Chelsea are strongly backed by the Opta supercomputer to pick up a win on Sunday, but Newcastle will be looking to head back north with a result. Look ahead to Sunday’s game
at Stamford Bridge with our Chelsea vs Newcastle United prediction and preview.
Chelsea vs Newcastle United Stats: The Key Insights
- The Opta Supercomputer ranks hosts Chelsea as the favourites for this clash, winning 50.4% of match simulations to Newcastle’s 24.5%.
- Newcastle have only won one Premier League game against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.
- The Magpies have lost five of their past seven Premier League matches played in London.
Newcastle United will have to overcome a Stamford Bridge hoodoo if they are to triumph over Chelsea in Sunday’s Premier League encounter.
On only one occasion have the Magpies emerged victorious at the venue from 29 attempts in the competition,. It does not make for particularly pleasant reading for Newcastle fans.
Moreover, the fixture comes at a difficult moment, too. Eddie Howe’s men began the campaign with three wins from four, securing a draw in the other, but have since failed to win from their last four top-flight outings (D2, L2). They last went five games without a win in the competition back in March 2023.
A slightly more optimistic note comes in the fact that two of Howe’s Premier League victories over Chelsea have come as Newcastle manager, with only Alan Pardew (four) registering more wins over the Blues in the competition as Magpies boss. He also defeated Chelsea with Bournemouth four times, so he can become only the third manager to chalk up three-plus Premier League wins against Chelsea with two different clubs after Kenny Dalglish (Blackburn Rovers and Liverpool) and David Moyes (Everton and West Ham).
Key to Newcastle’s hopes could be the away form of winger Harvey Barnes, who has registered four goal involvements in his past five away Premier League matches (three goals, one assist) and netting on his previous two trips to the capital against Brentford and Fulham. Only Peter Beardsley (1994) and Callum Wilson (2020) have scored on three consecutive London trips for Newcastle.
Chelsea fell to a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool last weekend and their past three losses in the competition have now come against last season’s top-three sides (Arsenal, Manchester City and Liverpool). Against all other sides, the Blues are now unbeaten in 19 games (W13, D6), scoring 54 goals in the process.
It will come as absolutely no surprise to learn that Cole Palmer has been hugely influential for the Blues. The England star has 18 goals and five assists from his previous 14 top-flight appearances at Stamford Bridge for Chelsea, and he averages a goal or assist every 63 minutes at the venue. Of players to have featured in 1,000+ minutes at a stadium, only Erling Haaland at the Etihad Stadium has a better ratio (he averages a goal or assist every 57 minutes there).
Nicolas Jackson is becoming increasingly influential, too, with the striker involved in 13 goals in as many Premier League appearances (nine goals, four assists). He also opened the scoring in a 3-2 victory against Newcastle back in March.
Look for Chelsea to continue putting faith in youth, too. They have the youngest average starting XI in the Premier League this season (23 years, 220 days) with Tosin Adarabioyo their oldest player so far (27). They are consequently the only team in Premier League history to go eight games into a season without using anyone over the age of 27.
Enzo Maresca was able to welcome back Reece James and Roméo Lavia against Liverpool, but may have to manage both carefully for Chelsea. Howe, meanwhile, is still without long-term absentees Sven Botman and Jamaal Lascelles, while Kieran Trippier was absent against Brighton with a hamstring injury. Striker Callum Wilson has been missing since the summer due to a combination of hamstring and back injuries but has been back in training and may come into contention.
Chelsea vs Newcastle United Head-to-Head
Newcastle have a pretty abysmal record at Stamford Bridge. It is something they will have to rectify to earn three points here.
In 29 Premier League visits to Chelsea, the Magpies have emerged victorious on only one occasion, a 2-0 victory in May 2012.
Chelsea have won 21 and drawn seven of the other 28 such encounters, so historically the Blues have dominated this fixture on home ground.
But, on a more optimistic note for the Toon Army, Newcastle have won two of their four previous top-flight encounters with Chelsea (drawing one and losing the other), including last November’s 4-1 home win (above). They had previous won only two of their previous 13 meetings (D1, L10).
Chelsea vs Newcastle United Prediction
Chelsea are ranked as the clear favourites with the Opta Supercomputer for this one, coming out on top on 50.4% occasions from the 10,000 simulations conducted.
By contrast, Newcastle triumphed 24.5% of the time, while the draw occurred on slightly more occasions, with a 25.1% probability thrown up.
In terms of the season as a whole, the Blues find themselves sixth in the actual Premier League table but are most heavily predicted to finish fourth (27.7%) and still possess a 0.1% chance of winning the title according to the supercomputer.
Newcastle currently sit ninth and are predicted to finish seventh (15.5%), while there is a 6.4% probability of ending fourth come the end of the season.
Chelsea vs Newcastle United Predicted Lineups
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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