That is, we now know who everyone’s possible opponents are through the quarter-finals and semi-finals, and which teams everyone will know they will avoid all the way until the final.
Champions League Last-16 Draw
- PSG vs Liverpool
- Club Brugge vs Aston Villa
- PSV Eindhoven vs Arsenal
- Real Madrid vs Atlético Madrid
- Benfica vs Barcelona
- Borussia Dortmund vs Lille
- Bayern Munich vs Bayer Leverkusen
- Feyenoord vs Inter Milan
With this information, in theory, we should be able to work out who has the easiest and toughest route to glory.
Well, we mere humans could do our best, but it would be nice to have the help of some kind of all-knowing machine to put an exact number on how the draw affected each team’s chances of going all the way.
Fortunately, the famed Opta supercomputer can tell us how every team’s hopes have changed as a result of knowing the identity of their potential opponents through the remainder of the competition.
Here are its findings.
After Liverpool finished top of the league phase, they went into the knockout draw as the tournament’s favourites to win the whole thing. However, they have been handed the toughest possible draw, with PSG up next in the round of 16, and their chances of winning the competition once again have dropped from 20.2% to 17.2% as a result.
However, even with the prospect of facing PSG in the next round, Aston Villa in the quarter-finals and one of Arsenal, Real Madrid or Atlético Madrid in the semis, Liverpool still have a greater chance of glory than any other team.
Arsenal have been hurt most by the draw, with their chances of winning a first ever Champions League title dropping more than anyone else. They will face PSV in the round of 16, whom they beat 4-0 at home in last season’s group stage (1-1 away) and will be confident of seeing off. However, with one of the Madrid sides awaiting in the quarters and possibly Liverpool in the semis, they have far from an easy path to winning the competition.
Having gone into the draw as second favourites, with a 16.8% chance of winning it, their chances are now rated at 13.6%, making them the third favourites.
They have been overtaken in the Opta supercomputer’s eyes by Barcelona, who finished second in the league phase and have avoided all of the aforementioned teams until the final, having been placed in the other side of the draw.
Facing Benfica in the round of 16 and then one of Borussia Dortmund or Lille in the quarters, the chances of Hansi Flick leading his side to glory have gone up by 2.7%, from 12.7% to 15.4%.
Bayer Leverkusen have been the second-biggest beneficiaries of the draw, seeing their hopes of winning the Champions League increase by 1.2%. Real Madrid saw their chances go up by 1.1%. Their round-of-16 opponents, rivals Atlético Madrid, saw their chances drop by 0.9%.
Inter remain fourth favourites to win it, with their chances of glory remaining roughly the same after the draw (12.7%). PSG’s chances (8.8%) didn’t change at all. Seven outsiders for the title retain a chance of under 1.5%.
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