The most meaningful conference championship weekend ever has arrived.
Five automatic bids in the expanded 2024 College Football Playoff are up for grabs, and either Boise State or UNLV will start the action by claiming in the Group of Five’s spot in Friday’s Mountain West Championship.
First-round byes are on the line even for teams that have already locked playoff spots, like Oregon, Penn State and Texas.
Heading into championship week, here’s a look at our projected playoff bracket:
There’s also the joy of actually winning a conference, something that used to be an enormous deal in a playoff-less sport but should still be special to the teams that get to hoist trophies.
For all nine FBS title games, I’ll share four things: one point of intrigue to keep an eye on while you watch, the game’s SmartRating, a win probability from Opta Analyst’s TRACR projection model (as of Wednesday), and my personal college football picks.
The SmartRatings excitement scale, which ranges from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz. The excitement scale translates: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
Conference USA: WKU at Jacksonville State
The Hilltoppers beat Jacksonville State on a last-moment field goal in the regular-season finale to clinch their spot in this game, but the Gamecocks have been CUSA’s strongest team all year.
That they’re only 3.5-point favorites at home isn’t because WKU just beat them, but because Jacksonville State QB Tyler Huff hurt an ankle in the third quarter and didn’t return.
A Friday night kickoff leaves a compressed schedule, and JSU coach Rich Rodriguez sounds uncertain about Huff’s status. Huff is a run-first QB and, in the tradition of Rodriguez’s old West Virginia teams, has formed a thunderous backfield duo with running back Tre Stewart – whose 35.6% big play rate is by far the best in the country among full-time starting running backs.
If Huff isn’t healthy, WKU can key on Stewart at the mesh point. Last week, Jacksonville State averaged 6.0 yards per run in the first half (with Huff healthy) and 4.2 in the second.
- SmartRating: 42
- TRACR Win Probability: Jacksonville State 57.6%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: WKU +3.5
American: Tulane at Army
The Green Wave knocked themselves out of the playoff race on Thanksgiving, when their third-down defense and vaunted running game simultaneously abandoned them against a Memphis team that finally figured out how to stop someone. It was an uncharacteristic showing, and I don’t think it will repeat in this game.
Wave head coach Jon Sumrall has an impressive track record of stopping triple-option teams, going back to his days as the head man at Troy, and Tulane’s big problem against run plays has been allowing explosive ones after holding up well down-to-down.
Army, led by QB Bryson Daily, is geared to take small chunks. I think Tulane will keep him in check.
- SmartRating: 65
- TRACR Win Probability: Army 51.8%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Tulane -5.5
Mountain West: UNLV at Boise State
The game of the night on Friday. You already know about Ashton Jeanty, who won’t break Barry Sanders’ rushing record but has remained ultra-elite as the season has progressed.
You may know less about the UNLV offense, which only made national news once this year: in September, when quarterback Matt Sluka quit the team amid a payment dispute. His replacement, Hajj-Malik Williams, has been a massive upgrade, providing value as a runner while posting a 76% well-thrown rate compared to an ugly 56.3% by Sluka.
Receiver Ricky White (71.2% burn rate on 104 targets) is one of the best in the sport and also blocks punts as a special teamer. The Runnin’ Rebels faltered on offense when they had a chance to beat Boise in late October, but there’s no reason they can’t fare better on Boise’s blue turf.
- SmartRating: 77
- TRACR Win Probability: Boise State 70.1%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Boise State -4
MAC: Ohio vs. Miami (OH)
The MAC hasn’t had a repeating conference champion since Northern Illinois in 2012. Miami would essentially be establishing a mini-dynasty by winning for the second year in a row, while Ohio is a stunning 0-5 in the MAC Championship.
The RedHawks have one of the best defenses in the Group of Five and, really, one of the better units at any level. They make the offense earn every yard, posting a 4.7% explosive play allowed rate, roughly half the national average. They’ve done that despite crowding the line of scrimmage, with a defensive heavy box percentage of 56.4%, ranking fifth in FBS.
What’s the rub, then? Miami rarely blitzes – just 14.3% of the time, one of FBS’ lowest rates – and trends to get its pressures with just four pass rushers. Ohio also has a plucky defense, particularly in the QB-pressuring department. Edge defenders Ben McNaboe and Bradley Weaver (a combined 62 pressures generated) will be critical in speeding up Miami supersenior QB Brett Gabbert.
- SmartRating: 37
- TRACR Win Probability: Ohio, 53.9%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Miami -2.5
Big 12: Iowa State vs. Arizona State
Iowa State might have the best tandem of receivers this side of Ohio State, with both Jayden Higgins and Jaylen Noel putting up brilliant numbers and leaving defensive backs dumbfounded all year.
Higgins led Big 12 receivers with 92 burns, and Noel was fifth with 67. Between them, they dropped five passes on 230 targets. Higgins drew 10 penalties, which tied him for the Big 12 lead with… Jordyn Tyson, the Arizona State standout who became one of the best players in the country as the season wore on.
