College football midseason’s 14 biggest surprises, major disappointments

What a start to the 2024 season for the service academies — well, except for the Air Force. Undefeated Army and Navy are ranked for the first time since 1960. The Black Knights and Midshipmen have not been undefeated at this point in the season since 1945, putting them on a collision course for the American Athletic Championship and potential berth in the College Football Playoff. There is a big hurdle both sides must get over to be in the mix, however, with a matchup with Notre Dame on the schedule. There is a chance the two service academies could play for a conference title Dec. 6 before a rematch in the official Army-Navy Game Dec. 14 in Washington, D.C.

Nobody expected BYU to be 6-0. Not even a majority of Cougars fans thought it was a realistic possibility, especially considering the five-game losing streak to end 2023 — their first as a member of the Big 12. BYU has a legitimate defense under second-year coordinator Jay Hill, a long-time Utah assistant that spent nine seasons as a head coach at FCS Weber State. Former junior college quarterback Jake Retzlaff leads the BYU offense that has shown inconsistency at times. But regardless, the Cougars have passed every test in front of them so far this season as the only remaining undefeated team with wins against two current AP Top 25 teams.

Oklahoma State could easily be considered the most disappointing team in college football. Expectations were high, fueled by a roster loaded with returning veterans from a runner-up finish in the Big 12 Championship a year ago. Running back Ollie Gordon generated Heisman Trophy buzz in the offseason after leading the FBS in rushing with 1,732 yards in 2023. However, the Oklahoma State offense has been a disaster, with Gordon ranking 81st nationally in rushing yards (384) and averaging just 3.8 yards per carry. The Pokes are still searching for their first Big 12 win of the season as they sit at 3-3 overall — their worst start since 2007.

Pittsburgh ranked 13th (!!) in the ACC preseason poll, but now the Panthers are 6-0 for the first time since 1982. They have an outside chance at reaching the ACC Championship Game for the second time in four years if they can keep this hot streak going. Pat Narduzzi is on the list of most-impressive coaching performances. The transfer quarterback decision to bring in former Alabama reserve Eli Holstein — who is not far behind top ACC quarterbacks Cade Clubnik, Kyle McCord and Cam Ward. The former top-150 recruit has 1,700 yards passing, 15 touchdowns and just five interceptions. 

Illinois needed overtime and a big 2-point conversion stop against Purdue this past weekend to improve to 5-1 and continue its surprising start to the 2024 season. Still, take nothing away from what the Fighting Illini have accomplished thus far. Fourth-year head coach Bret Bielema has the opportunity to elevate Illinois from an underdog to a legitimate College Football Playoff contender, depending on the outcomes of the next two games against Michigan and Oregon. Veteran quarterback Luke Altmyer, a former four-star recruit, took his game to the next level this season with 14 passing touchdowns and just one interception through six starts.

All that offseason hype surrounding NC State and its chances at ACC Championship contention fizzled after struggles against Western Carolina in the opener. The Wolfpack sit at 3-4 overall with some work to do in the second half of the schedule if they want to make a bowl game for a third-straight season. NC State, led by longtime head coach Dave Doeren, had two early opportunities with games against Clemson and Tennessee in September, but allowed a combined 110 points in the two losses. The Wolfpack rank 113th nationally and second-worst in the ACC with 32.3 points allowed per game.

Vanderbilt pulled off the biggest upset of the season when it took down then-No. 1 Alabama 40-35, back in Week 6. The Commodores are just two wins away from securing bowl eligibility for the first time since 2018, and their two losses came by a combined seven points. It took some time and a few adjustments along the way, but fourth-year head coach Clark Lea is building Vanderbilt into a program that is no longer overlooked in the bottom of the SEC. New Mexico State transfer quarterback Diego Pavia emerged as one of the top stories in the first half of the season. In addition to his 1,116 yards passing with 10 touchdowns, Pavia also leads the Commodores with 388 yards rushing and two additional scores.

All those offseason roster moves and top-ranked transfer portal class simply did not pay off for Ole Miss. The heartbreaking loss at LSU in which the Rebels never trailed until the end of overtime was tough, but a stunning home defeat to Kentucky is inexcusable. Barring a turnaround, Ole Miss’ hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff are faded. The Rebels started 2024 inside the top 10. Now, they are one more loss away from dropping out completely.

Curt Cignetti is a winner. Indiana moved to 6-0 for the first time since 1967 and has an opportunity to extend that impressive start when it hosts Nebraska Saturday in Bloomington. The Hoosiers became the first FBS program to secure bowl eligibility with a quick turnaround under their new head coach. Cignetti arrived from James Madison where he led the Dukes to three double-digit wins and a transition to the FBS ranks. In 13 prior seasons as a college football head coach, Cignetti never finished with a losing record. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke quietly creeps up the Heisman Trophy odds list with his 1,752 yards passing and 16 total touchdowns. 

The decision for Auburn and head coach Hugh Freeze to not take a transfer quarterback significantly limited the ceiling in 2024. The Tigers are winless in the SEC with a 2-4 overall record at the midway point of the season, and the inconsistency from the quarterback position remains an issue. Veteran Payton Thorne and redshirt freshman Hank Brown have both taken snaps, but a combined nine interceptions simply will not suffice. None of the remaining six games on the Auburn schedule are against an opponent with a losing record. In fact, four of those teams sit at 5-1 — Alabama, Louisiana-Monroe, Missouri and Texas A&M.

Based on preseason expectations, USC is probably right where most expected it to be with some struggles to fully adjust to the Big Ten transition. But there was legitimate buzz about the Trojans being a contender after its Week 1 win against LSU back in early September. But, with just one win against a power conference opponent since then, USC and head coach Lincoln Riley are back to answer questions about what continues to go wrong. All three of the losses came on a scoring play in the final minute of regulation or overtime. Unfortunately, in the highly competitive expanded Big Ten, that level of near-success is simply not enough.

Florida State lost a significant amount of production from last season, with 10 players selected in the 2024 NFL Draft—the third-most among all programs nationally. Nevertheless, there was optimism that the Seminoles had effectively restocked their roster to maintain their position at the top of the ACC. Unfortunately, that belief could not be farther from reality, as they now find themselves in a shocking 1-5 hole to start the 2024 season. The decision to take former five-star quarterback prospect DJ Uiagalelei out of the transfer portal was a mistake. In five starts, he completed less than 54% of his passes with four touchdowns and six interceptions. It is mid-October and Florida State is left looking ahead to next season already.