Our college basketball WAR metric explains who are the hardest players to replace this season. The top 10 includes standouts from the best teams, but also a couple under the radar.
Like any other tool, one has to know how to utilize advanced analytics.
In Division I men’s basketball, they can help determine how you value the top players this season.
In our men’s basketball Wins Above Replacement and VAPR metrics, the easiest way to determine what they value is by looking at players at the top of the list and identifying what makes each of them elite. Their WAR tells us how many wins each would add over a “replacement” player over the course of a season.
We’ve compiled the top-10 Division I players by WAR this season and broken down their leading attributes (player statistics and WAR are through Jan. 27).
1. Braden Smith, Purdue
In terms of WAR, Braden Smith has a decent lead nationally.
That doesn’t necessarily mean he’s been the best player in Division I men’s basketball, it means he’s provided the most value to his team. Remember, WAR is a counting statistic, so the fact Smith has played the most minutes among major conference players is a big factor.
In terms of VAPR (Value Added Performance Rating), which is a rate statistic designed to measure how well a player has played on a per-minute basis, Smith is tied for third. His heavy minutes provide the bigger picture of WAR, but Smith also has been an incredibly good player this season.
What makes Smith pop more in our model than he does on screen?
His lethal shooting combined with a high volume of 3-point attempts helps. He’s shooting 38% on 3-pointers and over 46% of his shots have come from behind the arc. His spacing has allowed the rebranded Purdue offense to survive without Zach Edey, the literal centerpiece of last season’s national runner-up squad.
Couple that with Smith’s stellar playmaking – he leads all major conference players with 8.9 assists per game – and he rates as the third-best offensive player in the country by O-VAPR.
While he’s not a top stopper on defense, he ranks in the top 100 and generates a ton of steals. In fact, he’s fifth among major conference players with 2.38 steals per game.
2. Cooper Flagg, Duke
You’ll find a lot of players toward the top of basketball WAR fit the mold of Smith – elite playmaking guards on offense with enough of a defensive floor to not drag down their rankings.
Cooper Flagg is different, and if you’ve watched him play lately, you’ll notice he’s also different. We wrote in early December about how Flagg was poised for a star turn, and he’s proven us right since then. His efficiency has improved dramatically on offense and he’s kept the defensive edge that makes him special on that end.
He’s checked every box during the ACC schedule and is by far the most impactful freshman in the country. He’s the only freshmen in the top 30 of WAR, and one of only two players who is top 10 in both O-VAPR (10th) and D-VAPR (fifth).
3. Kam Jones, Marquette
Kam Jones’s production is similar to Smith’s, but without the lethal shooting. Marquette has handed the offense to him, and he’s responded by upping his assists per game from 2.4 last season to 6.5 this season. He’s one of the best offensive hubs in the country, and that’s reflected in his O-VAPR, which ranks fifth-best.
Jones’ defense is similar to Smith’s as well – he’s not a stopper, but he’s in the top 100 in the country by virtue of his defensive playmaking and good instincts. If you can lift up an offense by yourself, not be a defensive liability, and play consistent minutes, you’re going to come out well in basketball WAR.
4. Javon Small, West Virginia
Javon Small is the type of player whose offensive game may not look that impressive at first glance, but the more you watch, the more you appreciate his style.
He’s a master at keeping defenders off-balance. He’ll shoot a lot of 3-pointers, but he’s also capable of getting to the rim, often drawing fouls. He’s top 20 among major conference players in both free throw attempts per game (6.0) and free throw percentage (88.6%).
There are only two players in the country averaging 19+ points per game and 5+ assists per game – Small and the player ahead of him in WAR, Kam Jones.
5. Zakai Zeigler, Tennessee
At 5-foot-9, Zakai Zeigler is smaller than the guards ahead of him on this list. He’s not a particularly good shooter, either.
So why does he come in so highly ranked in WAR? It’s largely because, unlike the other small guards on this list, he’s more than just a solid defender who racks up steals. He’s a true stalwart at the point of attack to embody Tennessee’s tenacious mindset. The Volunteers have a better defender in Jahmai Mashack, but Zeigler is right there in terms of defensive impact.
On the other end of the court, the team relies on him to be a true playmaker and offensive hub. You may not notice Zeigler doing all the scoring, but you will notice how much more smoothly the offense operates when he’s on the floor.
