We provide one big question to track and reveal our model’s college football playoff predictions for all four first-round games.
Welcome to the first first round of the 12-team College Football Playoff.
The top level of the sport has never played a national championship tournament on campus before, but it will get four of those games between Friday and Saturday.
All four teams with home-field advantage in the playoff field are favored by at least a touchdown, but odds are one or two of them will get into some trouble.
Who will that be? Let’s look for clues, provide one big question to track and reveal our model’s college football playoff bracket predictions for all four first-round games.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (Friday, Dec. 20)
One Big Question: Can Indiana maybe, possibly run the ball?
It’s going to be hard. The Hoosiers ran the ball a lot this year and mostly ran it well: a 51.8% run rate overall and a 44.% rushing success rate (40.0% national average), even while facing lots of defenders near the line of scrimmage. But they didn’t generate many big run plays, with an explosive run play rate of a middling 6.8%.
Their offensive linemen got blown up on run plays a lot, too, leaving backs Justice Ellison and Ty Son Lawton to salvage something out of nothing. A 45.1% run disruption-allowed rate was well below average (41.0%), and in a few games in particular, Indiana could barely move the ball on the ground at all. The scariest data point on the Hoosiers’ resume is a Nov. 9 win over Michigan in which IU ran for under 1.5 yards a pop. The situation was barely better when Ohio State blew out the Hoosiers on Nov. 23.
You can see the concern here. Notre Dame has one of the most ferocious defenses in the country and does a stout job against the run. The Irish love to load the defensive box and held teams to a 35.7% rushing success rate (38.6% national average). One of Notre Dame’s key interior defenders, Howard Cross, was out at the end of the regular season but looks poised to play on Friday. If you’re looking for Indiana to get yards on the ground, you may be looking for a long time.
That doesn’t mean Indiana doesn’t have a path. The Hoosiers have an excellent run defense themselves and were fourth in the country in yards allowed per called run play (3.5), holding up well in that department in their Michigan and Ohio State games. The Hoosiers also get lots of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and Notre Dame (which has been missing its starting left tackle all season) has had frequent issues protecting Riley Leonard.
The Hoosiers can win. It’s just that, as long as Indiana’s run game flounders against another elite defense, it will have to happen in a rock fight.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Notre Dame (62.0%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Notre Dame -7.5
No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (Saturday, Dec. 21)
One Big Question: How good is SMU’s defense?
The SMU offense is going to have problems in Happy Valley. That much seems inevitable. Penn State edge rusher rusher Abdul Carter (27.2% pressure rate, 10.0 adjusted sacks) might be the best defender in the sport. Carter is also a bear against the run, as are defensive tackle Zane Durant (20.0% run disruption rate) and most of the players who suit up on the Nittany Lion front.
Penn State’s team-wide run disruption rate of 60.5% is second in college football behind Indiana. SMU coach Rhett Lashlee could scheme up some touchdowns in this game, but the formula SMU deployed so often this year – get consistent yardage from tailback Brashard Smith and keep things moving with a decent pass game – won’t work.
Penn State’s 42.9% pressure rate (elite) against SMU’s 34.1% pressure-allowed rate (quite bad) may wind up telling the story of the afternoon. Carter could spend a lot of time near SMU QB Kevin Jennings.
SMU’s defense is better than it gets credit for, though. The Mustangs are one of the best teams in the country at preventing chunk run plays, something that will come in handy against the Penn State duo of Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen. Penn State’s inability to run in crunch time showed through when it lost to Ohio State after a turnover on downs at the goal line. The Lions’ ugly 46.0% run disruption-allowed rate tells that story.
Penn State has also had problems keeping Drew Allar clean, and SMU has a quietly deep group of edge rushers. Six SMU linemen have at least 6.0 adjusted sacks, led by edge rushers Jahfari Harvey and Elijah Roberts, who have 17.0 between them.