Some bad news for the Sun Devils, then: Tyson is out of this game with an injury. ASU doesn’t have a No. 2 option anywhere near Noel or Higgins’ level, but the Sun Devils have managed to get the ball to Tyson despite defenses being keenly aware how much they want to do that.
Tyson is also a terror after the catch, averaging 6.2 additional yards after he secures the ball. No Big 12 regular has blended Tyson’s 12.3-yard average target depth and that kind of after-catch output, and ASU has nobody who can even come close to replacing him. ASU will need running back Cam Skattebo to carry tons of the load in this Big 12 Championship game.
- SmartRating: 70
- TRACR Win Probability: Iowa State 52.7%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Iowa State +2.5
SEC: Georgia vs. Texas
Has there been a more impressive position group lately than the Texas defensive line? Consider what the Longhorns lost after last year. Defensive tackle Byron Murphy was the Big 12’s defensive lineman of the year. His fellow tackle T’Vondre Sweat won the Outland Trophy. Both of them are in the NFL now.
Meanwhile, Texas still allowed just 4 yards per run play (15th in FBS) and generated an 8.3% sack rate (well above average) while only blitzing 20.4% of the time (well below). So much credit should go to fifth-year senior tackle Alfred Collins, who filled a DT position and posted an elite 18.5% run disruption rate. Vernon Broughton, a versatile lineman who’s played some inside and some outside, is not far behind at 16.2%. Last week, they were both key in keeping Texas A&M under 100 official rush yards.
Texas ranks No. 1 in the nation in both defensive TRACR and No. 1 in TRACR overall.
Obviously, that doesn’t matter if Quinn Ewers repeatedly gives the ball to Georgia defenders in the SEC Championship game, something he did when the teams met in mid-October.
- SmartRating: 82
- TRACR Win Probability: Texas 70.6%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Texas -2.5
Sun Belt: Marshall at Louisiana
Louisiana’s offense is outstanding and has remained productive the past few weeks with a backup quarterback. Ben Wooldridge did most of the work in getting the Ragin’ Cajuns to this point, but Chandler Fields, a backup for almost all of his six-year tenure in the program, has started the past two weeks with Woolridge hurt. Winning the Sun Belt Championship at home would be a great career capper.
Meanwhile, Marshall has a lot going on. Reports are swirling that the Thundering Herd’s head coach, Charles Huff, will shortly leave to become coach at Southern Miss. Watch edge defender Mike Green, who has been one of the scariest pass rushers in the country all season.
With 16 sacks, Green is a half-sack off the national lead and could take the title with a strong postseason. He’s done that despite only getting 34 pressures, a big number but not even tops in the Sun Belt. Green has been opportunistic in getting quarterbacks on the ground when he has the chance.
- SmartRating: 38
- TRACR Win Probability: Louisiana 62.4%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Marshall +5.5
Big Ten: Penn State vs. Oregon
Oregon looks like the best team in the country. The Ducks are a national title possibility whether they win this week and claim a bye or not.
Most interesting this week might be how good Tez Johnson looks. Oregon’s No. 1 receiver had three weeks off in November as he nursed a shoulder injury. He returned in a win against Washington last week and scored a touchdown, but he only had three catches for 37 yards as the Ducks gradually worked him back into action.
How juiced Johnson is for this game will affect the Ducks’ chances, of course, but also will offer some preview of what to expect in the playoff. (The Ducks will have either about two or about three more weeks before they play again.)
Penn State tight end Tyler Warren, the likely Mackey Award winner, gets lots of attention. And, look, Warren is good. But he’s no better at his job than Abdul Carter is at his. The Penn State edge defender, who has moved around the formation over the course of his career, has had a virtuoso season: 47 pressures (on a cartoonishly high 28.5% pressure rate on 165 pass rush snaps), 38 quarterback hurries, 11 adjusted sacks, and 24 run stuffs just in case anyone thought he was one-dimensional.
It feels insane to say Warren isn’t Penn State’s best player, but he’s not! Carter is.
- SmartRating: 82
- TRACR Win Probability: Penn State 53.1%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: Oregon -3.5
ACC: Clemson vs. SMU
Clemson has a chance to back into the playoff with an automatic bid after losing a home rivalry game to South Carolina last week. Meanwhile, SMU has a chance to authoritatively claim the No. 3 seed in its first year in the ACC – and maybe to claim an at-large bid in defeat in the ACC Championship game, though it’ll be close.
SMU is the most compelling team in this game by a wide margin, and the playoff will be more interesting if they can send Clemson far, far away from it. The Mustangs’ passing game is neat for how clean it is: Kevin Jennings has thrown just six pickable passes all year (a sparkling 2.11% pickable rate, one of the country’s best), and SMU’s receivers and tight ends have committed just two drops.
The offensive line and Jennings have allowed just a 3.2% sack rate, compared to a 5.5% national average. That’s how SMU has managed to have one of the best passing games in the country despite not targeting any one receiver more than Jordan Hudson’s 51 times and not having any skill-position players that a casual college football fan has ever heard of. Rhett Lashlee has coached a hell of a season.
- SmartRating: 75
- TRACR Win Probability: SMU 59.1%
- Kirshner’s Game Pick: SMU -2.5
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