Couple his top-40 O-VAPR with top-30 D-VAPR and you’ll get a player who is worth more than his surface stats indicate.
6. Bennett Stirtz, Drake
Bennett Stirtz is a great example of a player who you might not have watched play, unless you’re locked in on Missouri Valley Conference basketball. If not, you’re missing out on a seriously impressive season.
Yes, a good portion of Stirtz’s basketball WAR comes from the fact he leads Division I in minutes per game. But it’s seriously impressive that he’s able to maintain his level of offensive efficiency with high workload.
Stirtz averages 17.7 points and 6.5 assists per game, and just 1.8 turnovers on average. That makes him one of only five Division I players who average 6+ assists per game and fewer than two turnovers per game. The only two players on that list scoring even 10 or more points per game are Stirtz and, you guessed it, Kam Jones again.
Overall, Stirtz’s efficiency, playmaking and usage have him ranked 13th in O-VAPR. Add in the minutes per game and he’s the most valuable player across the non-power conferences.
7. Chucky Hepburn, Louisville
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but Chucky Hepburn is a lead guard who’s an elite offensive player because of his ability to be an offensive hub for his team.
Hepburn ranks eighth in O-VAPR because he can score (15.5 points per game) and set up (6.5 assists per game).
At this point, you’re probably asking why WAR ascribes so much success to guards who can successfully be offensive hubs. The answer comes from the value of a replacement player.
In the NBA, a number of lead guards are capable of running an offense well. In the NCAA ranks, a smaller percentage of players at the point surely have the ability to evaluate an entire team’s offense.
Hepburn is one, however. Even though he isn’t a prolific shooter, his ability to raise the Louisville offense is captured by WAR.
8. Bruce Thornton, Ohio State
Bruce Thornton may be another undersized guard, but the shape of his production is different than the other guards at the top of this list.
Thornton is an above-average playmaker, but not elite, so he ranks outside the top 10 in O-VAPR. The reason he’s ranked 11th is his dynamic scoring ability – he’s one of only 11 major conference players with a 50%/40%/80% shooting line, and he averages 17.0 points per game in a tough Big Ten conference while playing 35 minutes per game.
Thornton is a willing and capable passer, and knows when to get the ball off early. More than just an efficient scorer, he’s a legitimate all-around offensive weapon.
9. Johni Broome, Auburn
Had he not missed two weeks with a sprained ankle this month, Johni Broome would likely top basketball WAR. He leads the nation in O-VAPR and ranks fourth in D-VAPR, giving him a comfortable lead over teammate Chad Baker-Mazara for first in overall VAPR.
The 6-10 Broome was a preseason All-American and hasn’t disappointed, averaging 17.8 points per game on 53% shooting. Among major conference players, he’s second in rebounds per game (10.9) and third in blocked shots per game (2.76). He’s also a willing passer, averaging 3.2 assists per game to just 1.1 turnover.
If he can avoid spraining his ankle again, he should be the frontrunner for national player of the year.
10. Ryan Nembhard, Gonzaga
Ryan Nembhard is especially strong offensively, leading the nation in assists per game (9.9) and shooting well (37.7%) on 3-point attempts.
But Nembhard isn’t quite a high-volume scorer, like other top-tier guards, as he averages 11.3 points per game on just 8.8 shots per game, so he’s 35th-best in O-VAPR. Couple that with his subpar defensive ranking – he’s only in the top 300 – and he comes out as 69th in VAPR. A very good player, no doubt, but nowhere near the top 10 like he is in WAR.
Nembhard’s WAR is bolstered by his 35.1 minutes per game. Every other player in the WAR top 10 is at least in the top 35 in VAPR.
Even with the high minutes, how can a player be ranked that much higher in WAR compared to VAPR? Well, it’s quite simple: Once you get past the truly elite offensive hubs in college basketball, the margins between players are extremely slim. The difference in WAR from Braden Smith (first) to Ryan Nembhard (10th) is the same as the distance from Nembhard to UCF’s Keyshawn Hall (156th).
When that many players are clumped closely together, minutes played ends up being a huge factor. The ability to sustain good play over several minutes is what sets Nembhard apart from a lot of other players in basketball WAR.