One other dynamic to watch: SMU has covered tight ends well this year. Penn State’s offense revolves around Mackey Award winner Tyler Warren, who has periodically taken over games and saved the PSU offense. SMU hasn’t given up more than 91 yards to tight ends in a game this season and has kept most of its opponents at that position under 50 yards.
I don’t think SMU can move the ball efficiently at Beaver Stadium, but I do think the Mustangs can muck things up a little bit for Drew Allar and company. The winner will move on to face Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty and third-seeded Boise State in the quarterfinals.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Penn State (68.7%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: SMU +8.5
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (Saturday, Dec. 21)
One Big Question: Can Clemson’s offensive line hold up?
I don’t think so. This is the least compelling matchup of the first round, involving a three-loss team that is not a threat to make a deep run and wouldn’t be much of a Cinderella story even if it did. Clemson’s problem in this game is that its offensive line is going to be food for a superior Texas front.
The Texas defensive line is nasty, with a handful of players who have developed into real stars as this season has gone on. Edge rushers Coin Simmons and Barryn Sorrell have combined for 20.0 adjusted sacks. Hybrid lineman Vernon Broughton has chipped in another 10.0. Edge Trey Moore has 7.0. Tackle Alfred Collins is one of the best run-stuffers in the country, with an 18.2% run disruption rate all on his own to lead the team.
The Clemson defense can play, and Texas has had its own run-blocking issues (and running back injury issues) all year. It won’t surprise anyone if Clemson edge rusher T.J. Parker sacks Ewers a few times, particularly with Texas star tackle Kelvin Banks coming off an injury.
But it’s asking a lot of Clemson’s defense to win a game in which the offense looks so overmatched at the point of attack. The winner will move on to face running back Cam Skattebo and the Arizona State Sun Devils, who won the Big 12 Championship game, in the quarterfinals.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Texas (91.9%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Texas -11.5
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 OSU (Saturday, Dec. 21)
One Big Question: Is Nico Iamaleava ready for his closeup?
Opta Analyst’s “heavy box percentage” stat measures how often the defense has more defenders in the box than the offense has players to account for them. The three FBS teams facing the lowest heavy box percentage in 2024 are the three you might guess: Air Force, Army, and Navy, all between 20-25%. After all, it’s hard to outnumber a team in the box when they put everyone in the box.
Next up, at 26.4%, is Tennessee. The Vols rate highly in this department every year, but defenses have reached a new level of “not loading up at the line of scrimmage” against them this year. Perhaps that’s out of fear of Iamaleava, who has been inconsistent (a 76.9% well-thrown rate, below the national average of 77.5%) but likes to air the ball out (11.0 average air yards per attempt) and has flashed brilliance in certain moments.
The main beneficiary of defenses’ bodies-off approach to the line of scrimmage has been running back Dylan Sampson, who gained 5.8 yards per carry and made first-team All-SEC. Tennessee was outnumbered in the box on 25.9% of Sampson’s snaps at running back, a much lower rate than any of his peers in the conference. Sampson took 193 carries against an even or offense-advantaged box – 59 more than anyone else in the SEC – and averaged 6.2 yards on them.
Is Sampson just a product of scheme, then? Absolutely not. He still averaged 4.7 yards on his 63 carries when Tennessee was outnumbered in the box, better than the 4.5-yard average in the SEC for running backs.
Expect Sampson to get a heavy dose of defenders in this game, though. Ohio State’s 48.2% bad box rate on defense was well above the national average, and the Buckeyes have the defensive back talent to take their chances with Iamaleava and Tennessee’s receivers rather than let Sampson eat them up all night.
The Vols’ chances will come down to Iamaleava, of course, but also to receivers like Bru McCoy and Squirrel White. Ohio State corners Davison Igbinosun (who has had occasional penalty problems) and Denzel Burke will determine how well coordinator Jim Knowles’ strategy shakes out.
The winner will move on to face Dan Lanning’s top-seeded Oregon Ducks in the quarterfinals.
- TRACR’s Projected Winner (With Probability): Ohio State (72.7%)
- Kirshner’s Pick: Tennessee +7.5
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